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re: Halfway to Realignment Status Report
Posted on 7/20/18 at 3:59 pm to cardboardboxer
Posted on 7/20/18 at 3:59 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
You want to play Texas on Thanksgiving Arky? Done.
You want the Big 12 to hype up that game with THEIR media dollars to impress recruits? Done.
You want to pick what division you are in after realignment? Done.
You want to pick the 12th team that also joins? Done.
Are you talking about Arkansas or Alabama?
1
Posted on 7/20/18 at 4:04 pm to theOG
quote:
Are you talking about Arkansas or Alabama?
Lol, we both know that getting Arkansas is like a best case scenario for the Big 12.
The Big 12 evaluated all the other potential expansion candidates and found them lacking a few years ago.
If a SEC team, almost any SEC team, wanted to join that would solidify the league for a long time.
The rest of the leverage comes from the fact that Texas's home schedule sucks and so they would love to have a new rivalry to put on the calender every year.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 4:26 pm to cardboardboxer
I would say the ACC is doing Great honestly.
Everyone thought they would die.
They stayed alive, picked up some teams (ND in all but football and L'ville) and won 2 national titles in football.
Everyone thought they would die.
They stayed alive, picked up some teams (ND in all but football and L'ville) and won 2 national titles in football.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 4:34 pm to I Bleed Garnet
I think the small conferences made out like bandits. they were never aiming for a shot at the national title, but they got something better: a guaranteed slot in one of the major bowls. Sure, only one Group of 5 team goes, but it is guaranteed one goes, which is a much better situation than before, or any point in college football history. They have access to the money pipe, albeit on a restricted basis. But it's better than they had, and they have a locked in place at the table. That's a huge deal for the smaller programs.
I'm not sure ESPN is a big loser in the current makeup. I won't speculate about the future, but ESPN essentially controls every major conference team EXCEPT the Pac-12, and that's the conference dying on the vine. They own virtually every bowl and they own the most powerful conference network (SECN). They also just created their ESPN+ model which will put all of the games behind a pay wall. People will buck, and then eventually pay because if we're serious about cutting the cord, ESPN+ is obviously the future, and it maintains a revenue stream. The network is reasonably priced, and it has a massive inventory of virtually every NCAA game. And it's still cheap than GamePlan used to be, by several orders of magnitude. And with more selection.
Amazon and Netflix don't have live TV yet. Maybe they will in five years, as Hulu is now in the game. But the streaming services have not shown they can do live TV, much less sports. ESPN+ has a huge leg up on them. I won't say it can't happen in five years because the world changes fast, but I do think we might be speaking ESPn's eulogy far too early. They are still the most powerful force on college sports.
I'm not sure ESPN is a big loser in the current makeup. I won't speculate about the future, but ESPN essentially controls every major conference team EXCEPT the Pac-12, and that's the conference dying on the vine. They own virtually every bowl and they own the most powerful conference network (SECN). They also just created their ESPN+ model which will put all of the games behind a pay wall. People will buck, and then eventually pay because if we're serious about cutting the cord, ESPN+ is obviously the future, and it maintains a revenue stream. The network is reasonably priced, and it has a massive inventory of virtually every NCAA game. And it's still cheap than GamePlan used to be, by several orders of magnitude. And with more selection.
Amazon and Netflix don't have live TV yet. Maybe they will in five years, as Hulu is now in the game. But the streaming services have not shown they can do live TV, much less sports. ESPN+ has a huge leg up on them. I won't say it can't happen in five years because the world changes fast, but I do think we might be speaking ESPn's eulogy far too early. They are still the most powerful force on college sports.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 4:58 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
And imagine what the Big 12 (read: Texas) would be willing to do to get them over there. Arky would have a TON of leverage because they would basically save the Big 12 and give that conference back some pride after getting poached by the SEC.
Arky basically broke the back of the Southwest Conference. How interesting it would be if they saved the Big XII, with several Southwest Conference teams.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 4:59 pm to cardboardboxer
Really, there's no reason why the ACC shouldn't be one of the top 3 conferences every year. It's only within the last few years the league has really started living up to its potential
Posted on 7/20/18 at 5:00 pm to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
I would say the ACC is doing Great honestly.
I thought the ACC would be bad, the Pac 12 would be great, and Big XII would be meh.
In reality, the ACC is great, the Pac 12 is bad, and the Big XII is meh.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 5:06 pm to Baloo
quote:You think all of the games will eventually go behind a paywall? Right now, it's mostly G5 games from what I can tell.
They also just created their ESPN+ model which will put all of the games behind a pay wall. People will buck, and then eventually pay because if we're serious about cutting the cord, ESPN+ is obviously the future, and it maintains a revenue stream.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 5:19 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
The ACC Channel will probably never come thanks to this changing environment, and soon maybe even the SEC Network might find its revenues inching backwards.
ACCN is locked in. There is no way ESPN backs down on launching that.
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 5:28 pm to cardboardboxer
Who would the Pac 12 go after? Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.? BYU?
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:04 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
Netflix and Amazon
They can go F themselves. If Netflix keeps giving out money to this original programming, there may not be much for football. I will be curious if they can sustain the financials they are running with nowadays.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:11 pm to Chitter Chatter
There are more Netflix subscribers than all cable providers combined. If anything, their early investments in new shows will pay bigger dividends down the road.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:24 pm to Baloo
First of all, thank you for the great response to my post. I agree with a lot of what you say.
I think it depends on where you are at in the group. It is good for teams that barely make the G5 cut (more money), but bad for almost Power 5 teams like Uconn or Boise St.
But that is the problem- today ESPN gets money from people who aren’t even fans of sports because it’s part of the cable bill.
As that bundle dies off, the number of people willing to pay extra just for ESPN is smaller than people who paid for it and never watched it. Basically daytime soap watching grandmas have been subsidizing sports for years, and ESPN will be the biggest loser when that isn’t the case.
Plus frankly without that subsidy I think sports fans will be shocked to see how much ESPN really costs. Will they be willing to pay $200+ a year to see college sports when most NFL games will come for free over an antenna? Maybe not. And the less that sign up the more expensive it is per sports fan.
They are still king today, and they will still be a player in five years, but they won’t be the only big player like in 2011.
But not because of a technology problem.
They don’t have live tv because they don’t have advertisements like cable does, so the live aspect is worth less to them than to cable channels. That is why Hulu has it, Hulu has ads.
Eventually Amazon and Netflix will want live sports because it’s content with a guaranteed fan base, but for now they see it as overpriced because of its benefit of forcing people to watch commercials that they don’t need.
quote:
I think the small conferences made out like bandits
I think it depends on where you are at in the group. It is good for teams that barely make the G5 cut (more money), but bad for almost Power 5 teams like Uconn or Boise St.
quote:
They also just created their ESPN+ model which will put all of the games behind a pay wall. People will buck, and then eventually pay
But that is the problem- today ESPN gets money from people who aren’t even fans of sports because it’s part of the cable bill.
As that bundle dies off, the number of people willing to pay extra just for ESPN is smaller than people who paid for it and never watched it. Basically daytime soap watching grandmas have been subsidizing sports for years, and ESPN will be the biggest loser when that isn’t the case.
Plus frankly without that subsidy I think sports fans will be shocked to see how much ESPN really costs. Will they be willing to pay $200+ a year to see college sports when most NFL games will come for free over an antenna? Maybe not. And the less that sign up the more expensive it is per sports fan.
They are still king today, and they will still be a player in five years, but they won’t be the only big player like in 2011.
quote:
Amazon and Netflix don't have live TV yet.
But not because of a technology problem.
They don’t have live tv because they don’t have advertisements like cable does, so the live aspect is worth less to them than to cable channels. That is why Hulu has it, Hulu has ads.
Eventually Amazon and Netflix will want live sports because it’s content with a guaranteed fan base, but for now they see it as overpriced because of its benefit of forcing people to watch commercials that they don’t need.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:30 pm to SanAntoneAg
quote:
quote:
Doing great since 2011 Realignment:
Mizzou
Debatable.
Ha...that big Conference payout says hello
Missouri has brought zilch to the SEC, except a suckass road trip.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:34 pm to CRDNLSCHMCPSN11
quote:
Who would the Pac 12 go after? Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.? BYU?
Yes and maybe more. Whoever Netflix/Amazon wants maybe based on where they don’t have enough subscribers at that point in time.
If they end up forcing a semi-split from the NCAA (aka a period of two national titles) maybe they grab some east coast programs to make this superconference seem more national. It could happen.
The next round of realignment will care less about regions and more about bundling brands for streaming content. Regions will still matter, but in regards to appealing to their audience and not because of the people technically within the state border.
This post was edited on 7/20/18 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 7/20/18 at 6:52 pm to cardboardboxer
Given the SEC's generally conservative nature, I expect them to hitch their wagon to ESPN/Disney. Disney is the big gorilla in the room and college football is too profitable to *not* find a way to monetize it, whether that's ESPN+ or (hopefully) a full-fledged standalone Disney streaming platform.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 7:08 pm to Muthsera
The mouse might stop coming back to the table, as they have professional sport obligations that come first.
I could see Fox Sports being a big player actually, as they can take the money from selling 20th Century Fox to Disney and use it to really acquire some content.
They already own half the B1G network, all the Big 12 Tier 2 rights, and some PAC rights. This puts them in a good position to increase their exposure in the sport, especially if the money Netflix/Amazon dangle out to conferences have too many strings attached.
It will be fun to find out. I hope I live to see it.
I could see Fox Sports being a big player actually, as they can take the money from selling 20th Century Fox to Disney and use it to really acquire some content.
They already own half the B1G network, all the Big 12 Tier 2 rights, and some PAC rights. This puts them in a good position to increase their exposure in the sport, especially if the money Netflix/Amazon dangle out to conferences have too many strings attached.
It will be fun to find out. I hope I live to see it.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 7:24 pm to Muthsera
As a CFB purist, I’m scared shitless about what those Silicon Valley nerds can do to the sport. Some change is okay, but according to the report on here months ago, whole conference formations, much less rivalries, can be eliminated.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 7:31 pm to OchoDedos
quote:
Missouri has brought zilch to the SEC, except a suckass road trip.
In 2011, the SEC had 5 Top-40 media markets. By adding Mizzou in 2012, they increased that number by 40%. Do you understand what that means in today's college sports landscape? $$$$$$$$$
New York (#1)
Los Angeles (#2)
Chicago (#3)
Philadelphia (#4)
Dallas-Fort Worth (#5)
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#6)
Washington, D.C. (Hagerstown) (#7)
Houston (#8)
Boston (Manchester) (#9)
Atlanta (#10)
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#11)
Phoenix (Prescott) (#12)
Detroit (#13)
Seattle-Tacoma (#14)
Minneapolis-St. Paul (#15)
Miami-Fort Lauderdale (#16)
Denver (#17)
Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (#18)
Cleveland-Akron (Canton) (#19)
Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (#20)
St. Louis (#21)
Charlotte (#22)
Pittsburgh (#23)
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) (#24)
Portland, OR (#25)
Baltimore (#26)
Indianapolis (#27)
San Diego (#28)
Nashville (#29)
Hartford & New Haven (#30)
San Antonio (#31)
Columbus, OH (#32)
Kansas City (#33)
Salt Lake City (#34)
Milwaukee (#35)
Cincinnati (#36)
Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville-Anderson (#37)
West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce (#38)
Austin (#39)
Las Vegas (#40)
Posted on 7/20/18 at 7:38 pm to KCM0Tiger
There's something wrong with this list. No way in hell Ole Miss is a top 40 program. And no one cares about South Carolina football.
Most likley to make the 'Big Dog' list, (according to Top Programs by Value - WSJ ):
133
COMMENTS
In order: Ohio State; Texas; Oklahoma; Alabama; Michigan; Notre Dame; Georgia; Tennessee; Auburn; Florida; Penn State; Texas A&M; Nebraska; South Carolina; Iowa; Arkansas; Wisconsin; Washington; Florida State; Oregon; Michigan State; Mississippi; Clemson; Southern California; Arizona State; UCLA.
Most likley to make the 'Big Dog' list, (according to Top Programs by Value - WSJ ):
133
COMMENTS
In order: Ohio State; Texas; Oklahoma; Alabama; Michigan; Notre Dame; Georgia; Tennessee; Auburn; Florida; Penn State; Texas A&M; Nebraska; South Carolina; Iowa; Arkansas; Wisconsin; Washington; Florida State; Oregon; Michigan State; Mississippi; Clemson; Southern California; Arizona State; UCLA.
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