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re: One other common theme from the "Democratic" debates tonight
Posted on 10/16/19 at 2:09 am to efrad
Posted on 10/16/19 at 2:09 am to efrad
There was a significant amount of upheaval at the start of the industrial revolution and while they eventually settled into a new system with new jobs, there was also a lot of turmoil. I believe they also implemented universal high school as a result.
The tech / automation and AI wave is already hitting and just gaining steam. Over 90% of the jobs created in the last 10 years were gig work, part time with no benefits. While new, well paying, jobs will certainly be created, they will most likely not be jobs you and I are not trained / capable of filling (and will also likely be less in number as robots start to do human work). I personally think UBI is needed to help cushion ourselves, and the majority of our country, for the coming change.
I've enjoyed hitting some of these points with people with different views but need to go to bed. I'll try and check back tomorrow to see if anyone else is interested / curious about some of these policies.
The tech / automation and AI wave is already hitting and just gaining steam. Over 90% of the jobs created in the last 10 years were gig work, part time with no benefits. While new, well paying, jobs will certainly be created, they will most likely not be jobs you and I are not trained / capable of filling (and will also likely be less in number as robots start to do human work). I personally think UBI is needed to help cushion ourselves, and the majority of our country, for the coming change.
I've enjoyed hitting some of these points with people with different views but need to go to bed. I'll try and check back tomorrow to see if anyone else is interested / curious about some of these policies.
This post was edited on 10/16/19 at 2:16 am
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Posted on 10/16/19 at 2:14 am to Carl Tuckerson
quote:
Further, Yang's made what was in my mind a ridiculous statement--that he would punish "white supremacists" and other double plus ungood thinkers by rendering them ineligible for UBI--which completely ruins the whole idea. Since inflation affects everyone, tying the force that's supposed to offset inflation to adherence to certain political views is odiously coercive
Fyi, I have looked at lot of Yang stuff amd havent seen anything like this. (I'd also be very surprised if that statement was correct, but would love to see it if so as it would change my mind). From my understanding it is to all citizens over 18 no questions asked unless they are actively serving a prison sentence.
He has said he is about bring people together - not left, not right, forward - so seeing that kind of coercive intent with UBI would be very disheartening.
This post was edited on 10/16/19 at 2:18 am
Posted on 10/16/19 at 3:05 am to SOKAL
quote:
I think he raises a legitimate concern about AI and robotics displacing workers, and it's too bad that he really has not had a chance to explain his concerns
Do people not realize that innovation and automation have displaced workers throughout time, especially since the Industrial Revolution began? When a robot displaces an assembly line worker, the market adjusts and new jobs are created to build the robots, program the robots, maintain the robots, and design future robots manufacture robot parts, etc.
We have record low unemployment. Are many underemployed because the skills they have are no longer needed? Yes, but we must always work on developing new skills during a 40-50 year long career in order to stay relevant and employable.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 3:57 am to Carl Tuckerson
Yang is a snake oil salesman and a con. (1) Who determines what and who a "white supremacist" is. Government and the wild lib living next door who alerts authorities she has some white male living next to her with a Trump or GOP sticker or who hunts with a big ole gun.
And the other crimes against humanity sins. The books would be full of them like the current Chinese system of ratting for dollars on people who put their garbage in the wrong can or speed 5 MPH. Or have loud parties. Even the lady who dresses too provocatively and causes someone's husband to pay her too much attention, etc. These people earn negative points and are treated like pariahs and second class citizens in their own country. And (2) What other crimes against the people would soon be on the books and what of "Lib supremacists or black supremacists or Asian supremacists. Thought crimes. The list would be endless and the party in charge would determine that. Yang is a misfit in a free society.
And the other crimes against humanity sins. The books would be full of them like the current Chinese system of ratting for dollars on people who put their garbage in the wrong can or speed 5 MPH. Or have loud parties. Even the lady who dresses too provocatively and causes someone's husband to pay her too much attention, etc. These people earn negative points and are treated like pariahs and second class citizens in their own country. And (2) What other crimes against the people would soon be on the books and what of "Lib supremacists or black supremacists or Asian supremacists. Thought crimes. The list would be endless and the party in charge would determine that. Yang is a misfit in a free society.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 4:35 am to efrad
quote:
The same line of thinking was started in the industrial revolution. It didn't happen then and it won't happen now because automation ends up creating new jobs too. Agricultural machinery didn't put us on our asses, it paved the way for once-preoccupied humans to become computer programmers. Thus the problem is not unemployment but displacement as older jobs stop existing but much of the labor force is too old to start a new career.
Many of the problems mentioned in this thread are government created and would go away with deregulation, not adding more layers of bureaucracy and overhead to society.
This, this, and this. Trillions unemployed with the industrial revolution....dnt happen. Then, computers will do all our thinking and trillions out of work....dnt happen. AI is just an updated version of the aforementioned.
Universal wage has been tried. The thinking was, give them a wage and they would not be forced to work in a barista job, preventing them from having time to find a job better suited to their skills. It did not work, employment did not improve. The only positive result was people felt less stressed, no shat give me free money and I would be less stressed.
VAT is a good idea, if you did away with income tax. VAT would capture all the people evading traditional income tax, the people with private jobs under the table, the millions of illegals, etc. Would never pass, liberals would say its a burden on the poor to a greater extent than the wealthy.....course these same liberals have no problem passing some of the highest fuel taxes in the country which ALWAYS hit the poor most.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 4:52 am to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
What sort of brought me around to the idea of the UBI is thinking of automation on down the line. You can already create a company without having to employ a lot of people on today's market.
The scenario in which AI ushers about doomsday for the employed is not the only scenario and in fact it’s not likely given the history of technological innovation.
Go listen to Naval Ravatic on this subject for a different and I believe more accurate prediction.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 6:55 am to SOKAL
quote:I've heard that line all my life. All through the 70's and 80's it was "computerization will replace workers" and "personal computers will displace workers". I've read and been told by elders when they were alive how the same was said about assembly line production, then how vertical and horizontal manufacturing/distribution would displace workers.
I think he raises a legitimate concern about AI and robotics displacing workers, and it's too bad that he really has not had a chance to explain his concerns
TL/DR: old, old, old hook this "____ will displace workers" BS. Hunger is a great motivator and will lead to employment.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:04 am to Robin Masters
I have listened to him before like a ton if what he says - particularly on the jRE podcast about 3rd party candidates (I think we desperately need a major 3rd party). In terms of tech / automation, a lot of his ideas are possible and even ideal moving forward. He is 100% correct about the gig economy, that is already happening as I alluded to in a post above as more and more people / jobs are 1099 and contract work. Yang has a much more capitalist view of his planned UBI program where as ravikant views it as a small step from socialism (I think). Yang envisions it spurring small business in our communities from local operations, creating jobs, etc... I feel like that discussion may be a bit tangential to the context of this thread though.
Regarding the worker doomsday scenario - He has a much stronger belief in the ability of people whose jobs will soon be displaced being retrained for the the future jobs of the next generation. In addition, Yangs vision IF he becomes president is to avoid that doomsday scenario (he needs to get better at getting this across).
IMO if we can get ahead of this and put leaders in place who recognize it, we can make this revolution work for us and make the people of this country have better lives instead of having it cause tremendous negative upheaval for lots of people.
He talks in some of his longer speeches about how his vision is people being free to do the kind of work they enjoy as robots take over the hard labor and other kind of jobs. For example truckers, yang has said we should be celebrating the fact that millions of truck drivers no longer have to do a job with such negative impacts on their health and the forces them away from their families.
Yang says he decided to run for president when he went to Washington to figure out what people were planning to do about the tech / automation wave and nobody had any clue about how to take any initiative on it. That is what scares me. This technology is a great leap for our society, I just think we need leaders in place capable of identifying and taking on the challenges it will present.
Regarding the worker doomsday scenario - He has a much stronger belief in the ability of people whose jobs will soon be displaced being retrained for the the future jobs of the next generation. In addition, Yangs vision IF he becomes president is to avoid that doomsday scenario (he needs to get better at getting this across).
IMO if we can get ahead of this and put leaders in place who recognize it, we can make this revolution work for us and make the people of this country have better lives instead of having it cause tremendous negative upheaval for lots of people.
He talks in some of his longer speeches about how his vision is people being free to do the kind of work they enjoy as robots take over the hard labor and other kind of jobs. For example truckers, yang has said we should be celebrating the fact that millions of truck drivers no longer have to do a job with such negative impacts on their health and the forces them away from their families.
Yang says he decided to run for president when he went to Washington to figure out what people were planning to do about the tech / automation wave and nobody had any clue about how to take any initiative on it. That is what scares me. This technology is a great leap for our society, I just think we need leaders in place capable of identifying and taking on the challenges it will present.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:07 am to Sidicous
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/18/21 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:07 am to jimdog
Can yall clue me in on this whole white supremacist thing a couple have referenced? That is definitely something I would like to see as some sort of coercive intent of the UBI would significantly impact my support
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:07 am to Rip N Lip
Well, one of them wanted to create a new federal organization called “the office of reproductive rights”. 
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:09 am to Sneaky__Sally
Free money, I fricking love it.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 8:03 am to Sneaky__Sally
quote:this is complete gibberish
Long story short, the VAT will cause some forms of inflation and would be a problem without UBI; however, since he plans to put that money into consumers hands - the result will be an overall increase in purchasing power for most americans (which will help spur the economy, particularly in small towns and local businesses)
Posted on 10/16/19 at 9:23 am to Rip N Lip
quote:Gabbard has domestic policy ideas?
Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang at least think outside the bo
Posted on 10/16/19 at 12:13 pm to Carl Tuckerson
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 2:11 am
Posted on 10/16/19 at 12:19 pm to Rip N Lip
Yang wants a national wage for everyone. That’s not outside the box. That’s friggin buying votes. Been done for years. He’s just being very blatant about it.
Tulsi seems reasonable.
Buttigieg seems reasonable.
Otherwise the rest are either pretenders or whacko.
Tulsi seems reasonable.
Buttigieg seems reasonable.
Otherwise the rest are either pretenders or whacko.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 12:36 pm to efrad
You're just putting words in my mouth. Nowhere did I say economic interventionism is always necessary or flirt with central planning or socialism. I don't think Yang's idea will work out the way he wants it to. That doesn't mean he doesn't have a point about the danger of automation.
Where are people going to go when they're not needed anymore? You can point to the Industrial Revolution all you want, but we didn't see massive dropping out of the labor force like we do now. Look at the Rust Belt. Your factory workers haven't moved on to repairing and designing the robots that run the factories. They've gone on disability and killed themselves with opioids.
Where are people going to go when they're not needed anymore? You can point to the Industrial Revolution all you want, but we didn't see massive dropping out of the labor force like we do now. Look at the Rust Belt. Your factory workers haven't moved on to repairing and designing the robots that run the factories. They've gone on disability and killed themselves with opioids.
Posted on 10/16/19 at 12:49 pm to efrad
quote:
This is simply a lack of economic understanding from those who think economic interventionism is always necessary. Precisely the thing that scares people like you most (vast quantities of production with no labor needed) will drive down the prices of goods so much that items we consider more of a luxury or something worth saving for will become basic item
This is 100% true and will be a great benefit of the automation wave - I hope that with leaders who acknowledge and try to embrace these changes, we can magnify these types of benefits for as many people possible while mitigating the negative impacts where possible.
quote:
As long as we actually enforce anti-trust laws so that competition can keep costs low, there is no reason for the ridiculous hysteria and flirting with central planning and socialist policies
This is the part where we disagree, trying to forecast that anti-trust laws saying that it will keep competition and costs low just doesn't seem to apply when we are talking about amazon and google as this big companies to apply anti-trust laws. These companies are making costs low in large part because they are so large. That isn't to say that anti-trust laws should be ignored completely (if amazon is promoting their own in house brand of a product and stifling competition) for example; however, I don't think anti-trust laws really apply to these future problems we are talking about as they were designed to help regulate a different kind of economy.
Finally, the characterization of UBI as socialism doesn't ring true to me. UBI is just money, put into the people's hands to participate in capitalist markets. Markets with large portions of people without purchasing power are dysfunctional as a large portion of people are unable to let their voice be heard.
So, while I certainly agree that new jobs, which we cant even currently fathom will be created - those jobs will require incredibly difference skillsets. We should absolutely try to retrain these displaced workers for the jobs of the future, but I am pessimistic about the effectiveness of such programs (Yang often sites the manufacturing worker retraining programs of having a 0% - 15% success rate).
These two beliefs lead me to believe that, when automation and technology begins to largely replace more retail workers, call center workers, professional clerk / data entry workers, etc. - a large portion will be left behind and left scraping by with no real purchasing power. The UBI then becomes a necessary injection into these workers hands to allow capitalist markets to function property.
Finally, I'll quote a statement regarding Alaska that ties into this socialism vs. capitalism idea.
quote:
It comes from the oil companies. How? Well, Alaska owns the land and charges oil companies for the right to drill in it. They then put 25% of the earnings in the APF. Being the conservative state it is, they figure that the government should keep it's damn hands off that money. The APF is not to be touched, and the dividends go directly to Alaskans because Alaskans know far better what to do with that money than government does. As a result, the dividend boosts and stabilizes the economy, and every year come dividend time, local businesses compete against each other for the business of Alaskan consumers armed with dividend checks.
This post was edited on 10/16/19 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 10/16/19 at 2:02 pm to Carl Tuckerson
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 2:11 am
Posted on 10/16/19 at 2:37 pm to efrad
Yeah you have fun continuing to talk to the evil socialist straw man you think you're talking to. I'm just gonna head out. You obviously have no depth of understanding of what's happening to the working class in this country.
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