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LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:00 pm
As of today, three SEC schools are ranked in the Final Four slots to make the CFB Playoffs. (Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss) Florida State hasn't been dominate all season. In fact, they should have loss twice already. Right Irish?
Fun look at the scenarios that could play out in the following weeks. (Based on CFB Rankings)
First, the SEC West
#1 Mississippi State (7-0, 4-0)
11/1 - vs. Arkansas - L
11/8 - vs. Tenn. Martin - W
11/15 - @ Alabama - L
11/22 - vs. Vanderbilt - W
11/29 - @ Ole Miss - L
Arkansas isn't as bad as the record shows. They have lost their last three SEC games by they were all close. They lost to Alabama by 1, Georgia by 7 (Trailed 38-6 at the half), and the Aggies in OT (They were ranked #6 at the time). Alabama just won't lose to both teams from Mississippi. It just won't happen. Ole Miss needs the win to stay alive. Their defense is legit and by then, State will be done anyways.
#3 Auburn (6-1, 3-1)
11/1 - @ Ole Miss - W
11/8 - vs. Texas A&M - L
11/15 - @ Georgia - L
11/22 - vs. Samford - W
11/29 - @ Alabama - W
Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get. Also, the Aggies will end up playing like they were three weeks ago and score 50+ on Auburn in a shootout that may go extra time.
#4 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - vs. Auburn - L
11/8 - vs. Presbyterian - W
11/15 - BYE
11/22 - @ Arkansas - L
11/29 - vs. Mississippi State - W
Arkansas just needs to show up. Auburn too. Too much offense and running the ball just might shut down the defense that the rest of the nation was raving about. LSU showed them all that if you can run against Ole Miss, you can win. Remember, LSU left 10 points on the field, could have changed the entire game.
#6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - BYE
11/8 - @ LSU - L
11/15 - vs. Mississippi State - W
11/22 - vs. Western Carolina - W
11/29 - vs. Auburn - L
Alabama needs to be stopped by us first, AU second. Things can happen quickly for LSU if they beat Alabama. They can happen if quicker if they win easily and with an exclamation point.
#19 LSU (7-2, 3-2)
11/1 - BYE
11/8 - vs. Alabama - W
11/15 - @ Arkansas - W
11/22 - BYE
11/27 - @ Texas A&M - W
LSU can't lose another game. Plain and simple.
Final Projected SEC West Standings (Based on the above layout)
LSU - 6-2
Ole Miss - 6-2
Alabama - 5-3
Mississippi State - 5-3
Auburn - 5-3
Texas A&M - 4-4 or 3-5 (Doesn't matter at this point)
Arkansas - 2-6
Although we don't control our destiny, it isn't as far fetched as once believed anymore. LSU can make the CFB playoffs and win the SEC too.
Other Ranked Teams to watch
#2 Florida State (7-0, 4-0) - Could end up dropping their next game @ Louisville and either Miami or Florida.
#5 Oregon (7-1, 4-1) - Stanford, Utah, or Oregon State. At least one of these is going to be a loss
#7 TCU (6-1, 3-1) - @ WVU, vs. Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Texas, vs. Iowa State - No possible way TCU remains this hot after the toughest part of their schedule just ahead of them. They could lose the next two games very easily.
#8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) - They will lose to Ohio State, I promise you that.
#9 Kansas State (6-1, 4-0) - Three road games against ranked opponents including @ Baylor to end the season.
#10 Notre Dame (6-1) - Is there a ND clause that says they are allowed in the Playoffs if they play at least two ranked teams? Either way, Arizona State and Louisville stand in there way. Otherwise, be worried about were they stand right now.
#11 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) - Regardless of ranking, still have to play in the SEC Championship.
#12 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) - @ UCLA and @ Utah should be two losses so not really worried about them.
#13 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) - Oklahoma or K-State, pick the one you want because they will not beat them both.
#14 Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) - Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona... Hmmm
#15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) - @ Wisconsin, only chance LSU has at them going to two losses
#16 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) - Will beat Michigan State but not Michigan
#17 Utah (6-1, 3-1) - Too many ranked games ahead. Might get ugly fast.
#18 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2) - 5 games left, at least one of them will go bad, probably two
Fun look at the scenarios that could play out in the following weeks. (Based on CFB Rankings)
First, the SEC West
#1 Mississippi State (7-0, 4-0)
11/1 - vs. Arkansas - L
11/8 - vs. Tenn. Martin - W
11/15 - @ Alabama - L
11/22 - vs. Vanderbilt - W
11/29 - @ Ole Miss - L
Arkansas isn't as bad as the record shows. They have lost their last three SEC games by they were all close. They lost to Alabama by 1, Georgia by 7 (Trailed 38-6 at the half), and the Aggies in OT (They were ranked #6 at the time). Alabama just won't lose to both teams from Mississippi. It just won't happen. Ole Miss needs the win to stay alive. Their defense is legit and by then, State will be done anyways.
#3 Auburn (6-1, 3-1)
11/1 - @ Ole Miss - W
11/8 - vs. Texas A&M - L
11/15 - @ Georgia - L
11/22 - vs. Samford - W
11/29 - @ Alabama - W
Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get. Also, the Aggies will end up playing like they were three weeks ago and score 50+ on Auburn in a shootout that may go extra time.
#4 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - vs. Auburn - L
11/8 - vs. Presbyterian - W
11/15 - BYE
11/22 - @ Arkansas - L
11/29 - vs. Mississippi State - W
Arkansas just needs to show up. Auburn too. Too much offense and running the ball just might shut down the defense that the rest of the nation was raving about. LSU showed them all that if you can run against Ole Miss, you can win. Remember, LSU left 10 points on the field, could have changed the entire game.
#6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - BYE
11/8 - @ LSU - L
11/15 - vs. Mississippi State - W
11/22 - vs. Western Carolina - W
11/29 - vs. Auburn - L
Alabama needs to be stopped by us first, AU second. Things can happen quickly for LSU if they beat Alabama. They can happen if quicker if they win easily and with an exclamation point.
#19 LSU (7-2, 3-2)
11/1 - BYE
11/8 - vs. Alabama - W
11/15 - @ Arkansas - W
11/22 - BYE
11/27 - @ Texas A&M - W
LSU can't lose another game. Plain and simple.
Final Projected SEC West Standings (Based on the above layout)
LSU - 6-2
Ole Miss - 6-2
Alabama - 5-3
Mississippi State - 5-3
Auburn - 5-3
Texas A&M - 4-4 or 3-5 (Doesn't matter at this point)
Arkansas - 2-6
Although we don't control our destiny, it isn't as far fetched as once believed anymore. LSU can make the CFB playoffs and win the SEC too.
Other Ranked Teams to watch
#2 Florida State (7-0, 4-0) - Could end up dropping their next game @ Louisville and either Miami or Florida.
#5 Oregon (7-1, 4-1) - Stanford, Utah, or Oregon State. At least one of these is going to be a loss
#7 TCU (6-1, 3-1) - @ WVU, vs. Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Texas, vs. Iowa State - No possible way TCU remains this hot after the toughest part of their schedule just ahead of them. They could lose the next two games very easily.
#8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) - They will lose to Ohio State, I promise you that.
#9 Kansas State (6-1, 4-0) - Three road games against ranked opponents including @ Baylor to end the season.
#10 Notre Dame (6-1) - Is there a ND clause that says they are allowed in the Playoffs if they play at least two ranked teams? Either way, Arizona State and Louisville stand in there way. Otherwise, be worried about were they stand right now.
#11 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) - Regardless of ranking, still have to play in the SEC Championship.
#12 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) - @ UCLA and @ Utah should be two losses so not really worried about them.
#13 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) - Oklahoma or K-State, pick the one you want because they will not beat them both.
#14 Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) - Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona... Hmmm
#15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) - @ Wisconsin, only chance LSU has at them going to two losses
#16 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) - Will beat Michigan State but not Michigan
#17 Utah (6-1, 3-1) - Too many ranked games ahead. Might get ugly fast.
#18 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2) - 5 games left, at least one of them will go bad, probably two
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:03 pm to tadelatt
I think the 5 way tie in the SEC West actually has a slight chance of happening.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-0 in SEC) beats Arkansas on Saturday, loses at Alabama on Nov. 15, beats Vanderbilt on Nov. 22 and loses at Ole Miss on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
AUBURN (3-1 in SEC) wins at Ole Miss on Saturday, beats Texas A&M on Nov. 8, wins at Georgia on Nov. 15 and loses at Alabama on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
OLE MISS (4-1 in SEC) loses to Auburn on Saturday, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 22 and beats Mississippi State on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
ALABAMA (4-1 in SEC) loses at LSU on Nov. 8, beats Mississippi State on Nov. 15 and beats Auburn on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
LSU (now 3-2 in SEC) beats Alabama on Nov. 8, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 15 and wins at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night. … 6-2.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-0 in SEC) beats Arkansas on Saturday, loses at Alabama on Nov. 15, beats Vanderbilt on Nov. 22 and loses at Ole Miss on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
AUBURN (3-1 in SEC) wins at Ole Miss on Saturday, beats Texas A&M on Nov. 8, wins at Georgia on Nov. 15 and loses at Alabama on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
OLE MISS (4-1 in SEC) loses to Auburn on Saturday, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 22 and beats Mississippi State on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
ALABAMA (4-1 in SEC) loses at LSU on Nov. 8, beats Mississippi State on Nov. 15 and beats Auburn on Nov. 29. … 6-2.
LSU (now 3-2 in SEC) beats Alabama on Nov. 8, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 15 and wins at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night. … 6-2.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:06 pm to tadelatt
If there are a lot of two loss teams, this whole committee thing will turn into a shite show with the quickness.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:23 pm to tadelatt
quote:
#3 Auburn (6-1, 3-1)
11/1 - @ Ole Miss - W
11/8 - vs. Texas A&M - L
11/15 - @ Georgia - L
11/22 - vs. Samford - W
11/29 - @ Alabama - W
Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get. Also, the Aggies will end up playing like they were three weeks ago and score 50+ on Auburn in a shootout that may go extra time.
#4 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - vs. Auburn - L
11/8 - vs. Presbyterian - W
11/15 - BYE
11/22 - @ Arkansas - L
11/29 - vs. Mississippi State - W
Arkansas just needs to show up. Auburn too. Too much offense and running the ball just might shut down the defense that the rest of the nation was raving about. LSU showed them all that if you can run against Ole Miss, you can win. Remember, LSU left 10 points on the field, could have changed the entire game.
#6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)
11/1 - BYE
11/8 - @ LSU - L
11/15 - vs. Mississippi State - W
11/22 - vs. Western Carolina - W
11/29 - vs. Auburn - L
Are you on crack?
Alabama can win out if LSU beats them.
And Ole Miss only needs to lose to Auburn.
LSU would hold the tiebreak over both.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:34 pm to tadelatt
I enjoyed reading this.
Then LMAO when you said Ohio St would lose to Michigan.
I like your attitude tho!!![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Then LMAO when you said Ohio St would lose to Michigan.
I like your attitude tho!!
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:35 pm to tadelatt
Didn't read any of this.
The only way LSU can make the playoff is if they win the conference.
The only way LSU can make the playoff is if they win the conference.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:36 pm to tadelatt
I looked up the word Optimist in a thesaurus and it had tadelatt next to it ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:44 pm to tadelatt
quote:
Florida State hasn't been dominate all season.
dominant
A team who dominates is said to be a dominant team.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:25 am to tadelatt
quote:
LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)
quote:Thanks, tadelatt!
tadelatt
I've copied this as my cheatsheet for the rest of the season. Because of the baby Jesus, I always have hope!
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconjump1.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconjump2.gif)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 6:29 am to tadelatt
Its so awesome that three weeks ago this board was struggling to find 6 total wins for this team, now were talking playoffs.
In all seriousness, if we were to win out and somehow manage to have all the chips fall correctly, then it would be a Les-mas Miracle of epic proportions. That being said, I don't see any honest way how that happens.
More importantly though, I am extremely encouraged by the improvement shown by a team full of underclassmen. Dude, we are going to be scary good for the next few years. PANTS ON/[OFF]
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
In all seriousness, if we were to win out and somehow manage to have all the chips fall correctly, then it would be a Les-mas Miracle of epic proportions. That being said, I don't see any honest way how that happens.
More importantly though, I am extremely encouraged by the improvement shown by a team full of underclassmen. Dude, we are going to be scary good for the next few years. PANTS ON/[OFF]
Posted on 10/29/14 at 8:42 am to tadelatt
I'm not sure LSU even needs to win the West to make the top 4. Look at the games remaining among teams currently ranked higher than LSU:
Okla-Baylor
Utah-ASU
Utah-Oregon
Utah-Ariz
Ohio St-Mich St
ASU-ND
ASU-Ariz
Baylor-KSU
UGA-Aub
KSU-TCU
Bama-MSU
Bama-Aub
Ole Miss-Aub
Ole Miss-MSU
And that doesn't even account for teams ranked below LSU upsetting some of the ones above LSU (which will inevitably happen).
Okla-Baylor
Utah-ASU
Utah-Oregon
Utah-Ariz
Ohio St-Mich St
ASU-ND
ASU-Ariz
Baylor-KSU
UGA-Aub
KSU-TCU
Bama-MSU
Bama-Aub
Ole Miss-Aub
Ole Miss-MSU
And that doesn't even account for teams ranked below LSU upsetting some of the ones above LSU (which will inevitably happen).
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 8:44 am
Posted on 10/29/14 at 9:39 am to tadelatt
quote:
Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get.
quote:
Alabama needs to be stopped by us first, AU second.
Why would we need Auburn to beat Alabama? It's just the opposite. The only realistic way for LSU to win the west requires that Alabama (and someone else) beat Auburn, and the only realistic way LSU gets into the playoff is to win the west and the SECCG.
quote:
#2 Florida State (7-0, 4-0) - Could end up dropping their next game @ Louisville and either Miami or Florida.
Louisville is a longshot, and the other two have zero chance.
quote:
#8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) - They will lose to Ohio State, I promise you that.
I don't know where you're getting that from. Michigan State has a defense, Ohio State doesn't. There's every indication that this year's game will be just like last year's Big Ten championship game.
quote:
#15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) - @ Wisconsin, only chance LSU has at them going to two losses
The Big Ten championship game against either Michigan State or Ohio State has a much better chance than the Wisconsin game of giving Nebraska another loss.
quote:
#16 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) - Will beat Michigan State but not Michigan
Why in the world would they not beat Michigan? Michigan is horrible. I get the rivalry game thing, but that hasn't helped Michigan much in recent years. Ohio State will beat Michigan.
quote:
#12 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) - @ UCLA and @ Utah should be two losses so not really worried about them.
#13 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) - Oklahoma or K-State, pick the one you want because they will not beat them both.
#14 Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) - Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona... Hmmm
Wow, there are a lot of assumptions in there, especially when you also throw this in...
quote:
#17 Utah (6-1, 3-1) - Too many ranked games ahead. Might get ugly fast.
#18 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2) - 5 games left, at least one of them will go bad, probably two
In all honesty, I think the only chance we have is to win the SEC West in a tiebreaker and beat Georgia in the SECCG. Do that, and I think we're in regardless of what others do. Anything short of that, and we're out.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 9:42 am to tadelatt
quote:
Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row?
You must be new...
Posted on 10/29/14 at 11:13 am to tadelatt
LSU must win out
Mississippi State has to lose 3. If Arky pulls the upset this weekend, then I'll start getting excited. They play @ Bama and @ Ole Miss.
Auburn needs to beat Ole Miss this weekend, then lose @ Georgia and @ Bama.
Standings would then be:
LSU 6-2 (holds tie breaker over Ole Miss & Bama)
Ole Miss 6-2
Alabama 6-2
Mississippi State 5-3
Auburn 5-3
A&M (Who Cares)
Arkansas (Who Cares)
Tiger Fans...this is absolutely possible. Teams we need to lose have tough road games coming up. LSU needs to win out, and then we'll have to be Roll Tide fans moving forward
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Mississippi State has to lose 3. If Arky pulls the upset this weekend, then I'll start getting excited. They play @ Bama and @ Ole Miss.
Auburn needs to beat Ole Miss this weekend, then lose @ Georgia and @ Bama.
Standings would then be:
LSU 6-2 (holds tie breaker over Ole Miss & Bama)
Ole Miss 6-2
Alabama 6-2
Mississippi State 5-3
Auburn 5-3
A&M (Who Cares)
Arkansas (Who Cares)
Tiger Fans...this is absolutely possible. Teams we need to lose have tough road games coming up. LSU needs to win out, and then we'll have to be Roll Tide fans moving forward
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:52 pm to tadelatt
Arkansas hasn't won a SEC game in 2 years and they going to beat the #1 & #4 teams in te country?
Posted on 10/31/14 at 12:04 pm to tadelatt
Miss Tate losing to Arky, eh? Well, I suppose that stranger things have happened for sure.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Posted on 10/31/14 at 5:34 pm to tadelatt
I love doing the hypotheticals, but I'm not getting excited about anything until we beat Bama.
Unless there is a total shitting of the bed, our only hope of getting in the playoffs is to win the SEC.
Unless there is a total shitting of the bed, our only hope of getting in the playoffs is to win the SEC.
This post was edited on 11/1/14 at 6:45 am
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