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A realistic view based on the implied odds
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:07 pm
The moneyline for the game right now (mid-market) is about 250 or ~71% chance Bama wins. That strikes me as about right. If you subtract a little bit for historical bias, maybe it gets down to 65%.
Stated differently - LSU has a pretty good chance to go into Bryant Denny and get an important November win.
I'm looking forward to being there in person, but I have very tempered expectations...especially since the Tigers aren't out of it even if they lose.
Don't buy into the hype that Bama isn't good or that LSU is actually massively favored. Make no mistake - this is a difficult task that probably requires the ball to bounce our way once or twice.
No matter what, I expect it to be an epic night. And I also think if LSU wins, Burrow is a near lock for the Heisman!
2011 Game - link directly to winning FG
Stated differently - LSU has a pretty good chance to go into Bryant Denny and get an important November win.
I'm looking forward to being there in person, but I have very tempered expectations...especially since the Tigers aren't out of it even if they lose.
Don't buy into the hype that Bama isn't good or that LSU is actually massively favored. Make no mistake - this is a difficult task that probably requires the ball to bounce our way once or twice.
No matter what, I expect it to be an epic night. And I also think if LSU wins, Burrow is a near lock for the Heisman!
2011 Game - link directly to winning FG
9
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:16 pm to Big Scrub TX
.
This post was edited on 5/3/21 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:19 pm to Nobelium
Joe is about to go off
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:21 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Don't buy into the hype that Bama isn't good or that LSU is actually massively favored
Nobody actually thinks that.
Posted on 11/5/19 at 6:41 pm to Big Scrub TX
Bama 56
Lsu 13
Lsu 13
Posted on 11/5/19 at 7:26 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
but I have very tempered expectations
I do too, but only because the REC/Refs vowed after 2011 (and the Eric Reid interception in particular) that LSU would never win another game in the series that could be swayed in Bama’s favor with 10-12 abhorrent calls.
I think with Trump in attendance, the REC will see this as an opportunity to swing their dick and let everyone know their reach and the scope of their power. They’re looking to make a statement and this is their perfect opportunity.
I think we win with officials from any other conference. Unfortunately, SEC refs’ primary responsibility is to aid and abet Bama any way they can. Serving as referees/officials is secondary to their mission. It’s the cover they use to secure their desired outcomes.
If they do to us what they did to Tennessee (and us in years past), BDS should be nothing but charred debris and ashes by Sunday morning.
Posted on 11/5/19 at 7:30 pm to Big Scrub TX
LSU is a lock.
Posted on 11/5/19 at 7:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
We all know odds don’t mean shite for this game. If LSU plays a good game it will be close or LSU wins. Gotta have it.
Posted on 11/5/19 at 7:41 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Stated differently - LSU has a pretty good chance to go into Bryant Denny and get an important November win.
A 29-35% chance is "pretty good"??
Posted on 11/5/19 at 7:52 pm to Beef Supreme
At this point I’d forgotten which game those two Bama crying fans was from. Excellent.
Posted on 11/5/19 at 8:02 pm to Beef Supreme
Better than 0%
Posted on 11/5/19 at 8:08 pm to Cadello
quote:
Better than 0%
Posted on 11/6/19 at 1:57 pm to Beef Supreme
quote:You're gottdamned right it is - a 1 in 3 chance to win @ Bryant Denny? Take it.
A 29-35% chance is "pretty good"??
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:05 pm to Big Scrub TX
The moneyline is down to 220, which is about 67%.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:10 pm to Tiger Ryno
quote:
Bama 56 Lsu 13
I'll ban bet you that is not the score. You in?
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:10 pm to Philippines4LSU
Trump in attendance is actually a deterrent for rampant cheating by the REC refs. Why you think folks like Rohan muttering about Saban not liking the distraction of Trump being in attendance?
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:42 pm to Big Scrub TX
Where the heck did you ever see the line at 250?
I have seen it 225 to 190
Edit - Never mind you meant Bama's number
I have seen it 225 to 190
Edit - Never mind you meant Bama's number
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:48 pm to Tiger Ryno
quote:
Bama 56
Lsu 13
I'd trade that for a Rispone win!
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:49 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think this is a FG game and unfortunately I have to give the edge to the bad guys. I'll say 41-38 Ala.
It comes down to coaching strategy, and while I think Brady and Aranda are very smart guys, I don't know that they are in Saban's class. I think he will find a way to get pressure on Burrow. And I think he'll expose our weak link in the secondary (Vincent.)
I think LSU should blitz, blitz, blitz, and show some things on offense we haven't shown, perhaps some misdirection, more screen passes to backs (if they are well-executed and set up). Certainly Burrow and his receivers have been phenomenal this year but you can't throw to them if you're on your back or running for your life.
It comes down to coaching strategy, and while I think Brady and Aranda are very smart guys, I don't know that they are in Saban's class. I think he will find a way to get pressure on Burrow. And I think he'll expose our weak link in the secondary (Vincent.)
I think LSU should blitz, blitz, blitz, and show some things on offense we haven't shown, perhaps some misdirection, more screen passes to backs (if they are well-executed and set up). Certainly Burrow and his receivers have been phenomenal this year but you can't throw to them if you're on your back or running for your life.
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