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Saints jump in playoffs probability % with today's win against the Bucs

Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:25 pm
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29034 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:25 pm
Our odds to make the playoffs went from 0.0% to 0.4% with todays win if we round up. Our implied probability 100 divided (25,000 + 100) = 100 divided by 25,100 = .398% (rounded it up to .4%. We jumped 4 tenths of one percent of making the playoffs with this enormous win today.

In other words 1 in 250 chances the Saints will make the Playoffs and those are odds I can live with the way this Saints squad is playing.
Posted by In The Know
City of St George, La
Member since Jan 2005
6369 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:26 pm to
Don’t matter. Shough gives people a reason to hope for the future.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29034 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:27 pm to
Rattler screwed us this year. Shough would have dramatically increased our playoff percentage odds.
Posted by Swagga
504
Member since Dec 2009
18807 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:28 pm to
We aren’t making the playoffs but we’re competing for games and Shough is giving us life.


I feel much more optimistic than I did watching the shite show last year.
Posted by Rds21275
Member since Sep 2024
218 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:28 pm to
Apparently somebody's algorithm needs some review or debugging.

ESPN had us mathematically eliminated last week, even if we divide by zero, use imaginary numbers, or whatever other glitchy thing that was.
Posted by msstate7
Member since Oct 2014
12510 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:28 pm to
Thought they were eliminated
Posted by bigbonvi
Member since Apr 2015
123 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:29 pm to
What’s more important to you? Getting a higher pick, knowing that our roster needs upgrades in a major way, or better play down the stretch knowing that roster change will happen no matter what? I for one, enjoy watching this team seeing potential. So for me, I want to win, even though it means a lower draft pick. Good win today.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43036 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:30 pm to
quote:


Rattler screwed us this year. Shough would have dramatically increased our playoff percentage odds.


There was a decent contingent here saying this would happen before the season started.
Posted by VA LSU fan
Virginia
Member since Dec 2007
8644 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:30 pm to
We are eliminated.

Only path prior to last week was winning the division at 8-9
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29034 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:30 pm to
quote:


Thought they were eliminated


They still have .4 of 1% chance of making the playoffs so we are not officially eliminated yet. We still have a chance even Archie Manning said there is still hope this afternoon.
Posted by bstaceyau19
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2022
1059 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

They still have .4 of 1% chance of making the playoffs so we are not officially eliminated yet. We still have a chance even Archie Manning said there is still hope this afternoon.


ESPN: NFL Standings.

Sorry, dude. They were out last week.
Posted by stelly1025
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
9900 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:53 pm to
We are eliminated.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
79373 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Rattler screwed us this year. Shough would have dramatically increased our playoff percentage odds.


Shough might not have been ready for prime time yet.
Posted by BowDownToLSU
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
21193 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 3:58 pm to
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
7503 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 4:14 pm to
Saints were eliminated last week. Try again.
Posted by Bayou
Boudin, LA
Member since Feb 2005
41666 posts
Posted on 12/7/25 at 6:31 pm to
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29034 posts
Posted on 12/26/25 at 1:14 pm to
Grok says Saints are still in the playoff hunt. Here's a comprehensive list, from semi-plausible to speculative possibilities:

1. Mass Disqualifications of Teams: If 2-3 NFC teams above them (e.g., Panthers, Buccaneers, Vikings) get disqualified for major violations—like a league-wide PED scandal, salary cap fraud, or revived BountyGate-level bounties—their seasons could be voided. The NFL might then shrink the playoff field or invite the next-best eligible teams (including the Saints at 6-11) to fill spots. If gruesome: This could stem from investigations revealing criminal activity, leading to arrests or team shutdowns.

2. Widespread Forfeits Adjusting Records: If multiple teams forfeit remaining games (or past ones are retroactively forfeited) due to strikes, ownership disputes, or scandals, it could reduce their win totals. For example, if the Panthers and Bucs forfeit their last two (dropping to 8-9 but with forfeits counting as losses beyond that), and wildcard teams like the Packers forfeit enough to fall to 8-9 or worse, the Saints could tie or pass via adjusted tiebreakers. Gruesome twist: A team-wide illness outbreak (e.g., a virulent flu or food poisoning epidemic) forces forfeits, or worse, player fatalities from accidents/injuries lead to incomplete seasons and record recalculations.

3. League Rule Changes or Expansion: The NFL commissioner could unilaterally expand the playoffs to 8-10 teams per conference mid-season (e.g., due to fan pressure or a lockout resolution), opening spots for sub-.500 teams like the Saints. Outlandish: A court ruling forces this after lawsuits over "unfair" eliminations. Gruesome: If a terrorist attack or natural disaster (e.g., hurricane hitting multiple stadiums) disrupts the season, the league shortens it and admits all remaining viable teams, including New Orleans.

4. Catastrophic Events Impacting Rivals: A massive disaster—earthquake in California affecting the 49ers/Rams, or a plane crash involving multiple NFC teams—could lead to suspended seasons for those squads, with the NFL awarding playoff berths to survivors like the Saints by default. Even more gruesome: Widespread violence, such as fan riots or targeted attacks on players/coaches, causing teams to withdraw or be banned, thinning the field enough for 6-11 to qualify.

5. Supernatural or Apocalyptic Scenarios: Aliens invade and abduct key players from contending teams, forcing forfeits. Or a zombie apocalypse wipes out rosters league-wide except in Louisiana (Who Dat resilience?). Time travel alters past game outcomes, retroactively giving the Saints wins.
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
7503 posts
Posted on 12/27/25 at 12:30 pm to
Eliminated means eliminated, no matter what happens.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29034 posts
Posted on 12/27/25 at 1:02 pm to
I’m with Archie Manning on this it’s not over until the names are officially called and the teams are lined up on the field. #Believe
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