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SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:19 pm
quote:
We track what we call Correlation to Victory each week and each season at CHFF Insider. And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games. And they win more often as the games get bigger and more important.
Teams with a higher passer rating:
• went 209-46 (.820) in 2012
• are an incredible 47-5 (.904) since Week 15
• went 4-0 (1.000) in the wild-card round
That brings us back to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. The 49ers have continued to win: they went 6-2-1 with Smith the starter; 5-2 with Kaepernick, highlighted by a 41-34 victory at New England. Conveniently, the 24-24 tie against the Rams was the game in which Smith suffered his concussion, opening the door for Kaepernick to take over the No. 1 job.
But the team's passing efficiency has in fact taken a step backward since Smith was benched.
• Smith: 70.2 percent, 8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating
• Kaepernick: 62.4 percent, 8.3 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT, 98.3 rating
LINK
This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 10:50 pm
12
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:21 pm to Bench McElroy
:kige:
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:23 pm to Bench McElroy
So how do Kaepernick's numers compare to Smith's second year in the league? It's simple really... you play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract. It doesn't hurt that Kaepernick's QBR is one of the top in the league in his 7 starts.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:25 pm to Bench McElroy
I think it probably will hurt them this year. Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 10:43 pm to Bench McElroy
Can you not paste so much of that article? 2-3 paragraphs max...thanks
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:50 am to Bench McElroy
Calling Cold Hard Football Facts statistical analysis is quite a reach. I'll leave it at for now.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 8:08 am to Bench McElroy
Interesting that the author of the article limited the higher passer rating comparison to only this season. He had the data to go back a few years and expand the sample size for the data to be more meaningful - but didn't.
Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.
I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.
He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.
Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.
I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.
He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.
Posted on 1/12/13 at 10:21 pm to Bench McElroy
Posted on 1/30/13 at 8:13 am to Bench McElroy
I wonder if this guy will still claim he was right if they lose the Superbowl.
Posted on 1/30/13 at 10:58 am to Bench McElroy
SI is looking pretty foolish right about now.
Posted on 1/30/13 at 11:04 pm to Bench McElroy
Posted on 1/31/13 at 7:33 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
1. It hasn't shown that yet. And ya know, they're 1 game away from a title lol.
2. That doesn't factor in the running ability of the 2 QBs at all. Show me the study where 1 QB has a slightly higher QB rating with negligible rushing yards compared to the QB with slightly lower QB rating with great rushing stats, then we have a legit comparison.
Posted on 1/31/13 at 7:43 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games
Also, I don't know much of anything about ESPN's QBR, but I wonder what the win% is on a QB with a higher QBR, as I believe Kaepernick has the edge there.
It seems like we're posting data and facts, but not really telling the entire story.
This post was edited on 1/31/13 at 7:46 am
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