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SpaceX IPO:$1.5T est valuation
Posted on 2/3/26 at 6:46 am
Posted on 2/3/26 at 6:46 am
At this valuation, explain how retail makes any money?
One would have to believe that the market cap would get to $10-50T in order to experience exponential growth in an investment.
One would have to believe that the market cap would get to $10-50T in order to experience exponential growth in an investment.
7
Posted on 2/3/26 at 7:08 am to Covingtontiger77
Buckle up, this is going to be a he’ll of a ride.
I’ll likely buy a share. Singular.
I’ll likely buy a share. Singular.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 7:27 am to Covingtontiger77
Retail makes money in the very long term and in the very short term. The stock will squeeze 100% during lockup like many hyped IPOs. But after lockup all the employees and investors are cashing out and will dump the stock and keep it down for years. Then in the very long term, this will become a winner if they’re able to stay ahead of competition. It looks likely to stay ahead based on technology MOAT but maybe they take the foot off the gas when Elon hits $1T
If SpaceX does become the main service provider for Mars missions/life/etc as well as main service provider for space elevator elsewhere, then this does become a 25T+ company. At that point, launches and successful cargo missions become completely normal and routine and the margins become insane due to MOAT, capital requirements, etc
If SpaceX does become the main service provider for Mars missions/life/etc as well as main service provider for space elevator elsewhere, then this does become a 25T+ company. At that point, launches and successful cargo missions become completely normal and routine and the margins become insane due to MOAT, capital requirements, etc
This post was edited on 2/3/26 at 7:33 am
Posted on 2/3/26 at 7:52 am to Covingtontiger77
I read this morning that this company will try to put data centers in space to use solar power for energy and no need for cooling. But nobody knows the logistics of the cost benefit of this yet.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 9:06 am to Upperdecker
Pretty high chance it will merge with Tesla before the year is out.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 10:05 am to Covingtontiger77
If the company just kept doing exactly what it does now and nothing else the value it provides is immense. Affordable internet around the world without needing to build/maintain piles of infrastructure like fiber optics or towers? Game changing.
It’s comparable to someone making hover cars widespread and thus crushing the upkeep/maintenance of roads.
Now do I think they’ll have relatively no competition long-term? No. The margins are too huge. We’ve already heard of the Bezos rockets and whatnot, but eventually someone in Japan, China, etc. is going to do this, as well. How long that takes is up for debate, though. It could take them a decade or more.
On the flip side I also don’t expect SpaceX to rest on its laurels, either. I doubt anything else they do will be as revolutionary, but it doesn’t need to be to stay in the pole position.
This is like when Apple came out with the iPhone. It will be improved and reiterated on, but a market leader like this can coast on one amazing idea for a long time.
It’s comparable to someone making hover cars widespread and thus crushing the upkeep/maintenance of roads.
Now do I think they’ll have relatively no competition long-term? No. The margins are too huge. We’ve already heard of the Bezos rockets and whatnot, but eventually someone in Japan, China, etc. is going to do this, as well. How long that takes is up for debate, though. It could take them a decade or more.
On the flip side I also don’t expect SpaceX to rest on its laurels, either. I doubt anything else they do will be as revolutionary, but it doesn’t need to be to stay in the pole position.
This is like when Apple came out with the iPhone. It will be improved and reiterated on, but a market leader like this can coast on one amazing idea for a long time.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 10:33 am to Covingtontiger77
It's being merged with xAI which is supposedly burning $1B cash per month. Seems extremely risky to hitch it to what is arguably his most successful company.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 2/3/26 at 10:59 am to Brummy
SpaceX makes almost $1B a month in profit. That number will ratchet up as Starlink continues to build out its constellation.
xAI has over $20B in the bank.
The IPO will raise another $30-50B.
They will be just fine.
xAI has over $20B in the bank.
The IPO will raise another $30-50B.
They will be just fine.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 11:52 am to Decisions
Data Centers in space will definitely be revolutionary. I think you guys may be missing the forest for the trees here. This will be huge.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 11:59 am to Hitman67
quote:
Data Centers in space will definitely be revolutionary. I think you guys may be missing the forest for the trees here. This will be huge.
Self driving cars
hyperloop
semi's
boring company
solar roofs
bricks from the boring company
robots
4680 battery cells
starship going to mars
All of these were "revolutionary" to people like you.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 1:31 pm to Hitman67
quote:
Pretty high chance it will merge with Tesla before the year is out.
I’ve heard the rumors but don’t think it’s incredibly likely
Posted on 2/3/26 at 2:07 pm to Covingtontiger77
Cost per Launch
Artemis:
SLS: ~$2–4 billion (very high due to low flight rate & expendable nature)
SpaceX Starship:
Target: <$10–100 million (aspirational; depends on reuse success)
Artemis:
SLS: ~$2–4 billion (very high due to low flight rate & expendable nature)
SpaceX Starship:
Target: <$10–100 million (aspirational; depends on reuse success)
Posted on 2/3/26 at 6:12 pm to Hitman67
quote:
Data Centers in space will definitely be revolutionary. I think you guys may be missing the forest for the trees here. This will be huge.
Lol.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 6:19 pm to Hitman67
quote:
Pretty high chance it will merge with Tesla before the year is out.
Would give him a nice bump towards reaching his big pay package.
Posted on 2/3/26 at 7:17 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
quote:Pretty high chance it will merge with Tesla before the year is out. I’ve heard the rumors but don’t think it’s incredibly likely
Yeah, that doesn’t make any sense at all. That IPO will exceed Tesla’s market cap.
It would be pretty funny to see elon break the news to the SpaceX investors. I have some good news, and some bad news…which do you want first?
Posted on 2/3/26 at 7:52 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
If SpaceX does become the main service provider for Mars missions/life/etc as well as main service provider for space elevator elsewhere, then this does become a 25T+ company. At that point, launches and successful cargo missions become completely normal and routine and the margins become insane due to MOAT, capital requirements, etc
Have you considered the value of mining asteroids and meteors from space? And moving all manufacturing to space?
Posted on 2/4/26 at 8:26 am to Brummy
quote:
It's being merged with xAI which is supposedly burning $1B cash per month. Seems extremely risky to hitch it to what is arguably his most successful company.
Robbing Peter to pay Paul? I’d really like to understand these flows better.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 10:19 am to Covingtontiger77
Let it open, wait for the crash, invest when it's low, and watch it grow
Simple.
Simple.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 12:07 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Have you considered the value of mining asteroids and meteors from space?
Yea the value is negative a few hundred trillion.
Posted on 2/5/26 at 12:11 pm to Decatur
quote:
Robbing Peter to pay Paul? I’d really like to understand these flows better.
Hell, I'm not even gonna try.
I took the opportunity to purchase close to 1000 shares of xAI barely over a year ago, and with the merger at 1:7, now hold roughly 135 shares of Space X. During that time, xAI bought X, so it's obvious Musk would probably prefer to somehow incorporate Tesla into this eventually.
My advisor is saying to sell the almost double profit prior to IPO, but also added that a Tesla merger is not likely imminent, because Musk doesn't have the control there like he does with these other ventures.
I will probably heed his advice.
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