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8-4 regular season is the floor... here's why
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:11 pm
The Advocate pointed out today that the last time we had 2 scholarship QB's was 2014. We had sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris. This year we have RS junior Joe Burrow and sophomore Myles Brennan.
The 2014 schedule featured 5 preseason ranked teams - Wisconsin, Auburn, Ole Miss, Bama, and A&M.
The 2018 schedule features 5 preseason ranked teams - Miami, Auburn, Georgia, Miss St, and Bama.
2014 LSU returned 11 starters, led by La'el Collins, Tre White, and Kwon Alexander.
2018 LSU returns 11 starters, led by Devin White, Rashard Lawrence, and Greedy Williams.
The 2014 team went 8-4 in the regular season. We are better at QB now, better on defense now, and the schedule is no tougher.
The 2014 schedule featured 5 preseason ranked teams - Wisconsin, Auburn, Ole Miss, Bama, and A&M.
The 2018 schedule features 5 preseason ranked teams - Miami, Auburn, Georgia, Miss St, and Bama.
2014 LSU returned 11 starters, led by La'el Collins, Tre White, and Kwon Alexander.
2018 LSU returns 11 starters, led by Devin White, Rashard Lawrence, and Greedy Williams.
The 2014 team went 8-4 in the regular season. We are better at QB now, better on defense now, and the schedule is no tougher.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:17 pm to RidiculousHype
8 wins has been LSU's floor since 2001. Why would anyone expect that to change now?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:22 pm to RidiculousHype
I always thought 10 wins was the floor. Since when did a 8 or 9 wins season become OK with LSU fans. This programs attitude has really deteriorated. It's a tough schedule but 11 wins is within reach if everything breaks right for us.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:45 pm to RidiculousHype
Also, the OP's methodology is off. You are equating all of the top 25 as equal. In 2014, we had two preseason top 10 teams on our schedule, plus three other top 25 teams who were all ranked lower than us.
This year, we play four preseason top 10 teams and five top 25 teams overall, all of which are ranked higher than us.
I think preseason polls are crap. But if you look at 2014 and 2018 on that basis only, we have a much harder schedule this year. Thus, the over/under being at 7.5 is pretty fair if you use 2014's 8-4 performance against a weaker schedule as your "norm."
This year, we play four preseason top 10 teams and five top 25 teams overall, all of which are ranked higher than us.
I think preseason polls are crap. But if you look at 2014 and 2018 on that basis only, we have a much harder schedule this year. Thus, the over/under being at 7.5 is pretty fair if you use 2014's 8-4 performance against a weaker schedule as your "norm."
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:52 pm to RidiculousHype
Wow! Look another post that will lead to bashing of coaches . Congrads on being that guy!
Posted on 8/16/18 at 4:53 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
8-4 regular season is the floor
I cannot tell you how exciting this is to hear.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 5:07 pm to RidiculousHype
I expect 10-2 and will be disappointed with anything less.
9-3 could happen, but anything worse than 9-3 will be a failure IMO and will absolutely deserve criticism for a program whose expectations should be to be nationally competitive.
Schedule is no tougher than most of the last 20 years. 3 of the 4 toughest games on the schedule are at home, and the one tough OOC game will basically be an LSU home game against an overrated ACC team with 10 fans. Yeah, Georgia is good, but they've basically "replaced" our annual Top10 matchup with Florida this year with Florida being down.
9-3 could happen, but anything worse than 9-3 will be a failure IMO and will absolutely deserve criticism for a program whose expectations should be to be nationally competitive.
Schedule is no tougher than most of the last 20 years. 3 of the 4 toughest games on the schedule are at home, and the one tough OOC game will basically be an LSU home game against an overrated ACC team with 10 fans. Yeah, Georgia is good, but they've basically "replaced" our annual Top10 matchup with Florida this year with Florida being down.
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 5:09 pm to RidiculousHype
Schedule is tougher than 2014.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 5:38 pm to RidiculousHype
I’m not saying it’ll happen, but I feel like our floor is 6-6. We start 1-2 then the wheels start to come off as pressure builds and we get into that tough SEC slate.
Now realistically, I expect we’ll be 8-4/9-3. I will forever pull for the Tigers though so I’d love to watch them surprise me.
Now realistically, I expect we’ll be 8-4/9-3. I will forever pull for the Tigers though so I’d love to watch them surprise me.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 5:48 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
8-4 regular season is the ceiling
FIFY
Look, I'll be rooting for us to go 15-0, but logic tells me we'll go 8-4.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 6:27 pm to RidiculousHype
4 wins is the floor and 10 wins is the ceiling.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:15 pm to RidiculousHype
8-4 ain’t good enough
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:18 pm to RidiculousHype
It’s possible but the lack of running game scares me. We could dominate Miami and I wouldn’t be shocked. But then going to Auburn will be tough.
9 wins is doable by 7-8 is more likely.
9 wins is doable by 7-8 is more likely.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:26 pm to RidiculousHype
If you think the basis for the season is comparing it to 2014, then you forgot to add that in 2014 we had the most touted freshman running back in my lifetime, probably ever at LSU, being added to a lineup in Leonard Fournette and the #20 athlete, Darrell Williams, at running back to a backfield that already included Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard.
Not sure if that should make us feel better or worse but it gives me pause.![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Not sure if that should make us feel better or worse but it gives me pause.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:19 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
8-4 regular season is the floor
I think you're getting your ceilings and floors mixed up.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 10:07 pm to RidiculousHype
Idiot. Look in the backfield dumbass. Who takes the pressure off of the QB? There isn’t a Collins on that line.
Leave with your bullshite.
Leave with your bullshite.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 7:31 am to RidiculousHype
I guess if there's a silver lining in the cluster frick that has been our athletic department the last few years at least I no longer expect to lose a game due to clock management
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:56 am to RidiculousHype
It depends on what you mean by "floor".
If floor = the worst record conceivable by LSU, then that number is 3-9. That happens if LSU loses to Miami, loses to Auburn and the team loses faith in the coaches and quits. (BTW - Oregeron still keeps his job in that scenario. I don't know what happens to Alleva).
If floor = the worst record we should expect from LSU and it keep its HC and AD, then yes, 8-4 is the floor.
People are just rationalizing when they think there is no way LSU could lose more than 4 games this year based on information from prior teams and prior coaching staffs.
We know from Archer, Hallman, and DiNardo (and Johnny Jones for that matter) that it can get ugly really fast and it can be really difficult to rebuild a winning program once it gets destroyed.
If floor = the worst record conceivable by LSU, then that number is 3-9. That happens if LSU loses to Miami, loses to Auburn and the team loses faith in the coaches and quits. (BTW - Oregeron still keeps his job in that scenario. I don't know what happens to Alleva).
If floor = the worst record we should expect from LSU and it keep its HC and AD, then yes, 8-4 is the floor.
People are just rationalizing when they think there is no way LSU could lose more than 4 games this year based on information from prior teams and prior coaching staffs.
We know from Archer, Hallman, and DiNardo (and Johnny Jones for that matter) that it can get ugly really fast and it can be really difficult to rebuild a winning program once it gets destroyed.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 10:25 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
8-4 regular season is the floor... here's why
Sure, but this season has 9 wins written all over it. There are too many uncertainties with too difficult of a schedule for us to have a magical season.
I expect we'll be competitive in every game (unlike last year's Mississippi State and Alabama game) and I don't think we'll have any embarrassing moments (thanks O for that Troy game), but I see 9 wins. Losses to Auburn, Alabama, and someone else - Georgia, Miami, A&M, Florida?
This post was edited on 8/17/18 at 10:26 am
Posted on 8/17/18 at 3:40 pm to RidiculousHype
not so sure I'd say defense is for sure better than 2014... 2014 D was top 3 in the country
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