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re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 5/28/20 at 9:01 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 5/28/20 at 9:01 pm to lsuman25
Getting those new numbers up quickly. At this rate, the hurricane season will go through the alphabet and the Greek Alphabet. Then we might see the Ebonics alphabet.
This post was edited on 5/28/20 at 9:02 pm
1
Posted on 5/28/20 at 9:32 pm to Klingler7
Too far out to worry
Posted on 5/29/20 at 8:17 am to HailToTheChiz
Current model runs:
GFS- Strong storm in Bay of Campeche 10 Days out. Going back into Mexico beyond that.
Euro- 10 Days out has weak disturbance going into La./ Tx border.
CMC- 10 Days out storm approaching Galveston
GFS- Strong storm in Bay of Campeche 10 Days out. Going back into Mexico beyond that.
Euro- 10 Days out has weak disturbance going into La./ Tx border.
CMC- 10 Days out storm approaching Galveston
Posted on 5/29/20 at 8:20 am to Zephyrius
James Spann
@spann
·
1h
Seeing evidence of a tropical low in the western Gulf of Mexico in 5-10 days. Just something to watch for now.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 8:36 am to lsuman25
High pressure ridge dominating now, stopping northward track into the Gulf
Posted on 5/29/20 at 8:41 am to lsuman25
James Spann typically laughs off long term forecasts, FWIW.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 9:19 am to Zephyrius
Just another amateur storm chaser premature ejaculation.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 10:15 am to CitizenK
quote:
Just another amateur storm chaser premature ejaculation.
King EURO says "not so fast, my friend".
Posted on 5/29/20 at 10:32 am to TDsngumbo
who cares, just another low pressure area. None of their models have been correct for a week now.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 10:43 am to Zephyrius
Wake me up when they give us a cone.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 5:47 pm to OysterPoBoy
Newfoundland you're next
Posted on 5/29/20 at 9:31 pm to rds dc
We've been watching this window for a while now given that tropical forcing and climo are lining up for a favorable period of development. Several years ago discussion of CCKW and CAG were mainly regulated to the research community but have made their way into the weenie vernacular over the past couple of seasons. We can look back to late April for the trigger of this current favorable window of EPAC/WCAB development.
The problem with having that kind of lead time is that it doesn't actually give us any enhanced skill in predicting cyclogenesis. The GFS has an extreme bias to spinning up systems in the WCAB anytime a CCKW is moving through the area, esp. during CAG season.
Now that we are getting closer in time models are starting to get into a bit more reliable range for things that matter like trough and ridge placement, shear magnitude, etc. Both the Euro and GFS show an upper level trough over the Gulf next week that imparts shear over any potential system.
18z Euro for Tuesday
18z Euro EPS for Thursday still has the upper level trough over the Gulf
Overall, while the background state and climo seem to favor development the sensible weather over the Gulf next week doesn't look that favorable. Obviously, that can change in just a few model runs but at a minimum areas along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye out for heavy rain.
The problem with having that kind of lead time is that it doesn't actually give us any enhanced skill in predicting cyclogenesis. The GFS has an extreme bias to spinning up systems in the WCAB anytime a CCKW is moving through the area, esp. during CAG season.
Now that we are getting closer in time models are starting to get into a bit more reliable range for things that matter like trough and ridge placement, shear magnitude, etc. Both the Euro and GFS show an upper level trough over the Gulf next week that imparts shear over any potential system.
18z Euro for Tuesday
18z Euro EPS for Thursday still has the upper level trough over the Gulf
Overall, while the background state and climo seem to favor development the sensible weather over the Gulf next week doesn't look that favorable. Obviously, that can change in just a few model runs but at a minimum areas along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye out for heavy rain.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 9:33 pm to rds dc
Ok, now this thread has teeth.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 9:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
oh no... he's entered a weather thread
Posted on 5/30/20 at 2:09 pm to TDsngumbo
What happened to your storm? No one has been showing anything even close to developing even through next week.
Posted on 5/30/20 at 2:33 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 5/30/20 at 2:38 pm to rds dc
quote:
the weenie vernacular
Huh? Usually much of what you say goes over my head, but this? Is at least funny, rds.
Here's hoping this is a completely quiet and boring season. You can wisecrack instead.
This post was edited on 5/30/20 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 5/30/20 at 2:50 pm to SWLA92
Oh goodie, from the people who cannot forecast weather 24 hrs in advance and one of Euro's many model runs likely before tweaking to reflect analogs.
Posted on 5/30/20 at 2:53 pm to CitizenK
You asked the question where the storm was. I’m not saying for sure there will be a storm in the Gulf next week. I’m just showing you what the model guidances are starting to say there’s potential.
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