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Message
Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:06 am
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:06 am
LINK
I agree with some of his reasoning (I don't think oil will drop back to $25/barrel anytime soon) but I think he gets carried away with his optimism and ignores the motivation factor of Joe Consumer.
Unless a consumer is in the market for a new vehicle, they'll stick with what they have. And you also have the whole Used/Pre-Owned market. As long as gasoline stays below $3-$4/gallon the incentive for many buyers will be to stick with a fossil fuel vehicle.
There's also the whole issue about recharge time. People wanting to take road trips aren't going to just go 200-300 miles then call it a day while they wait for the car to charge (battery replacement stations could be viable, but that's getting into the weeds a bit much for now).
I agree with his tipping point (and have stated something similar on these forums for a while now) but I think he fails to take into account the used car market, especially as the prices on those drop to almost nothing as the new tech pushes the old tech out. At that point finding a year-old Lexus with 12k miles for $6k is still going to be a very attractive offer.
It took about 23 years for the Model T to replace the horse and buggy (depending on what you are looking at as start/finish points). Going from fossil fuel to electric isn't as dramatic a change as going from horse and buggy to a car so there's no real reason to expect the market to change that much in such a short amount of time.
But, like winter, it is coming.
quote:
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
I agree with some of his reasoning (I don't think oil will drop back to $25/barrel anytime soon) but I think he gets carried away with his optimism and ignores the motivation factor of Joe Consumer.
Unless a consumer is in the market for a new vehicle, they'll stick with what they have. And you also have the whole Used/Pre-Owned market. As long as gasoline stays below $3-$4/gallon the incentive for many buyers will be to stick with a fossil fuel vehicle.
There's also the whole issue about recharge time. People wanting to take road trips aren't going to just go 200-300 miles then call it a day while they wait for the car to charge (battery replacement stations could be viable, but that's getting into the weeds a bit much for now).
quote:
Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
quote:
The “tipping point” will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.
I agree with his tipping point (and have stated something similar on these forums for a while now) but I think he fails to take into account the used car market, especially as the prices on those drop to almost nothing as the new tech pushes the old tech out. At that point finding a year-old Lexus with 12k miles for $6k is still going to be a very attractive offer.
It took about 23 years for the Model T to replace the horse and buggy (depending on what you are looking at as start/finish points). Going from fossil fuel to electric isn't as dramatic a change as going from horse and buggy to a car so there's no real reason to expect the market to change that much in such a short amount of time.
But, like winter, it is coming.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:06 am to Bard
quote:
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
Are we fricked? Without any money, what will OPEC countries do next?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:08 am to Bard
quote:
It took about 23 years for the Model T to replace the horse and buggy (depending on what you are looking at as start/finish points). Going from fossil fuel to electric isn't as dramatic a change as going from horse and buggy to a car so there's no real reason to expect the market to change that much in such a short amount of time.
Exactly, but its worth mentioning electric vehicles are not void of any carbon footprint...they barely emit less carbon emissions over the vehicle's lifespan than a fossil fueled vehicle.
I don't see this happening in the next 50 years. Maybe after 50 years.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:09 am to Bard
quote:Tesla has charging speeds up to 20 minutes for 0-50%. I used to think battery replacement was the way to go but now I'm guessing iterative improvements on battery tech will get there first.
There's also the whole issue about recharge time. People wanting to take road trips aren't going to just go 200-300 miles then call it a day while they wait for the car to charge (battery replacement stations could be viable, but that's getting into the weeds a bit much for now).
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:10 am to Bard
I can't wait til all you little Eugenes get out there with your electric cars
Ima roll coal on your bitchasses
Ima roll coal on your bitchasses
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:10 am to Bard
quote:
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba.
Zero chance this happens within the next 8 or 18 years.........
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:12 am to Bard
quote:
The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification,
And how is the vast majority of electricity produced?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:12 am to Bard
quote:
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:13 am to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:There's no one sector with a majority but natural gas is the biggest plurality
And how is the vast majority of electricity produced?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:14 am to Bard
We are living in the future
I tell ya how I know
I read it in the paper
15 years ago
We're all driving rocket ships
and talking with our minds
and wearing turquoise jewelry
and standing in soup lines
I tell ya how I know
I read it in the paper
15 years ago
We're all driving rocket ships
and talking with our minds
and wearing turquoise jewelry
and standing in soup lines
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:14 am to Iosh
quote:
There's no one sector with a majority but natural gas is the biggest plurality
Would it be safe to say that fossil fuels play a significant role?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:15 am to Bard
quote:
Tony Seba
Not an economist. A self-described "thought leader" and entrepreneur. Is the rest of the article any better?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:16 am to Bard
quote:
Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
Electric cars simply take fossil fuel consumption out of the fuel tank and shifts it to electricity producers (coal plants).
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:16 am to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:Well yeah but natural gas is a lot cleaner than coal (and also a lot cleaner than car exhaust)
Would it be safe to say that fossil fuels play a significant role?
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:17 am to Bard
quote:
Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years
At him, not at you.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:21 am to Iosh
quote:
Tesla has charging speeds up to 20 minutes for 0-50%.
Out of curiosity....would another 20 minutes charge it up completely, or does the charging process slow down? Or do you know? I think it would be a good thing if we could go electric, but with the much higher cost of electric vehicles, I just don't see it happening for awhile, much less in the next 8 years.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:25 am to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
And how is the vast majority of electricity produced?
Gotta admit, I didn't see that coming.
44.9% coal, 23.4% Natural gas and 20.3% Nuclear.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:25 am to Iosh
So really there is no net benefit. If you do away with cars that run on fossil fuels and switch to electric, that leads to a greater demand for electricity. It would take a massive increase in electricity production to power our daily commuting needs. That demand for fossil fuels would still exist because they would be need it in great quantities to generate electricity.
Posted on 5/17/17 at 11:27 am to Eli Goldfinger
Do you live in India? Cause in the U.S., 70% electricity is generated from a source other than coal.
This post was edited on 5/18/17 at 10:13 am
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