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re: Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

Posted on 4/5/18 at 7:38 am to
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
36765 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 7:38 am to
quote:

Does Tesla have some great profit margin?

I think they lose money on every car right now.

Posted by mrgreenpants
paisaland
Member since Mar 2018
1421 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 9:16 am to
...hell, at this current pace it might get there by end of today.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 9:39 am to
quote:



I think they lose money on every car right now.


Doubtful on a marginal basis though. Once you strip out initial R&D + non production fixed costs, got to imagine there is some margin. Those costs Defrayed over 1mil cars, that marginal profit would become noticeable


My question is if it is just consistent margin with the industry, how inthe world are they valued like this?
Posted by FredsGotSlacks
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2008
815 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 9:46 am to
quote:

My question is if it is just consistent margin with the industry, how inthe world are they valued like this?

No it’s not consistent. The only other comparable product is the Bolt and they are not making money on it. This link is an opinion piece but breaks down why some think tesla has a massive competitive edge over new EV entries.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11191 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 10:12 am to
I've read it's in the 15-20% range. Can somebody verify that?
Posted by CM Tiger83
Lafayette, LA
Member since Sep 2011
738 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 10:17 am to
Looks like it will break 300 today, I got in at 267.
Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
66467 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Thompson manages $25 million


Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11191 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 2:11 pm to
Should ride up to $350ish again in a few months
Posted by CM Tiger83
Lafayette, LA
Member since Sep 2011
738 posts
Posted on 4/5/18 at 4:14 pm to
They just increased the amount of vin numbers registered which has people speculating that they are getting ready to increase production again.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 7:00 pm to
quote:

No it’s not consistent. The only other comparable product is the Bolt and they are not making money on it. This link is an opinion piece but breaks down why some think tesla has a massive competitive edge over new EV entries



I didn't mean comparable EVs but just car industry in general


Ford has an $8bil lower market cap but sells about 2.5mil cars per year


How TF is Tesla market cap $50bil when "big success" scenario is Tesla selling only 1mil cars in 2020-2021?
Posted by CM Tiger83
Lafayette, LA
Member since Sep 2011
738 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 7:35 pm to
Because they are over valued and because they aren’t just a car company. They are an energy storage company that makes cars.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 7:41 pm to
quote:


Because they are over valued and because they aren’t just a car company. They are an energy storage company that makes cars.


Considering 85% of their 2017 revenues were from automotive, they are a car company that dabbles in energy storage


I guess my pont is that their $50bil market cap is higher than priced for perfection, it is priced for impossible. Even if they were currently pumping out 1mil cars per year, it still would be a high growth target value
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11191 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 8:44 am to
Musk: "Positive cash flow in Q3 & Q4"

I feel more dug into the bear thesis at this point. He sounds desperate. I wonder what kind of non-GAAP adjustments he'll make to get to this positive number.
Posted by lsu xman
Member since Oct 2006
15606 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 3:29 pm to
Tesla reporting.. Up some after hours @ $305

2270/wk Model 3 production for April. Projection remain the same.

$2.46bil cash on hand at the end of the quarter. About 1bil cash burn in Q1.
This post was edited on 5/2/18 at 3:30 pm
Posted by lsu xman
Member since Oct 2006
15606 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

Tesla said it lost $709.6 million in the quarter, or $4.19 a share, compared with a loss of $330.3 million, or $2.04 a share, in the year-ago period.

Adjusted for one-time items, the company lost $3.35 a share, compared with $1.33 a share a year ago. Sales rose to $3.41 billion, compared with $2.70 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected an adjusted loss of $3.54 a share on sales of $3.28 billion for the quarter.

Tesla said it expects a GAAP profit and positive cash flow in the third and fourth quarters of 2018. It also reduced its capital expenditures projections for the year, to $3 billion from $3.4 billion.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50361 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Tesla said it expects a GAAP profit and positive cash flow in the third and fourth quarters of 2018.




quote:

It also reduced its capital expenditures projections for the year, to $3 billion from $3.4 billion.


That's about the only way they will get there, throttle back on their insane Capex spend.
Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167497 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:28 pm to
Elon apparently cut off someone asking questions on the earnings call and sent the price tumbling after hours


Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 6:33 pm to
quote:

Shares in Tesla took a nosedive in after-hours trading today as Elon Musk cut off analysts during a first-quarter earnings call.

He dismissed a question about gross margins from Bernstein senior analyst Toni Sacconaghi as "boring."

Instead, Musk and other executives answered multiple questions from a Tesla enthusiast and Youtuber named Gali Russell.

The stock drop may have become apparent around the time when Musk cut off analysts on the call. However, the company's first-quarter update has also stoked concerns over Tesla's cash burn and how, exactly, it will improve margins while ramping Model 3 production.

In answering questions from Gali Russell, Musk also revealed that Model Y production is not expected to begin for another two years, and that the vehicle won't be produced at Tesla's main, Fremont, Calif. factory.

Musk said, "We will not be starting production of the Model Y at the end of next year. It's probably closer to 24 months from now, 2020...

CNBC-Updated at 6:16 PM, CDT
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53177 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

He dismissed a question about gross margins from Bernstein senior analyst Toni Sacconaghi as "boring."


Ridiculous.
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24185 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 7:46 pm to
The twitter guest made the analyst look like a fool in the clip in that CNBC article. I know he is sunshine pumping but his answers were much more grounded in analysis than solely a talking point on cash.
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