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Message
re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:06 am to artompkins
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:06 am to artompkins
quote:
This looks like the most raggedy assed, discombobulated storm ever. moving this fast I see no way it really gets its act together.
Sadly, it doesn't take long to get organized... it looks better formed in every new frame:
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:09 am to Cosmo
quote:
At this point there is almost no way for this to be more than a cat 1
Jumping from a disorganized TS into major hurricane in less than 36 hours just isnt happening
that's not accurate at all. THIS STORM might not do that, but it's certainly possible. Wilma went from like Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 6 hours or something crazy like that.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:09 am to SECretariat
Models shifting back towards the east. Looks like I bought gas and water for nothing.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:09 am to rt3
quote:Thanks. I even googled "CAG hurricane" and got nothing.
I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:10 am to SECretariat
quote:
Sadly, it doesn't take long to get organized... it looks better formed in every new frame:
It does, and the current consensus seems to be little to no interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula, which would help things along the central Gulf coast.
It's still having hell in the NE quadrant, and until that gets more organized, it will be hindered.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:10 am to slackster
quote:
Gut feelings abound.
I watch the neighbor's cows in the field morning of.
They start acting weird, something bad is up.
Might seem silly. But those strong southern winds last Friday night in BR prompted me to buy a few extra 40 packs of water.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:11 am to The Boat
quote:
Models shifting back towards the east. Looks like I bought gas and water for nothing.
Pour it out then. At least you were prepared.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:12 am to slackster
quote:
This is worded a bit weird, but yes, a quicker storm gives it less time to get its act together. It doesn't really prevent strengthening on its own,
In this case, it might be moving fast enough to act as a limit on strengthening. Once Nate is really flying over the gulf, the east side will be pulling up a lot of heat with those strong steering currents helping out of the S and SE. The west side will have those steering winds working against it, and limiting the heat the west side can pick up. Making Nate spend energy to just get and stay somewhat symmetrical instead of having all quadrants supplying good heat flux.
I might be overselling just how much the wind differential on sides matters, but it makes sense to me it would have an impact in this case with a small circulation trying to organize for the first time.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:12 am to LSURussian
quote:
Thanks. I even googled "CAG hurricane" and got nothing.
that's my 1 tiny complaint with these threads sometimes... they use all this meteorology shorthands that most of us common folk don't understand
have to look at like 5 different sources to put it all together and make sense
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:13 am to slackster
I hate when people make statements like he made. It’s like they are so nervous they make outlandish remarks when things look slightly better. Things by no means look good for Louisiana, just better.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:15 am to rt3
quote:
I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua
Could be wrong though
Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:15 am to SECretariat
You can see the region starting to spin up...
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:17 am to SECretariat
if it misses the yucatan, we may get a hurricane earlier than predicted. The two gifs on this page show more spinning/tightening than we'd seen.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:17 am to The Boat
Thank goodness!! Wishcasters dreams are about to be ruined!! Hopefully it will be nothing more than a thunderstorm for our area
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:18 am to rds dc
quote:
All images are free to share publicly on social media, and on personal websites or blogs with moderation, with the stipulation that proper citation be given. Special requests may be directed to levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com.
I wonder if young Levi would consider the use of his images in these threads as "moderate?"
I think we steer more people to his site though, and he's a beast.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 11:19 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:19 am to slackster
quote:
I think we steer more people to his site though, and he's a beast.
Definitely
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:20 am to rds dc
quote:
Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.
I understand what you're saying completely... and I'm not against shorthand at all
just sometimes... you gotta do what we in the media call "re-establishing shots"... remind us what it is and why it's important... then go back to the shorthand for a while
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:20 am to iamAG
quote:
Things by no means look good for Louisiana, just better.
They look good for Baton Rouge which is all that really matters.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:25 am to Cosmo
Covington is nearly out the cone. i may not even tie up my travel trailer cover.
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