re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets

I was dreading the approach of this day.

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If the markets go another 5% or so higher and exceed the Fall 2018 peak, then that will certainly be egg on my face

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The previous 2,940.91 high from 9/21/2018 has been surpassed. Egg on my face. I was wrong.

I still maintain my main thesis about current overvaluation and how bad the severity of the end of this bull market is going to be, and I still see gigantic never-before-seen divergences and other historical oddities. I still have a very large portion of my portfolio in cash (i.e., cash + short-term bonds), I took decent precautions regarding my allocations, and I don't feel bad about missing out on gains this year.

Still, there's no excusing the losses I've incurred over the first 4 months of this year. I entered too hard in late January on the faintest of signals of increasing VIX without waiting for more evidence that the next leg down had actually commenced, or that unemployment had actually bottomed.

On the brighter side, I think I've learned a valuable lesson, and I still have tons of dry powder to make money once this whale of a rally finally flips course. But I'll be more humble about it, and try to just take what the market's giving me, rather than trying to be such a front-runner. I will live to see better days ahead, hopefully sooner rather than later.

For those who have been bullish or else just passively invested in equities this year, congrats. You've eaten my lunch for the first 1/3 of the year.