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re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse

Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:36 pm to
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:36 pm to
When are we going to see the death rate rise?

Protests happened late may/early June.

Positive cases are spiking because of the amount of tests taking place.

Should we deaths start to spike this week/month?
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

I still think (and nate silver agrees with me) that you have to take into account how geographically large america is. You were never going to see our country get hit at the same time and recover at the same time


I agree in part. The country is too large to all get hit at once, but it is not a given that outbreaks will eventually happen everywhere. Said another way, there are things we could have done to control COVID after the NY/NJ debacle of March and April that would have limited the outbreaks that are occurring now in AZ, TX, FL, etc. Further, it is still not clear what the plans are to control the disease there or anywhere else.
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
29338 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:44 pm to
Maybe those NY media folks should look closer to home

3 States Account for 42% of Covid Deaths
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:47 pm to
quote:


When are we going to see the death rate rise?


About 5 days ago.

quote:

Positive cases are spiking because of the amount of tests taking place.


This is only partially true. Case positivity rates have gone up as well.

quote:

Should we deaths start to spike this week/month?


Gosh, I hope not.
Posted by Bulldogblitz
In my house
Member since Dec 2018
26868 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

New York and New Jersy are less than 1%. 
Cuomo.

Ny and nj have sent far too many people to florida. The hotel we were in at daytona had a 90% occupation from those two states.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
18241 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

Said another way, there are things we could have done to control COVID after the NY/NJ debacle of March and April that would have limited the outbreaks that are occurring now in AZ, TX, FL, etc.


What things?
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
111802 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 4:22 pm to
Yes. New Jersey has had its outbreak already. They’re not “managing it better.” It’s a virus.
Posted by artisticsavant
Member since Mar 2017
5011 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 4:33 pm to
I remember when people were furious we didn't have enough test kits. So now we have so many people getting tested, a small percentage testing positive and they're still furious. Then... there's the false positive tests and they're furious anyway. Forget being never-Trumpers, these people are never-happy either.

The thing I always looked at was the number of people being tested/testing positive and the death rate lowering. This isn't the blame of an individual - nobody can babysit the infected and force them to stay inside, yet some people will still never be happy.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

What things?


I suppose there are a number of ways to skin this cat and pretty much every rich country in the world other than us has figured it out. So the most important thing is to have an actual strategy with an actual goal in mind which we still at this late date do not have.
Beyond that, specifics should include:
- a heavy push toward voluntary universal masking. PSAs and encouragement to that end from all arm and orifices of power in society.
- indeed we are a rich country, everyone in the US should have access to n95 mask by now
- extensive contact tracing
- re-opening based on a set of standards as opposed to political calculations
- Generally, making more of an effort to learn more from the parts of the world that were having an easier time than we are.
- It would probably have been helpful if the administration took ownership of the problem and offered more guidance and directives from the federal since the problem is national and they have better access to resources and expertise.


Do you believe we have handled this optimally as compared to the rest of the world given our resources?
This post was edited on 7/12/20 at 8:19 pm
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 4:46 pm to
quote:


I suppose there are a number of ways to skin this cat and pretty much every rich country in the world other than us has figured it out. So the most important thing is to have an actual strategy with an actual goal in mind which we still at this later date do not have.


The rest of the world meaning Europe and Asia?

Asian countries for the most part aren't reporting anything last I checked sans japan and South Korea.

Europe hasn't even opened up there economies yet, correct?

England just opened their pubs for the first time last week and the entire media made a shite show of it.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
18241 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

- re-opening based on a set of standards as opposed to political calculations


1. Where is the economy, education and health of our children, as well as health of society in a broad sense in your standards/calculations here?

How many unemployed do we need before we make the grown-up decision that, well, bad things sometimes happen and it's silly to think it's government's role (let alone within its capabilities) to make sure old/sick people don't die of a cold virus?

And about these standards, I agree we should take the politics out of them - so let's have the discussion about health outcomes of lockdowns, closed schools, sheltering in place, etc. and compare that to the effectiveness/efficiency of lockdowns.

2. Are we going to do this with every virus/flu that is stronger than normal? Because if we're talking standards, then these standards should be "standard" in non-presidential election years.

quote:

a heavy push toward voluntary universal masking. PSAs and encouragement to that end from all arm and orifices of power in society.


You could start with showing real evidence that masks work. Everyone advocating for them pretends it's out there "in plain sight" but it isn't. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, but I can say that I've asked at least 5 posters on this site for links to the science and they've not been able to come up with anything that's actually science.

And on masks, if they really were effective - why would we need any more mitigating measures (behind normal good hygiene?)

quote:

Do you believe we have handled this optimally as compared to the rest of the world given our resources?


I think we would have been far better off spending all our COVID dollars on isolating old folks and those with serious/compromising medical issues. That's it. No lockdowns. The virus is going to make its way through the population anyway, so if we focused on isolating/treating those at high risk - let it burn.
Posted by ROPO
Member since Jul 2016
3107 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

70,000 targeted test a day


Or half the testing that Florida is doing, despite having 4x the population.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

The rest of the world meaning Europe and Asia?


I mean the rich countries. There are a couple in Oceania that are doing perfectly fine.

quote:

Asian countries for the most part aren't reporting anything last I checked sans japan and South Korea.


Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong are making out pretty well. Anyhow, Japan and S. Korea count, right? How have they managed this whole ordeal? Might there be something or somethings they are doing that we might learn from? I'm just saying they're playing baseball in front of crowds in Taiwan but not here.

quote:

Europe hasn't even opened up there economies yet, correct?

Europe involves a lot of places that have varying degrees of openness. Put it this way, we can;t fly there now. Clearly, most of those countries are handling the disease better than we are.

quote:

England just opened their pubs for the first time last week and the entire media made a shite show of it.



Well because it's a bad idea. We don't have a monopoly on those...
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 8:18 pm to
quote:

How many unemployed do we need before we make the grown-up decision that, well, bad things sometimes happen and it's silly to think it's government's role (let alone within its capabilities) to make sure old/sick people don't die of a cold virus?


The embedded assumption here is that if we make the "grown-up decision" to trade some lives for a better economy we'll necessarily get a better economy. There is not a lot of reason to believe that is true. See, Sweden, which is doing what you precisely what suggest and is having worse health outcomes than its neighbors with no attendant economic benefit, comparatively speaking. There's pretty good reason to believe that the public health problem is the issue and controlling that gives us a better economy at the same time. See Japan, which didn't shut down as much as we did but leveraged the entire capabilities of their institutions to crush the virus there. If it's within their capabilities, it's certainly within ours. We haven't really tried.

quote:

You could start with showing real evidence that masks work. Everyone advocating for them pretends it's out there "in plain sight" but it isn't. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, but I can say that I've asked at least 5 posters on this site for links to the science and they've not been able to come up with anything that's actually science.

LINK

Here is one of the many, many studies that are just a google away. Somehow I don't think it's going to convince you. And that's before you consider that world doesn't end at the Pacific. If you keep going, you'll find a mess of countries who are heavy mask users and are doing well. The resistance to mask is fascinating since the costs are so low and benefits so great.
quote:

And on masks, if they really were effective - why would we need any more mitigating measures (behind normal good hygiene?)


If seat belts work, why do we need airbags and crumple zones and anti-lock brakes, etc.?

quote:

The virus is going to make its way through the population anyway, so if we focused on isolating/treating those at high risk - let it burn.


Other countries have shown that this does not have to be the case. Let's be like them.
Posted by Tigrdynasty
19th hole
Member since Jun 2018
2746 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 8:24 pm to
quote:

journalists use the scary numbers the mass testing produces to push a narrative


Of course. That's what they do. It's all they do. It shouldn't surprise anyone anymore. They have no interest in hiding it.
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 8:27 pm to
quote:


Europe involves a lot of places that have varying degrees of openness. Put it this way, we can;t fly there now. Clearly, most of those countries are handling the disease better than we are.



Which countries right now economically speaking have businesses open?

Outside of wearing masks what other measures are said European countries "that are handling it better" doing? While keeping their economies and businesses open.

We banned travel from Europe earlier this year and I doubt it's because we were handling it better.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Which countries right now economically speaking have businesses open?


As best I can tell, every country has business open, give or take a Cuba or N. Korea.

quote:

Outside of wearing masks what other measures are said European countries "that are handling it better" doing? While keeping their economies and businesses open.


I listed a few of them earlier in the thread.

quote:

We banned travel from Europe earlier this year and I doubt it's because we were handling it better.

We banned travel from Europe because our NY outbreak was sourced largely from people traveling in from Europe. Eventually, pretty much everywhere banned travel from pretty much everywhere else. The EU now allows international travel again, just not from the US specifically because we are managing so much worse.

Are you really of the belief that we're doing this well? Germany has about as many new cases per day as Iowa. Why can't that be us?
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:28 pm to
quote:

Yes. New Jersey has had its outbreak already. They’re not “managing it better.” It’s a virus.


The implication here is that there is some level of herd immunity that is protecting the NY NJ area. No doubt in some hyperlocal neighborhoods that is true. But broadly speaking, no. The best studies I've seen show that less than a quarter of people have had the virus here. Observationally speaking, there is much more discipline here than I suspect exists in other places. You see masks everywhere. Having lived through April, maybe there is more respect for what the virus can do.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

Or half the testing that Florida is doing, despite having 4x the population.


Let's try this again. Florida is doing 99,000 tests of the community and 11% are positive. Germany is doing 70,000 test per day of largely of people who are either symptomatic or people they have identified as having been exposed and yet of those 70,000 people 300 are positive (0.4%) Do you think if Germany started testing more asymptomatic people that rate would rise or fall?
This post was edited on 7/12/20 at 9:54 pm
Posted by NIH
Member since Aug 2008
112912 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:42 pm to
How would you manage things? More shutdowns? Please be specific. Thanks.
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