- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:22 am to Whiznot
quote:
I worry most about the healthcare system getting overwhelmed. We can all help prevent that from happening.
You mean like the last time we worried about this and ended up furloughing umpteen thousands of healthcare workers and watching emergency hospital ships sit empty in harbors?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 7:47 am to David_DJS
Does anyone have any good data on excess deaths? I’ve read some people say we’re actually behind the number of deaths we had at this point last year, while others have stated we’re about 229k ABOVE this point in 2019. What is correct?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:16 am to wfallstiger
Where are all of the flu cases?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:20 am to b-rab2
LINK
We don’t know shite. All the data is garbage.
We don’t know shite. All the data is garbage.
quote:
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services earlier this week suspended Gamma Healthcare’s Poplar Bluff license, and a federal judge on Wednesday ruled he won’t step in to keep the lab open. The Poplar Bluff lab tested for coronavirus at around 2,500 nursing homes in 11 states. Those states are Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas.
Health officials say two testing machines at the lab operated for months producing false-negatives on over a quarter of known-positive COVID-19 samples. Lawyers for the lab say it’s fixed the issues and should be allowed to stay open.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:29 am to S1C EM
The only figure that I've seen for excess deaths is 300,000.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:32 am to S1C EM
Our World In Data has a good interactive graphic where you can plug in different countries and compare excess deaths over the course of the pandemic. We had our biggest spike of excess deaths in April (about 45% above normal at its max peak). The last data they have for the US is in early September.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:35 am to Whiznot
quote:
The only figure that I've seen for excess deaths is 300,000.
That's the number that came out of the CDC last week. LINK
quote:
From January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, an estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died in the United States.** Excess deaths reached their highest points to date during the weeks ending April 11 (40.4% excess) and August 8, 2020 (23.5% excess) (Figure 1). Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:44 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes
Lol.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:41 am to the808bass
We'll all expect you to keep your principled belief in the overestimation of deaths into the Biden adminstration, bass.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 10:03 am to TigerDoc
I will. Thanks.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 10:39 am to TigerDoc
quote:
We'll all expect you to keep your principled belief in the overestimation of deaths into the Biden adminstration, bass.
Nobody cares how you feel.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:06 am to the808bass
quote:
quote:
Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes
Lol.
Hey 808, do you have some consolidated post or thread going over your reasoning on the overestimating thing?
ETA: I see a post on this page saying "all the data are garbage" and that we know basically nothing. Is that your main basis?
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 11:10 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:17 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Hey 808, do you have some consolidated post or thread going over your reasoning on the overestimating thing?
All the CDC did is use their own existing data in TigerDoc’s post. It’s no surprise that it matched up. How many excess deaths not due to Covid? Subtract our current Covid counts from excess total deaths. Presto.
I am also suspicious of double counting of excess deaths in the case of the death certificate matching/harvesting.
ETA: We know that many of the Covid deaths are being labeled Covid 6+ weeks after the death. I have less than complete confidence that some of these aren’t being double counted. IOW, death on June 1st gets reported to CDC in week 2 of June. In week 3 of July, that death gets labeled a Covid death. Is the week 2 June death backed out?
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 11:25 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:21 am to the808bass
quote:
All the CDC did is use their own existing data in TigerDoc’s post. It’s no surprise that it matched up. How many excess deaths not due to Covid? Subtract our current Covid counts from excess total deaths. Presto.
I was getting at something broader than that. Haven't read the thread except the last few posts, and maybe I read too much into Doc mentioning a principled belief of overestimation into another administration. I took it to mean a more general position, than simply a position on a single study that y'all seem to be talking about.
ETA: guess I'll try to go back and pin down exactly what's being talked about. I'm guessing the reason this thread has lasted so long is bc of some debate over what is and what isn't an actual "COVID death"?
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 11:23 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:26 am to 90proofprofessional
No. The thread has lasted this long because it has daily updates on data.
I think that has played into our general distrust of the data as we watch it roll in.
I think that has played into our general distrust of the data as we watch it roll in.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:34 am to the808bass
quote:
No. The thread has lasted this long because it has daily updates on data.
I think that has played into our general distrust of the data as we watch it roll in.
Let me put it another way.
Does the reason this thread has several thousand posts have more to do with "general distrust" of "the data", or with the fact that it has been updated daily for ~250 days?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:39 am to 90proofprofessional
The fact that it has been updated daily.
That said, there is lots of conversation in the thread dating back to the beginning about what we call in the thread, Data frickery.
That said, there is lots of conversation in the thread dating back to the beginning about what we call in the thread, Data frickery.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:43 am to Chromdome35
Cool thanks OP. Props on all the data work too.
Can you give me a bottom line on your take regarding the cumulative effect of the Data frickery that you've seen?
Can you give me a bottom line on your take regarding the cumulative effect of the Data frickery that you've seen?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 11:47 am to 90proofprofessional
I really don't know that it's possible to measure its impact. Every state is doing its own thing which makes it difficult to see a comprehensive view of the impact.
Today, Arkansas might decide to reclass 200 deaths to being covid. Tomorrow CA might add 50,000 new cases because of a lab backlog. There are constant tweaks being made to the numbers by the states.
Edit, I think you have to look at the general trends in the numbers to gauge what is happening with the outbreak. We are in an obvious upswing period, how much of that is due to data frickery, who knows.
Today, Arkansas might decide to reclass 200 deaths to being covid. Tomorrow CA might add 50,000 new cases because of a lab backlog. There are constant tweaks being made to the numbers by the states.
Edit, I think you have to look at the general trends in the numbers to gauge what is happening with the outbreak. We are in an obvious upswing period, how much of that is due to data frickery, who knows.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 11:49 am
Page 329 of 331
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News