re: Southern Snow 1/10

That is snowfall THROUGH that date.

So, it would be the Sunday event.

ah ok

that makes more sense

the classic overnight ice storm that melts by 11am event

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don't EVER question Rummy when it comes to weather events or manscaping

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facts

GFS looks just like the euro now

It’s gonna snow baby

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Toledo Bend looks like it's going to be the bullseye for this

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thankfully one week before i go there.

Man, it doesn't get any more classic than this.

If the low tracks too far south, cold air will be in place, but moisture will not be present.

If the low tracks too fast then the cold air won't be here in time to make snow (not likely).

If the low tracks too slowly then it's likely to bring so much moisture that it prevents temps from falling low enough to produce snow.

Like always, we need the perfect blending of all three

I consider us snow lovers really lucky since 2008 after severe dry spells for BR in the 90s (lots of notable misses), and nothing from 2001 to 2008, including a huge bust in 2004. That one broke my 16 year old heart.

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LONG RANGE (Saturday through Wednesday)...
After a chilly and calm start to the upcoming weekend, focus begins to shift back west at the next approaching storm systemthat has many people wondering on the potential for any wintry precipitation. Diving deep into global guidance and trends thisafternoon, yep... this is not an easy one.

Let`s back it up a bit investigating the upper-level pattern. 00Z SUN per the GFS and ECMWF has a stretched closed mid-level low diving south across the four-corners region. Even beginning here, timing differencesbetween both global models are separated by around 12 hours.

The GFS is a bit faster with a southeastward progression, which prevents the shortwave trough from closing off, remaining generally an open wave as it pushes across the northern Gulf coast.The ECMWF, being a slower solution keeps the low closed off, which naturally owes to a slower forward movement held at the base of a very weak ridge axis across the Great Lakes. Lingering energy being absorbed and wrapped into the upper-low will help close the system off even more, eventually leading to a negative tilt more towards the west.

What does that mean?

A low closer to SE LA and more rainfall, yes but may prevent much colder air from reaching our area limiting any frozen precipitation potential (better chances well north from central LA to central MS). Just too much uncertainty exists here, split between either a fast moving stretched shortwave, or a closed/slower upper-low which both paints different scenarios. Many of which is supported by what happens upstream across the northern US.

Not going to dive into model soundings with such low confidence (potential low-level wetbulbing and other processes that can bust a forecast), but will keep the mention of rain/snow along or north of I-10/12 early Monday morning and will continue to message low confidence.Experience and common meteorological reasoning leans more towards the ECMWF in this type of synoptic set up, with a slower/deeper low solution which makes much more sense. That would keep the surface low too close to our area for any significant impacts with a warmer, wetter solution overall.

With this forecast package not changing much at all from previous, will continue to monitor trends very closely and will implement any significant changes to the forecast when confidence increases.

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NWS Baton Rouge/New Orleans

When does the Houma TV station start snow coverage?

That hack Jay Grimes said last night we had no shot