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re: Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:34 am to Powerman
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:34 am to Powerman
quote:
But having hypertension or diabetes doesn't mean you were going to die within the next year
Agree. But dying of cancer is different. Or a heart attack. Or, extreme age.
Certainly, we should apply logic to how we are tracking deaths against COVID. Counting heart attacks is just as stupid as not counting high blood pressure.
0
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:36 am to Powerman
quote:
If you look at the numbers and trends, that's not unreasonable
70 is a home run outcome based on what we were looking at just a few weeks ago.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:36 am to Powerman
Numbers kept coming in tens of thousands less than the models were predicting making Trump look good. The blue states started classifying every death as covid instead of ones that were actually covid to try to make the numbers look in line. No different that people being killed in car accidents in Puerto Rico 6 months after Hurricane Maria being added to the list of people killed in Hurricane Maria.
Hospitals get more money if the patient is listed as dying from Covid.
Hospitals get more money if the patient is listed as dying from Covid.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:37 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Say it 50 more times. Doesn't make it a fact. Shw some official data. Not a 3rd rate graph from a 4th rate Brittish tabloid.
To add to this, we can't just show data from New York. New York is obviously the outlier.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:38 am to NC_Tigah
Yeah. People aren’t even wearing masks properly.
If I wash my hands do I really need gloves?
I built a hand washing station in my truck. Before I get in, I wash my hands. No need for gloves, right?
If I wash my hands do I really need gloves?
I built a hand washing station in my truck. Before I get in, I wash my hands. No need for gloves, right?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:54 am to moneyg
quote:
70 is a home run outcome based on what we were looking at just a few weeks ago.
Absolutely. 100k was the lower bound with mitigations. So even if the number is something like 110k you'd have to view it as a success.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:56 am to GurleyGirl
Also insinuating the obvious.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:56 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
traffic fatalities
Well we did find the cure for traffic accidents...
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:13 am to uscpuke
quote:The IMHE model’s original prediction was 84,000, it rose to 94,000, then it’s gone through a series of adjustments down to about 60,000 and back up to about 67,000.
The IMHE model that started at 2.2 million, then 200K, then 80K, then 60K.
It has never predicted more than 94,000 deaths and it looks like that will be an under prediction in the end.
It’s a poorly performing model, but not because of the wrong figures you listed.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:16 am to WaWaWeeWa
Here you go: LINK
==========================================
According to data obtained from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).
==========================================
According to data obtained from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 11:17 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:21 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
It’s a poorly performing model, but not because of the wrong figures you listed.
If the numbers you posted are accurate (I'm sure they are), the model did what it was supposed to do and it it was the source of deriving an expectation for impact with distancing in place, it did its job.
The real question is about the model that was used to predict non-social distancing deaths and counts. I suspect it was off by a HUGE factor. That always has been the question because the numbers were large enough to "justify" shutting down the economy.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:21 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
Here you go
He prefers to focus on New York and extrapolate from there.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 11:22 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:23 am to Powerman
quote:
Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
It was the median run of the IMHE a few revisions ago.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:24 am to Powerman
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:24 am to uscpuke
quote:
The IMHE model that started at 2.2 million, then 200K, then 80K, then 60K.
22 upvotes for something that is categorically false and easily verifiable.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:25 am to GurleyGirl
quote:And that CDC data will be revised upwards for potentially months as there are significant delays in reporting.
total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
Someone found the comparable version of the data YOY a few weeks ago and deaths were up by like 35,000, and I believe that was more than the COVID-19 totals at the time.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:29 am to moneyg
quote:You’re right about that, but my criticisms are in regards to misspecification of the parameters and the underlying distribution it’s fitting.
the model did what it was supposed to do and it it was the source of deriving an expectation for impact with distancing in place, it did its job.
But I think it’s general framework and procedure are good overall.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:48 am to roadGator
quote:In theory gloves are better. Gloves + handwashing is best. But that is only if you don't inadvertently infect yourself vis-a-vis contaminated gloves.
No need for gloves, right?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:48 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The death certificates are completed individually by doctors treating the patient. I know because I’ve completed them myself.
Not poking any bears here, but I have a question: do you fill out Covid death certificates with suspected and/or confirmed cases?
I ask because some of the templates we have seen with instruction make me question the accuracy if "suspected" is included.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:49 am to buckeye_vol
60K, 75K, 100K, NONE of those is a success, IMO. Success would have been getting prepared for this in early January when the Feds first knew what was gonna go down. Success would have been shutting down EVERYWHERE in early March instead of early April.
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