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What's the end game for hurricane tracking/projections?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:43 am
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:43 am
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on from say a week out without landfall fluctuating more than 20 miles or so and nailing the intensity the whole time? Will there ever be that much understanding of the things that affect a hurricane? Will we ever have enough data points/computing power etc to do that or are we just trying to get incrementally better at this?
27
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:44 am to TomSpanks
No. You won’t.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:44 am to TomSpanks
The dawn of quantum computing will make them infinitely more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:45 am to TomSpanks
never, the local weather station producers and weatherman will never allow it, gotta get those clicks and live watches
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:47 am to TomSpanks
no
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:49 am to TomSpanks
Hard to believe that 25 years ago we were marking an X on a newsprint hurricane tracking chart every four hours.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:49 am to TomSpanks
with so many variables, no.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:50 am to TomSpanks
Yes, we know how hurricanes are formed and what affects them. Now it is just a matter of getting adequate data and having the computers with the power to model it.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:53 am to TomSpanks
Despite all the technology, weather prediction today, including hurricane forecasting, is no better than it was in the 1970s. Sometimes they’re spot on, other times they are as off as can be. Same then, same now.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:00 am to TomSpanks
I don't think projections will ever be able to consistently nail a landfall within 20 miles a week out. Aside from getting lucky, that's damn near impossible to do for every storm
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:01 am to TomSpanks
No. It's simply not possible, nor will it ever be.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:03 am to TomSpanks
quote:
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on from say a week out
Projections by definition are an estimation, so no.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:06 am to TomSpanks
quote:
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on
Nope. Read up on chaos theory/butterfly effect to understand the whys and wherefores.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:07 am to TomSpanks
No.
Which is why climate models 5, 10,20, 100 years out are bullshite.
Which is why climate models 5, 10,20, 100 years out are bullshite.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:10 am to TomSpanks
Which begs the question, how can “scientists” expect us to believe temp changes and sea level predictions 25-50yrs out if they can’t predict it 5 days from now?
Edit:udtiger beat me to it.
Edit:udtiger beat me to it.
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:42 am to TomSpanks
vote for biden. he said he will end hurricanes
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:20 am to TomSpanks
A lot of negative Nancys in this thread.
Before sputnik, what do you think the TD posters thought about the possibility of launching something into space that could wirelessly send images back that can be looped to show a short clip of what is going on in another part of the planet. Not to mention it being distributed across personal wireless devices instantaneously and multiple times a day.
I'd say we are well on our way to figuring out a way to be more accurate.
Before sputnik, what do you think the TD posters thought about the possibility of launching something into space that could wirelessly send images back that can be looped to show a short clip of what is going on in another part of the planet. Not to mention it being distributed across personal wireless devices instantaneously and multiple times a day.
I'd say we are well on our way to figuring out a way to be more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:38 am to TomSpanks
A storm that large is gonna go where it pleases
It’s like a dragon or a T-Rex.
You can try and control it or guess what it’s gonna do but in the end, it’s gonna go frick shite up wherever it wants because that’s just what it’s made to do
It’s like a dragon or a T-Rex.
You can try and control it or guess what it’s gonna do but in the end, it’s gonna go frick shite up wherever it wants because that’s just what it’s made to do
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:03 am to TomSpanks
People love to bitch and moan.
It’s a modern fricking marvel that we know where storms from Africa are coming weeks in advance and that can give us some sort of prediction on the 2nd most un-predictable thing that man has ever known- Mother Nature.
Imagine living on the gulf 100 years ago- it’s September and all of a sudden one day there’s about 6 million love bugs around your house and you have the realization that there’s a monster coming from the ocean to rip the living shite out of everything you love and own.
Also the most un-predictable thing man has ever know are women.
It’s a modern fricking marvel that we know where storms from Africa are coming weeks in advance and that can give us some sort of prediction on the 2nd most un-predictable thing that man has ever known- Mother Nature.
Imagine living on the gulf 100 years ago- it’s September and all of a sudden one day there’s about 6 million love bugs around your house and you have the realization that there’s a monster coming from the ocean to rip the living shite out of everything you love and own.
Also the most un-predictable thing man has ever know are women.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:14 am to TomSpanks
We will likely get better at short term forecasting. Long-term? I think there will always be too many variables.
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