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247Sports explains how they "missed" on Justin Jefferson as a recruit
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:17 am
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:17 am
LINK
247sports.com recently took a deep dive into how it miscalculated the college potential of legendary LSU WR Justin Jefferson so severely.
247 seems to revolve most of the blame around the fact that college coaches at the time were not giving Jefferson much attention.
247 provides a few theories as to why Jefferson received such little attention from premier programs. One was an academic elgibility issue. Second was a concern about his slender frame. And third was a concern that he was always going to LSU anyway.
247 does try to give themselves some props in the process of this article however.
One thing that really stood out to me from the article and the whole "college coaches didn't pay attention to him so we didn't either" argument is that it is procedurally contrary to what I believed recruiting services did to rank recruits.
I think the natural assumption is that recruiting services go out and evaluate/rank prospects and colleges choose who to scout based on those evaluations/rankings. However, it seems from this article that 247 is implying that this actually occurs (at least somewhat) in the reverse order. Coaches scout and recruit players and recruiting services, at least partially, base their rankings off of the level of interest a prospect gets.
All that to say it may not be entirely 247's or ESPN's or Rivals' fault if an LSU commit drops in ranking. They seem to look at what coaches in the industry say and if, for whatever reason, a recruit is not getting a ton of high-major interest that may shift whatever algorithm they use and force them to lower the recruit's numerical ranking.
247sports.com recently took a deep dive into how it miscalculated the college potential of legendary LSU WR Justin Jefferson so severely.
247 seems to revolve most of the blame around the fact that college coaches at the time were not giving Jefferson much attention.
quote:
But how did Jeffeson go so unnoticed? How did the recruiting industry miss so badly?
Let 247Sports explain. 247Sports Director of Scouting Barton Simmons doesn’t really remember Jefferson from high school. There’s a reason for that.
Few colleges were aware of his existence.
quote:
“From the industry perspective, it’s important to remember our goal is to evaluate and rank FBS prospects,” Simmons said. “Within that process, if a kid is not being offered by colleges, be that for grades, off the field or him not being good enough, we’re rarely going to take the time to dig into what he is as a prospect.
247 provides a few theories as to why Jefferson received such little attention from premier programs. One was an academic elgibility issue. Second was a concern about his slender frame. And third was a concern that he was always going to LSU anyway.
247 does try to give themselves some props in the process of this article however.
quote:
Sonny Shipp, who helps rank players in Louisiana for 247Sports, said the Top247 put a three-star ranking on Jefferson before his senior season. 247Sports is the only recruiting vehicle to rank Jefferson higher than a two-star.
One thing that really stood out to me from the article and the whole "college coaches didn't pay attention to him so we didn't either" argument is that it is procedurally contrary to what I believed recruiting services did to rank recruits.
I think the natural assumption is that recruiting services go out and evaluate/rank prospects and colleges choose who to scout based on those evaluations/rankings. However, it seems from this article that 247 is implying that this actually occurs (at least somewhat) in the reverse order. Coaches scout and recruit players and recruiting services, at least partially, base their rankings off of the level of interest a prospect gets.
All that to say it may not be entirely 247's or ESPN's or Rivals' fault if an LSU commit drops in ranking. They seem to look at what coaches in the industry say and if, for whatever reason, a recruit is not getting a ton of high-major interest that may shift whatever algorithm they use and force them to lower the recruit's numerical ranking.
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 7:25 am
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:20 am to PhillyFan1994
Proves the point that if Bama offers a recruit, they are suddenly a 5 star.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:23 am to tiger94gop
If Bama offers one, he’s probably about to get a ton more interest/offers from other coaches.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:27 am to PhillyFan1994
There are over a thousand recruits that have interest from top schools. It’s not realistic to think the recruiting services look at all of them. It doesn’t mean their rankings are bad, but there are misses.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:29 am to PhillyFan1994
quote:
However, it seems from this article that 247 is implying that this actually occurs (at least somewhat) in the reverse order. Coaches scout and recruit players and recruiting services, at least partially, base their rankings off of the level of interest a prospect gets.
Football coaches exist to win games and they try to get the best players they can find.
Recruiting services exist to get you to part with your money. The biggest thing you can look at is an offer list, and even that is probably not accurate when you are looking at a kid that stays quiet and commits to his hometown school without much fanfare.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:31 am to 1609tiger
quote:
It’s not realistic to think the recruiting services look at all of them.
So it is not realistic to think that recruiting services can view 1000+ kids even though they choose to rank 1000+ kids? Justin Jefferson was the #2164 prospect in the country. Are these recruiting services ranking kids they have never seen before?
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 7:33 am
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:37 am to PhillyFan1994
This is the exact thing happening to that coleman kid at opelousas catholic right now. These guys are missing the boat. He may be best athlete in our state
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:38 am to PhillyFan1994
It’s largely a racket.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:42 am to PhillyFan1994
quote:think
they choose to rank 1000+ kids? Justin Jefferson was the #2164 prospect
how good 2163 was.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:44 am to tiger94gop
quote:
Proves the point that if Bama offers a recruit, they are suddenly a 5 star.
It really does imply that the prestige of the offers drives the ranking. So the Bama bump is real.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:46 am to BayouCowboy
Yes, they admitted that. Saban’s evaluations are much better than 247’s and they trust him more, hence the Bama Bump
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:47 am to PhillyFan1994
It's interested that he was so unknown, even though both his brothers were top 250 recruits and star players at LSU
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:48 am to Crimsontide1713
quote:
Yes, they admitted that. Saban’s evaluations are much better than 247’s and they trust him more, hence the Bama Bump
What about a reevaluation if they are pulled over and find to have narcotics and stolen guns? Can they then “Bama Dump” and downgrade them?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:49 am to PhillyFan1994
So they essentially let the coaches do their work for them. Got it.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:50 am to Crimsontide1713
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you value offers from certain colleges, then those colleges will always have the best recruiting classes. It's a cycle.
I think recruiting services get too much credit, because they pay the most attention to 5-star players and anyone can see that those players are elite.
I think their track record on the mid-level players is atrocious.
I think recruiting services get too much credit, because they pay the most attention to 5-star players and anyone can see that those players are elite.
I think their track record on the mid-level players is atrocious.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:50 am to tiger94gop
you hit the nail on the head!
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:57 am to Crimsontide1713
quote:
Saban’s evaluations are much better than 247’s
If Saban says Ish is good, then he must not be a fat and lazy slob.
Sonny and Shea need to recognize they could bury Saban by intentionally mis-ranking Louisiana recruits.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 7:58 am to PhillyFan1994
Even if they use interest by different programs to help rank the players , they still provide a service by monitoring that. So some won’t be a 4 Star on ability but a 4,Star on interest. It’s up to the programs to do their homework and figure out which.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 8:08 am to 00 Tech Grad
quote:
If Bama offers one, he’s probably about to get a ton more interest/offers from other coaches.
Based on that article, and the comment above, wouldn't it be a good plan for Bama to offer a bunch of 3-4* athletes to get their exposure and interest from other teams up, then dump them shortly before signing day and get the big name guys they really want while sticking other schools with the less talented athletes?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 8:09 am to PhillyFan1994
They’re just reporting recruiting activity. They don’t evaluate and never have. It’s very rare that a kid this good goes under the radar so these type articles are hardly ever written.
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