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re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:13 am to longwayfromLA
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:13 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Do you really believe we have managed this as well as they have?
this depends on the parameters you use
i'm not going to argue that we stopped the spread earlier and more effectively than they did
1
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:13 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
S. Korea did. Why can't we?
they're not "out" dude
it's only been a few months
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:14 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
let's just say, for the sake of argument, that a vaccine is 18 months away from worldwide distribution. Europe, SK, etc. will not be able to afford their current course over 18 months. so even with a good start where they clearly slowed the spread, it's likely, ultimately, pointless in the long term.
Are they really shut down though? It is not clear to me that we are more open than many of those countries. Certainly not Japan. Maybe I should make this clear. I'm not advocating broad shutdowns.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:17 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Are they really shut down though? It is not clear to me that we are more open than many of those countries.
we are
just look at our spread for data points
EU countries are literally paying salaries to people to keep them from going to work. those programs end in a month or so
hell, our unemployment benefits end in a couple weeks. there is going to be a shite show of epic proportions when that happens
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:19 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Europe involves a lot of places that have varying degrees of openness. Put it this way, we can;t fly there now. Clearly, most of those countries are handling the disease better than we are.
Italy, France, Spain, UK, Sweden, Belgium...All currently have more deaths per million than the US. I guess it depends on the metric you use to define "handling the disease better".
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:22 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
this depends on the parameters you use
i'm not going to argue that we stopped the spread earlier and more effectively than they did
I think mileage may vary on the most important metrics. I think
covid deaths and hospitalizations and overall excess deaths per capita and case positivity rate, and trend on all of those are probably the right public health metrics. There are probably a number of categorical items related to the economy as well. I'd also throw in some process metrics around contact tracing, people in clinical trials, and stuff like that. We should also be measuring how quickly we reverse case volume growth in hotspots.
Stepping back, I think its important to consider where you are compared to realistic targets for all chosen measures. Right now its unclear if we have those targets. I'd bet the S. Koreans do though.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:25 am to the808bass
quote:
Gtfo. Y’all had almost 25% of the deaths in your state. Don’t come back to tell us what we’re doing wrong.
Absolutely tone deaf.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:25 am to DMAN1968
if you use the case fatality ratio, we are even better
then we're behind: Belgium, UK, Italy, France, Hungary, Nehterlands, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, China, Denmark, Germany, Japan,
Case mortality data from Johns Hopkins
then we're behind: Belgium, UK, Italy, France, Hungary, Nehterlands, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, China, Denmark, Germany, Japan,
Case mortality data from Johns Hopkins
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:28 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
we are
just look at our spread for data points
EU countries are literally paying salaries to people to keep them from going to work. those programs end in a month or so
hell, our unemployment benefits end in a couple weeks. there is going to be a shite show of epic proportions when that happens
I suppose we have a definition conflict. I think of shutdown to mean, the government literally doesn't allow the business to operate or to operate in a way that is sustainable financially. I tend to think that is different in kind from basic financial devastation from reduced demand. A lot of that unemployment both here and in Europe is people who lost jobs because of the demand issue, not because the government disallowed the type of work they do. I agree with you that we and they both have a major fiscal problem upcoming. It's not clear to me that governments can make it right simply by lifting prohibitions, since like I said, in many cases there is no prohibition.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:28 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
I think its important to consider where you are compared to realistic targets for all chosen measures. Right now its unclear if we have those targets. I'd bet the S. Koreans do though.
we have targets
being able to corrall a country that's governed by 50 states with a population of 330M that's 3000 miles wide and 1500 miles tall, isn't easy
i'll tell you one thing, the "WE NEED TESTING" to fix things is a huge fricking lie. we get all the negative PR for overly testing (# of raw cases) and none of the real statistical benefits (basically what would be one of the lowest case mortality rates in the EU)
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:33 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Other places in the world have managed to skip this part.
Skipped it or postponed it?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:33 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
the government literally doesn't allow the business to operate or to operate in a way that is sustainable financially
having to support the salaries of people b/c their jobs can't generate enough revenue to pay the salaries means the businesses can't operate sustainably
quote:
A lot of that unemployment both here and in Europe is people who lost jobs because of the demand issue, not because the government disallowed the type of work they do.
tomato tomato
unless you're trying to argue the absurd notion that the "demadn issue" is b/c the public is too scared to engage in commerce
demand is lowered b/c salaries are lowered and people can't shop/operate normally
quote:
I agree with you that we and they both have a major fiscal problem upcoming. It's not clear to me that governments can make it right simply by lifting prohibitions, since like I said, in many cases there is no prohibition.
you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth on this issue
we literally saw in the US when restrictions were lifted, commerce started again. then, in conjunction with this activity, we have seen major spread in previously unaffected areas
Europe is going to have the same issues if/when they stop their shut down
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 9:34 am
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:34 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Skipped it or postponed it?
exactly
since a vaccine is unlikely, what is the EU's 5 year plan? will this initial 3-month head start even matter in 2025?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:40 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
A lot of that unemployment both here and in Europe is people who lost jobs because of the demand issue, not because the government disallowed the type of work they do.
Errrmmmm....What?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:40 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Errrmmmm....What?
100 SFP bucks he says the virus caused a lack of confidence in the market and a corresponding drop in demand
Posted on 7/13/20 at 9:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
The statistic shows the distribution of the workforce across economic sectors in the United States from 2009 to 2019. In 2019, 1.41 percent of the workforce in the US was employed in agriculture, 19.18 percent in industry and 79.41 percent in services
When the government closes everything do you think it is lack of demand that causes the hardship of 79.41% of the workers.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:I don't know about now, but there is clear evidence that a voluntary "shutdown" was well in place before the first government lockdown order came back in March.
unless you're trying to argue the absurd notion that the "demadn issue" is b/c the public is too scared to engage in commerce
Posted on 7/13/20 at 10:34 am to Big Scrub TX
oh there are no doubt a bunch of things contributing to economic decline, one being confidence, but we have clear evidence it's a small factor. it's clear that the reason we're experiencing this spread is due to re-opening and economic activity bringing people together
take LA. if our population was truly so scared of this pandemic that they would shift their economic behavior in such large numbers to tank our economy, then how did we get our second spread so quickly after things opened up?
take LA. if our population was truly so scared of this pandemic that they would shift their economic behavior in such large numbers to tank our economy, then how did we get our second spread so quickly after things opened up?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:35 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
unless you're trying to argue the absurd notion that the "demadn issue" is b/c the public is too scared to engage in commerce
demand is lowered b/c salaries are lowered and people can't shop/operate normall
Not sure how you disentangle all of that. I'll said another way. We shed as an economy tens of millions of jobs. Not all of those were because the government shut anything down. And we can see from Sweden that the economic benefits of not shutting down is limited. No matter what, it's not like the government can just say, " no more mandatory restrictions" and then things go back to the way they were. In particular if the virus is still around. To solve the economic problem, you have to solve the virus problem. You and I may just fundamentally disagree on that point.
quote:
we literally saw in the US when restrictions were lifted, commerce started again. then, in conjunction with this activity, we have seen major spread in previously unaffected areas
Some commerce began again. But I maintain, we were nothing near what we were before. Like I said, the economic damage predates the government mandated closures.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:07 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
A lot of that unemployment both here and in Europe is people who lost jobs because of the demand issue, not because the government disallowed the type of work they do.
Not to be unkind, but this made me laugh - reminded me of AOC's comment about unemployment being so low because everybody had two jobs.
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