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re: Lumber prices
Posted on 4/29/21 at 7:48 pm to Allthatfades
Posted on 4/29/21 at 7:48 pm to Allthatfades
quote:No they haven't and don't be a pussy.
Have they went down any? Or if not when are they forecast to? Trying to build a house later this year.
0
Posted on 4/29/21 at 8:27 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
On a 3,000 sq foot home that just got bid this week, I saw the lumber package at 180,000. That should have been around 95,000.
What. Where are you getting these numbers?
Posted on 4/29/21 at 8:44 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
On a 3,000 sq foot home that just got bid this week, I saw the lumber package at 180,000. That should have been around 95,000. Overall, on a 3,000 sq foot home, lumber can be from 10-15% of the overall cost. These days, it’s from 15-20-%. While that is relevant, I’m not sure it’s had much impact on the higher end homes.
I am building right now and at least in my market, this isn’t accurate. Our framing package is about 180% of what it would’ve been last year, but it’s nowhere close to $180k. It’s less than $100k. House is 4900sqft under beam and 3000 living.
My impression is that availability and pricing depends a lot on where your market is. Certain markets are more insulated from the pricing than others IMO. For example, there are 5 sawmills within 80 miles of me, all of which sell primarily to local suppliers. The mills have definitely jacked up prices, but they are keeping up with demand in the local market. The price is just a lot higher as compared to last year. It’s always something though and we were able to lock in a construction to permanent with relatively low closing costs for 2.9%.
Posted on 4/29/21 at 10:16 pm to diat150
quote:
What’s price per sqft? Haven’t started talking to builders but prob will in the next 6-8 months.
This was a very custom home. I’m told overall price to build is between 850,000 and 1mm excluding the lot.
It was bid on maximum possible cost basis
This post was edited on 4/29/21 at 10:18 pm
Posted on 4/30/21 at 7:36 am to Art Vandelay
quote:
What. Where are you getting these numbers?
Correction
The lumber package was 140,000 but that was dated early March so maybe a bit more now but not the 180,000 amount I posted. Sorry for confusion
Posted on 4/30/21 at 7:53 am to WPBTiger
quote:
This was a week or so back at a Home Depot. It does not look like a shortage.
Because them and Lowes have been buying up everything they can and storing them in warehouses in fears of shortages and further price hikes.
Contractors in the BR area are having some trouble getting larger quantities of 2x8's 10's and 12's from their normal suppliers.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 9:22 am to 4WHLN
Alternative building materials like bamboo and adobe have the potential to help pop this bubble with the quickness. No, you cannot build a good house with bamboo. But you can build solid other structures such as gazebos, storage units and outdoor kitchens. It's already ubiquitous and advanced in SE Asian countries like Singapore.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 9:25 am to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
I had an idea for some bookshelves I wanted to build in my house. Went and priced out the boards I would need.
Frick that, it’d cost more than just buying some nice ones already built.
Same here. I was going to build two end tables and a coffee table for the living room recently but when I went price all the materials, I realized it was actually cheaper to buy the unfinished pieces already built and stain them myself.
Insane!
Posted on 4/30/21 at 11:40 am to Allthatfades
I’m bidding out a major home renovation and multiple general contractors have all told me lumber prices aren’t coming down soon.
And no it wasn’t shitty salesmanship by one, it was all of them.
And no it wasn’t shitty salesmanship by one, it was all of them.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 12:06 pm to ibldprplgld
quote:
I’m bidding out a major home renovation and multiple general contractors have all told me lumber prices aren’t coming down soon.
And no it wasn’t shitty salesmanship by one, it was all of them.
we finished ours in February and our contractor came back by to fix a few things and i asked how the other jobs they have going are doing and they said specifically that we finished ours just in time as they're having to go to other projects and ask for increases of $20-40k because of materials.
Here's a thread on OT a few months back where a guy in the industry goes off on it.
LINK
quote:
I work in the lumber business. Lumber costs starting skyrocketing as soon as COVID broke out. Plain and simple the mills started to manipulate the market. Normal dimensional lumber is sky high. The business I’m in, we’ve completely quit buying S4S lumber. We’ve switched to rough lumber that is dirt cheap and we can plane it to the thickness we need for our production. There needs to be more regulation in the lumber market which I’m totally against. The fact of the matter is that lumber mills can set the price in the market to whatever they want. The buying price of lumber is ridiculous yet they’ve kept the price the same to cut lumber per ton in the field. It’s basically a scam and they’re getting away with murder. If you don’t pay more to cut it but can sell it for 5 times the price there is something seriously wrong with the industry. I’ve complained till I’m blue in the face. I’m sticking with green lumber and getting it dried at a price that dimensional lumber can’t compete with. They will eventually go bankrupt trying to sell dimensional lumber at the prices they’re at now. It will eventually drop when demand comes to a halt cause of the price. We saw it happen about a month ago. Prices dropped back to normal then all of a sudden it skyrocketed again. The mills are digging there own graves.
quote:
You are exactly right. There’s no shortage of lumber. The mills set the price. That’s the problem. It’s not based on what it costs to cut per ton. It’s whatever the mills want to set the market at. It’s a screwed up way of doing business but that’s how it’s done. I don’t run a mill. I buy lumber for our production. Until the mills realize people aren’t going to pay what they’re charging for 1000 board feet, they’re gonna keep the prices up. Green lumber dried in a kiln is the same lumber it’s just not graded like your S4S lumber. Works exactly the same. In my business we have the benefit of being able to plane it to what we need to produce. We just had to figure out what we needed it cut to in order to plane it to our production. The difference is that if you need it to meet exact spec for building purposes. Which is something we’ve had to deal with on our building projects. If I was needing small amounts of lumber for home projects I would buy it in the rough and buy a home planer and do the boards myself. You would still come out cheaper than buying in bulk. It’s not a hard process if you know anything about lumber. I don’t see prices dropping to normal levels for at least 6 months. I could be wrong but I watch the market every week. 2x4’s last week we’re 1000$ for 1000 board feet. That’s absolutely insane for southern pine. Pine shortage is not the problem. It’s the mills PERIOD
my understanding of that is the price went up because of supply during covid, but then the mills decided to keep them high and there's not anything anybody can do about it because everybody is building and getting theirs before the bubble busts. since mortgage rates are so low, people keep building.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 12:11 pm to BottomlandBrew
replacing a fence now. pressure treated 4x8 is like $75/sheet here, overheard a manager dropping that on someone while picking up fence pickets. $4 2x4s a year ago are going for almost $10. good thing insurance companies keep their exacimate updated, right.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 3:15 pm to 3nOut
Damn. Pisses me off.
Generally I’m not a fan of regulation on business, but I am if the business is or industry is acting like this.
Generally I’m not a fan of regulation on business, but I am if the business is or industry is acting like this.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 7:30 pm to Drunken Crawfish
It was up to $1502/kbf today. September futures are at $1090 so the market is betting on lower prices. I may sell a few futures contracts if it gets much higher but don’t want a margin call if things go haywire.
Posted on 4/30/21 at 7:32 pm to 3nOut
quote:
You are exactly right. There’s no shortage of lumber. The mills set the price. That’s the problem. It’s not based on what it costs to cut per ton. It’s whatever the mills want to set the market at.
What stops a mill from coming in and undercutting these other mills working in collusion to artificially keep the price high?
This post was edited on 5/1/21 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 5/1/21 at 2:50 pm to SlidellCajun
They're all still operating at 100% to keep up with demand. There's no incentive to lower prices unless you're operating at less than full capacity.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:50 pm to 3nOut
Where does a homeowner/diyer find rough lumber to buy and is it cheaper right now? I’ve bought rough cypress in the past, but it was pretty expensive — I imagine it’s gone way up lately too. Is that the case?
Posted on 5/3/21 at 10:00 pm to sleepytime
quote:
It was up to $1502/kbf today. September futures are at $1090 so the market is betting on lower prices. I may sell a few futures contracts if it gets much higher but don’t want a margin call if things go haywire
Where are you seeing this at? How do you see the futures. Trying to build later this year and am having second thoughts at these prices.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 10:16 pm to shoelessjoe
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:03 pm to stickly
Thanks
Posted on 5/4/21 at 9:01 am to 3nOut
quote:
my understanding of that is the price went up because of supply during covid, but then the mills decided to keep them high and there's not anything anybody can do about it because everybody is building and getting theirs before the bubble busts. since mortgage rates are so low, people keep building.
I ventured over to the poliboard for some unknown reason the other day and they had a thread about lumber prices. One guy shared this podcast - Odd Lots - Why The Price of Lumber Keeps Going Up and it had a loot of good info. Just a few quick points they mentioned:
-The 2008 crash was a hard time for the wood industry so those companies are very conservative by nature.
-The lumber market usually operates on 8 week lead times. So lumber yards will make orders to saw mills 8 weeks out and basically estimate what their sales will be. There are 3rd party wholesalers that can help fill the gap if a lumber yard under estimates the products they will need. Saw mills also traditionally have kept a supply of finished materials on hand incase there were issues with production runs or an unforeseen halt in operations.
-Last Spring, everyone thought we were looking down the barrel of another multi-year recession. So all of the lumber yards, 3rd party distributors and even saw mills dumped all their inventory for a fraction. Lumber dipped 50% from March to April.
-COVID had caused some mills to close or significantly reduce capacity reducing supply. At the same time demand grew while people were at home looking to update/renovate. At the same time, interest rates are at an all time low and the government started handing out cash so people who couldn't afford houses before now could, or people could upgrade homes causing this housing boom and skyrocketing demand.
-He also makes an interesting point that the price of lumber was probably going to rise in 2020/21 anyways. Lots of lumber is imported from Canada and they have an annual allowable cut (AAC) that the government puts on timber harvesters. A few years ago they had an issue with insects destroying timber harvests so the Canadian government increased the AAC to cut trees while they were still harvestable and to stop the spread of insects. Canada reduced their AAC in 2019 so supply was going to be decreasing anyways.
Its basically a perfect scenario for the mess we are seeing.
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