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Started By
Message
re: Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:56 am to GurleyGirl
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:56 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
What's amazing is total deaths from all causes is down 10%.
Link?
All I’ve seen from other countries and New York is deaths way in excess of normal numbers
2
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:56 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
I think the new number is ~70k to 75k for this initial phase, and under 100k by the end of August/September.
The numbers at the tail end of this thing "don't matter," in a sense. There are viruses and they kill people. That's life. I'm all for flattening the curve to prevent deaths beyond the normal expectation, i.e., not an acute pandemic.
That is the number we should focus on, fix that, and get back to work.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:09 am to Powerman
quote:Right.
Toss out NYC & NJ and the number is very feasible.
Well sure, but it would also be a false number. I'm well aware that they make up a huge chunk of the deaths.
But it is interesting that NYC's CV19 deaths per capita are roughly 10X what they are in the rest of the country. 10X ! NYC is at ~1300 dpm vs the rest of the US at ~125 dpm.
It's confounding.
Surely those empty NYC streets, closed businesses, and a great job by Cuomo and DeBlasio which the media keeps showing us should have shut CV19 down.
But NYC cases continue to pour in. Weird.
I wish we could identify the cause.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:19 am to cave canem
quote:
There is no doubt co-mingling of the numbers but no sane person would claim 50%.
quote:
[Dr.] Jensen, April 8: I would remind him that anytime health care intersects with dollars it gets awkward. Right now Medicare has determined that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital, you’ll get paid $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator, you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.
1) "With COVID"-type dodges pay FAR better than a generic admision
2) CDC not only does nothing to discourage the "with COVID" tag or non-tested assignation... they clearly encourage it.
You're living in a fantasy land, Canem. Money talks, bullshite walks
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:21 am to Powerman
quote:
No chance of us coming in under that number at this point
Considering hospitals and states are incentivized to include the rona in any morbidity write-up...
Those numbers are going UP UP UP!
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:29 am to Buckeye Jeaux
Why are there excess deaths?
Explain to us how they are making up extra deaths that haven’t occurred in years past.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:31 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
Toss out NYC & NJ and the number is very feasible.
Wait, you mean to tell me if you exclude two states or just subtract a big chunk of actual deaths from the death count the number is lower than the 60k projection?
You should work in IR.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:33 am to Buckeye Jeaux
Let me know this happens.
A hospital designates a certain percentage of patients as Covid patients on admission?
Where do they assign them to rooms? In a Covid wing?
And the nurses are treating them for Covid while they don’t have it?
Tell us more.
A hospital designates a certain percentage of patients as Covid patients on admission?
Where do they assign them to rooms? In a Covid wing?
And the nurses are treating them for Covid while they don’t have it?
Tell us more.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:36 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The Daily Mail has been widely criticised for its unreliability, as well as printing of sensationalist and inaccurate scare stories of science and medical research,[13][14][15][16][17] and for copyright violations.[18] It is treated as unreliable as a source for articles in Wikipedia
quote:
Explain to us how they are making up extra deaths that haven’t occurred in years past.
It is a Daily Mail graph (check image address), so I'd imagine they pulled out of their arse
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:38 am to Powerman
quote:
Where did the 60K death estimate come from?
Obvious troll.
You know damn well it was from a model.
You know damn well that the models have changed multiple times.
You know damn well that the model's results change as variables change.
You know damn well that variables change over time, hence r0 and Rt, generation interval, positive cases, susceptible individuals.
Trolls gonna troll.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:39 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
What's amazing is total deaths from all causes is down 10%
Can you back that up? That seems almost unbelievable, even in the absence of the virus.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:41 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
What's amazing is total deaths from all causes is down 10%. It would seem that we have discovered a cure for: cancer, heart disease, dementia, ALS, traffic fatalities and really all other forms of death.
Yeah.....
It's almost like because of the economic shutdown, it seems almost like no one is driving as much these past months, no one is working heavy equipment, everyone is relaxing staying at home and just waiting, no one is having as many at-work injuries and fatalities, no one is massing together in public places having arguments, fights, knife and gun fatalities. No one is getting into fights at the counters inside the local McDonalds'. It's crazy, isn't it.
Isn't it????
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:43 am to Buckeye Jeaux
The numbers come from the public health department. The numbers of excess deaths are everywhere.
The death certificates are completed individually by doctors treating the patient. I know because I’ve completed them myself. You think there is a broad city wide conspiracy of doctors to lie on death certificates?
Occam’s razor man: there is a novel respiratory virus that kills 0.6% of those infected. Mainly the old and sick. You don’t need to jump to conspiracy theories to tell us we need to get back to work. The virus can be bad and we still need to get back to work. Your approach is all wrong.
The death certificates are completed individually by doctors treating the patient. I know because I’ve completed them myself. You think there is a broad city wide conspiracy of doctors to lie on death certificates?
Occam’s razor man: there is a novel respiratory virus that kills 0.6% of those infected. Mainly the old and sick. You don’t need to jump to conspiracy theories to tell us we need to get back to work. The virus can be bad and we still need to get back to work. Your approach is all wrong.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 9:44 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:43 am to NC_Tigah
What good do the gloves do? Does the virus see the gloves and just die out of fear of blue latex?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:45 am to GurleyGirl
quote:Negative.
total deaths from all causes is down 10%.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:45 am to IslandBuckeye
quote:
Obvious troll.
You know damn well it was from a model.
You know damn well that the models have changed multiple times.
You know damn well that the model's results change as variables change.
You know damn well that variables change over time, hence r0 and Rt, generation interval, positive cases, susceptible individuals.
Trolls gonna troll.
How is asking a question a troll?
I seem to remember that number being touted recently (within the last couple weeks) and in retrospect it seems like just a terrible prediction.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:45 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The numbers come from the public health department.
Then link that "public health department" - not the friggin Daily Mail. You couldn't have picked a less reliable source
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:51 am to roadGator
quote:IF they are used properly, they can help. When you see folks scratching their noses with gloved hands, it becomes quickly apparent they are rarely used properly.
What good do the gloves do?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:53 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The death certificates are completed individually by doctors treating the patient. I know because I’ve completed them myself. You think there is a broad city wide conspiracy of doctors to lie on death certificates?
I'm not a doc, but I have 4 in my family. The abrupt (and highly questionable to fraudulent) changes in CDC COVID-19 reporting are well known in the medical community AND in the general public.
Quit blowing smoke. You're embarrassing yourself.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 9:56 am to Powerman
quote:
How is asking a question a troll?
I disagree with many of your conclusions as I see you as a contrarian, but you do seem to be too dialed in to not understand the mortality question.
In other words, I see you as a bright guy that loves to argue.
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