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Started By
Message
re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:43 am to longwayfromLA
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:43 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
The embedded assumption here is that if we make the "grown-up decision" to trade some lives for a better economy we'll necessarily get a better economy. There is not a lot of reason to believe that is true. See, Sweden, which is doing what you precisely what suggest and is having worse health outcomes than its neighbors with no attendant economic benefit, comparatively speaking.
if you count government spending as regular salaries, then yes, there has been no economic benefit
European countries are borrowing a shite ton of money to effectively subsidize their population's salaries. since government spending is calculated as GDP, this doesn't seem like such a fricking mess as it will be long term
if this whole "people won't trust the economy with a pandemic" theory were true, then explain the economic/employment gains of the US when we opened things up. it's clear, at least in the US, that people will engage in economic behaviors and get the economy rolling with a pandemic around them, until the government shuts them down.
quote:
Other countries have shown that this does not have to be the case.
again, this is ignoring that they're basically being paid to stay home. this is not sustainable and Europe will face the same problems once the benefits run out. long term there is nothing we can do without an effective vaccine
*ETA: we have already seen this in SK as they experienced a huge spike when they re-opened and they have said they can't close down again for economic reasons. the EU will be no different
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 8:44 am
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Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:44 am to SDVTiger
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:47 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
South Korea has experienced COVID 289 deaths since their first case back in February. California has experienced 306 COVID deaths since Thursday. If we had managed things as well as they have, there would be no concern about conventions. But alas...
we're not effectively an island the size of Missouri with only 51M people and a singular governmental system
oh, and: South Korea confirms second wave
SK sees largest spike in 3 weeks
quote:
South Korea has been struggling to contain a spike in virus transmissions since early May, when it eased social distancing rules. Most of the new cases have been reported in the densely populated Seoul metropolitan area, where about half of the country’s 51 million people live.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:48 am to the808bass
quote:
Viruses go up and then they go down.
Maybe. No reason to believe this wont' go up again.
quote:
I don’t expect any of it will be as serious on the scale New York’s was.
Neither do I. What happen in NY was the virus running completely wild in a dense area with no mitigation efforts plus importing it nursing homes.
quote:
The virus will move through the population and will then subside.
This is the part I continue to challenge. Other places in the world have managed to skip this part. Why can't we?
quote:
The bigger question is will this be around two years from now. I tend to doubt it.
I think it's around forever. But we'll have treatments, vaccines , etc. so it won't be as big a deal. But who knows...
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:48 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
California has experienced 306 COVID deaths since Thursday.
Oh noz. Please tell me what underlying issues these patients had
7k deaths in this state with 39mil ppl
.000017% death rate. Yeah let's shut it down we are doing so horrible
Idiots. No one is even listening to Newsom or ppl like yourself
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:49 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
If we had managed things as well as they have, there would be no concern about conventions.
You don’t manage your way out of a virus. This is some odd thinking.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:53 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
This is the part I continue to challenge. Other places in the world have managed to skip this part. Why can't we?
Part of it could be genetic. Part of it could be a difference in baseline population health. We have a huge concentration of people with diabetes and heart disease. Those are people who are very susceptible to negative health outcomes.
And we are testing more people.
The original Imperial College paper said that a complete shutdown of the country would result in 50% fewer deaths. Do you disagree with that? If so, why?
So if there is a greater than 50% difference in our death rate and another country’s death rate, it would follow (if we believe the epidemiologists) that the difference isn’t in the non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:54 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Idiots. No one is even listening to Newsom or ppl like yourself
And that's why we've been much less successful than the South Koreans in managing the disease and in turn why our economy cannot fully re-open. They've been playing baseball for weeks now in S. Korea. In front of fans. Just saying it seems like we might have something to learn from them since they're doing better than we are.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:58 am to the808bass
quote:
Part of it could be genetic. Part of it could be a difference in baseline population health. We have a huge concentration of people with diabetes and heart disease. Those are people who are very susceptible to negative health outcomes.
I get that to a degree. It's definitely multi-factorial. But the differences are pretty stark as compared to other countries. it's gotta be more than just penetration of hypertension.
quote:
The original Imperial College paper said that a complete shutdown of the country would result in 50% fewer deaths. Do you disagree with that? If so, why?
I don't think you need to do a complete shutdown of the country. We're too big and its probably too late. Like you once said, this isn't one outbreak its a bunch of localized ones.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:58 am to the808bass
quote:
You don’t manage your way out of a virus. This is some odd thinking.
S. Korea did. Why can't we?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:59 am to longwayfromLA
Or we are just bullshiting the numbers cause it's an election year
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:00 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
S. Korea did. Why can't we?
No. They didn’t. Fun argument.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:00 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Florida right now is all about making it as bad as possible so they can’t host the RNC. No doubt about it
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:02 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
I don't think you need to do a complete shutdown of the country. We're too big and its probably too late. Like you once said, this isn't one outbreak its a bunch of localized ones.
I can’t tell if you’re side-stepping this point or you don’t get it.
Per the epidemiologists, NPIs, at their most severe and draconian, can only bend the curve 50%. If the curve is bent more than that for a country relative to other countries, the difference would not be in the NPIs.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 9:04 am
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:04 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
I get that to a degree. It's definitely multi-factorial. But the differences are pretty stark as compared to other countries. it's gotta be more than just penetration of hypertension.
other countries, especially smaller ones or ones with stronger federal governments, were able to shut down
i'm not saying our initial response was better. what i'm saying is that long term it won't matter b/c that initial success that you keep citing was EXTREMELY costly and it was not economically equal (as you presumed earlier)
let's just say, for the sake of argument, that a vaccine is 18 months away from worldwide distribution. Europe, SK, etc. will not be able to afford their current course over 18 months. so even with a good start where they clearly slowed the spread, it's likely, ultimately, pointless in the long term.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:05 am to the808bass
Trump has made his bed, but he can’t sleep in it, because some very fine people are using them for something else.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:06 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
we're not effectively an island the size of Missouri with only 51M people and a singular governmental system
Missouri is the size of Missouri, right? They've had 3 times as many deaths as S. Korea with 1/9th of the population. We haven't managed things as well S. Korea. I'm not sure how this is even arguable at this point.
quote:
oh, and: South Korea confirms second wave
SK sees largest spike in 3 weeks
Their largest spike in months and second wave was 67 cases in one day across the whole country. If that doesn't show the difference in situation, I don't know what does. Anyhow, the idea isn't that they (or we) will never have outbreaks, it's that they manage them when they do occur according to a well defined plan. Right now we don't such a plan. Thus they can have confidence that they'll have cases back down to a nominal level again. Where might we derive such confidence?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:07 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
New York and New Jersy are less than 1%
These 2 make up 35% of the nations deaths.
The rest of the country has a long way to go to catch up with that shite show.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:10 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
They've had 3 times as many deaths as S. Korea with 1/9th of the population. We haven't managed things as well S. Korea. I'm not sure how this is even arguable at this point.
we haven't been as authoritarian and they certainly got out to an early lead. the last i saw, their government said they can't afford another shut down so we will see what happens moving forward.
we won't be able to judge this for generations anyway, due to the utterly absurd amounts being spent by governments to artificially prop up their populations.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:11 am to the808bass
quote:
No. They didn’t. Fun argument.
Do you really believe we have managed this as well as they have? Like, one a scale of 1-10, what would you give them, what would you give us?
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