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Started By
Message
re: Nevada info from Ralston
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:31 pm to EZE Tiger Fan
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:31 pm to EZE Tiger Fan
Kamala would have to win Independents by 13 points. It's not happening. Trump will win Nevada
0
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:32 pm to RLDSC FAN
So let's assume that turns into a 4,000 vote Dem lead by closing time. How are you going to make up the huge GOP lead from early voting with that? They better hope those "others" are voting Dem.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:32 pm to RLDSC FAN
Except either he or the Nevada SOS is wrong. The data from the SOS site
Biden 2020 / Trump 2020
Statewide - 703,486 / 669,890 delta = 33,596
Clark County - 521,852 / 430,930 delta = 90,922
That is 952,782 Clark County Voters to the polls in 2020 and a Biden victory by 90,922 in Clark county.
Jon Ralston is full of shite.
Don't take my word for it use the SOS site.
Biden 2020 / Trump 2020
Statewide - 703,486 / 669,890 delta = 33,596
Clark County - 521,852 / 430,930 delta = 90,922
That is 952,782 Clark County Voters to the polls in 2020 and a Biden victory by 90,922 in Clark county.
Jon Ralston is full of shite.
Don't take my word for it use the SOS site.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:32 pm to igoringa
quote:
Early vote in Clark was R plus 47K so currently net 45K in a state they lost by 8+ last go.
47k was the statewide vote. Ds had a minuscule lead in Clark IIRC
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:33 pm to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
Jon Ralston is full of shite
He always is
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:33 pm to RLDSC FAN
There are more than 2.4mm in Clark county.
Theres a 25K vote difference and 5 hours left?
Id be super concerned if I were a democrat. The responsible folks are just going to lunch out there.
Theres a 25K vote difference and 5 hours left?
Id be super concerned if I were a democrat. The responsible folks are just going to lunch out there.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:35 pm to GoldenSombrero
quote:
Not to mention these numbers assume registered D’s vote Harris….im not convinced we don’t see a significant % swing of Dems to Trump.
Also we don’t know that massive number of independents are gonna break
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:35 pm to 225bred
Biden won Clark by 10 points in 2020 and squeaked a win in NV by 34,000 votes. Will it be better for them this year, with Harris? Dubious.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:35 pm to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
That is 952,782 Clark County Voters to the polls in 2020 and a Biden victory by 90,922 in Clark county.
Exactly, what is he talking about. Biden won by 9 points in 2020
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:36 pm to John Barron
OP loves doing this bullshite.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:36 pm to RLDSC FAN
This is what you call "Cherry Picking" Data.
What this doesn't show is that
1. Trump already had an EV lead. (Which he didnt in past years)
2. The Rural Counties offset this easily
3. The lead for Trump overall is GROWING, not SHRINKING
What this doesn't show is that
1. Trump already had an EV lead. (Which he didnt in past years)
2. The Rural Counties offset this easily
3. The lead for Trump overall is GROWING, not SHRINKING
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:37 pm to bhtigerfan
quote:yes
Don’t the Republicans have an early vote lead in NV?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:38 pm to RLDSC FAN
In 2020 Republicans were hopelessly behind, their election day gains were meaningless.
In 2024 Democrats are hopelessly behind.
They are kicking a FG in the 4th quarter down 28.
In 2024 Democrats are hopelessly behind.
They are kicking a FG in the 4th quarter down 28.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:44 pm to John Barron
I'll take the word of Based Baw Eric over father-of-a-mutant Ralston.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:51 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Today: 84,000 have already voted with 5 and a half hours left and Dems have a 2,000-ballot lead.
According to the Nevada Sec of State website, total early voting as of 9 am yesterday, 11/4/24, there were 116,939 Democrats who early voted in Clark County and 163,704 Republicans who early voted in Clark County.
Or, Republicans hold a 46,765 early vote lead over Dems.
Click on "Statewide Cumulative Early Voting Report (Updated 11/4/2024 at 9:00 a.m.) - HERE"
I'm not sure a 2,000 ballot lead for Dems today is something Dems should celebrate.
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