- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:16 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:16 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I don't know about now, but there is clear evidence that a voluntary "shutdown" was well in place before the first government lockdown order came back in March.
Do you think the "voluntary shutdown" had anything to do with the hysteria purposefully created by the Left, the CDC and media?
Yeah, so the dimmest among us stopped going to restaurants and the mall before their Governor told them to - because the CDC and CNN told them there was a 1 in 10 chance they'd die if they didn't stay home.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:11 pm to David_DJS
quote:I mean, it was related to what they saw going on around the world.
Do you think the "voluntary shutdown" had anything to do with the hysteria purposefully created by the Left, the CDC and media?
quote:It wasn't just the dimmest - it was almost everyone. Look at the opentable data. Restaurants went to zero almost overnight.
Yeah, so the dimmest among us stopped going to restaurants and the mall before their Governor told them to - because the CDC and CNN told them there was a 1 in 10 chance they'd die if they didn't stay home.
The mortality estimates, though, were always inexcusable. I'm still pissed at Trump for letting those people railroad him.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:14 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
And we can see from Sweden that the economic benefits of not shutting down is limited.
the problem is, i'm pretty sure, the data you're comparing is equating government subsidies as legitimate salaries/economic behaviors
have these studies removed the government payments from the equation? i got 100 SFP dollars that says this drastically changes GDP and economic comparisons
quote:
To solve the economic problem, you have to solve the virus problem. You and I may just fundamentally disagree on that point.
you believe the "virus problem" can be solved
there may be a miracle vaccine down the road, but until then, there isn't much we can do other than kill our economies to stop the spread
quote:
But I maintain, we were nothing near what we were before
almost nowhere has the same governmental regulations now as in February, either
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:21 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I mean, it was related to what they saw going on around the world.
What did they see? They saw what was fed to them by the media, which has always managed Coronavirus as a political weapon.
At the end of the day the virus is whatever the virus is, and assuming it was going to kill everybody was political and/or stupid.
quote:
It wasn't just the dimmest - it was almost everyone. Look at the opentable data. Restaurants went to zero almost overnight.
There were a LOT of people that did not avoid normal living until there was no place (restaurants, gyms, theaters, shopping) left for them to patronize. If you don't like the rest being labeled "dim" then we'll just call these folks "smart."
quote:
The mortality estimates, though, were always inexcusable. I'm still pissed at Trump for letting those people railroad him.
What about Coronavirus is even remotely remarkable besides the inexcusable mortality estimates?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:23 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
The daily positivity rate, which is the number of positive cases compared to those tested on a given day, hit a new record Thursday at 18.39% and on Saturday it was 11.25%, according to the DOH.
If you needed any proof that the data was shite, this is it.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:36 pm to David_DJS
quote:Seriously?
What about Coronavirus is even remotely remarkable besides the inexcusable mortality estimates?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 2:41 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Seriously?
Yes. Tell me.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:11 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the problem is, i'm pretty sure, the data you're comparing is equating government subsidies as legitimate salaries/economic behaviors
have these studies removed the government payments from the equation? i got 100 SFP dollars that says this drastically changes GDP and economic comparisons
Not sure. Fair point though. Though countries have fat doles.
quote:
you believe the "virus problem" can be solved
there may be a miracle vaccine down the road, but until then, there isn't much we can do other than kill our economies to stop the spread
Solved might be strong, but effectively managed such that society can return to normalcy? I mean, the're playing baseball in Taiwan in front of crowd. I miss baseball.
quote:
almost nowhere has the same governmental regulations now as in February, either
I suppose this the part where you can help me better understand the ongoing restrictions that exist on commerce. Perhaps I'll ask it this way. What is the government keeping closed that you think it should be allowed to be opened that would actually be opened if such an allowance did occur? I ask that, not even as a challenge. Genuinely curious.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i'll tell you one thing, the "WE NEED TESTING" to fix things is a huge fricking lie. we get all the negative PR for overly testing (# of raw cases) and none of the real statistical benefits (basically what would be one of the lowest case mortality rates in the EU)
Testing is a critical means to a particular end, but not an end in of itself. You gotta do all that other stuff. (contact tracing & isolation, stiffer mitigation of hotspots) too. Whenever we get around to having a second wave, we'll be happy we have this robust testing capacity.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:24 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
Testing is a critical means to a particular end, but not an end in of itself. You gotta do all that other stuff. (contact tracing & isolation, stiffer mitigation of hotspots) too. Whenever we get around to having a second wave, we'll be happy we have this robust testing capacity.
quote:
"Nobody knew what a contact tracing program was," @NYGovCuomo says, of program in NY.
LINK
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:41 pm to Magician2
quote:
quote:
"Nobody knew what a contact tracing program was," @NYGovCuomo says, of program in NY.
LINK
I'm quite sure the CDC knows what contact tracing is. It's literally epidemiology 101 going back to Typhoid Mary. Half the plot of Contagion and And the Band Played On are about the mechanics of contact tracing. Incidentally, one of the great failures of this whole ordeal is that the CDC hasn't led from the the front on testing / tracing / isolation. It's sort of why they're there and in their absence you have no nothing state officials running the show.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:43 pm to Magician2
We didn’t need Cuomo to say that for us to know it.
They didn’t even contact everyone on the plane of “patient zero.” If they screwed up their first known case, I would imagine it was a total cluster for weeks.
They didn’t even contact everyone on the plane of “patient zero.” If they screwed up their first known case, I would imagine it was a total cluster for weeks.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:55 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Germany with 4 times the population has about 200
Remind me the amount of tests Germany is doing each day again?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 3:58 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
They are just managing this whole thing much better than we are largely by executing our plan.
So what is it they are doing again to be managing it so much better? Your previous posts like to give detail so please do inform us all what they got going on?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:01 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
My point hasn't shifted. You're saying that a particular news outlet is giving the overall case figure without the necessary context that the case figure came from a record testing day and that the case positive figure is 11.25% and it is misleading to do so. Indeed it is. But it is equally as misleading for you to not offer the additional context that 11.25% is a really bad case positivity rate. Californa is around 8% and that's also bad. New York and New Jersy are less than 1%. The rest of the first world is pretty low as well. 11% ain't it.
Is it not possible that a high positivity rate could be caused by the self selection of those receiving the tests?
I'm not sure how a high positivity rate is indicative of anything other than the screening process for receiving the test being effective.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:02 pm to honeybadger07
quote:
So what is it they are doing again to be managing it so much better? Your previous posts like to give detail so please do inform us all what they got going on?
Asked and answered in this very thread. If you care to find it, it's there.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:07 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
Yes. Yesterday the case positivity rate for California was about 8 times that of New York. California is really big, I suspect a few places with California are driving the an outsized number of cases. I'm disinclined to believe that the disease has run its course in NY because the data suggests only 25% of of the population has had the disease which is not enough to confer herd immunity. I am open to the possibility that there other factors driving differentiating in these outcomes.
What I feel comfortable saying is that S. Korea and California have about the same population. California will have more people die of COVID by Wednesday as S. Korea has had since this whole thing began. Can you explain why that is?
That's backwards and fails to account for whether New York having already gone through its first wave is accountable for New York's current condition. Using this logic, Sweden's lockdown is more effective than California's even though Sweden is not under lockdown.
ETA: My reference to Farr's Law is not to herd immunity. We can debate the proper threshold for population-level immunity, but under Farr's Law, why does a new virus follow a bell curve pattern? Because the number of susceptible persons lowers as the virus makes its way through a population. Those persons have gone from susceptible to infected to recovered (or dead). Accordingly, the higher prevalence in a population, the harder the virus must work to keep its R0 up. New York's prevalence is significantly higher than California's, so if you assume an equivalent lockdown effect, then it would make sense for California to still have a higher infection rate, correct?
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:14 pm to honeybadger07
quote:
Remind me the amount of tests Germany is doing each day again?
We do about 40% more per capita. Our positive rate is about 1 in 12 and theirs is about 1 in 200. They could be out-testing us by miles and not come close in finding cases.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:18 pm to David_DJS
quote:A novel virus, with no vaccine available that kills at a rate 10-50 times the seasonal flu - and bears with it hard-to-explain markers of non-lethal impact (organ damage, etc.).
Yes. Tell me.
Did we all just imagine that the hospitals in NYC got full just from virus patients?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:29 pm to Athanatos
quote:
That's backwards and fails to account for whether New York having already gone through its first wave is accountable for New York's current condition
I've mentioned a few times. No place has yet to achieve herd immunity, so no place is "through" the first wave. NY like many places has successfully mitigated cases, but it isn't necessarily done with COVID.
quote:
Using this logic, Sweden's lockdown is more effective than California's even though Sweden is not under lockdown.
I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your arithemtic, there, Lou. Sweden has had 5,500 deaths in a population of 10M whereas California has had ~7,000 deaths on 4 times as large a population. The per capita mortality rate in Sweden (502 per M) is triple that of California (177 per M) Anyhow, the case positivity rate is the standard I set to show relative control of the virus. Sweden is higher than California in that metric too.
LINK
Sweden is one of the few rich countries clearly doing worse than we are.
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News