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Basketball Statistics Thru 7 Games Compared to Past 3 Years
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:33 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:33 am
The basketball team looks halfway decent this year based on the eye test, but I wanted to dig into the stats a little bit to see how they compared to other MM teams at this point in this season (7 games). So here are the opponents and stats thru 7 games for the past 4 seasons. Note: The KenPom Net rankings of past seasons are full season, not at the time.
Edited: These rankings are KenPom Net, not NCAA NET.
My takeaways:
1. Very weak schedule this season. The average KenPom Net rankings say the schedule so far is inline with the 22-23 and 24-25 seasons, but they haven't played anyone under 100 Net so far. 23-24 was actually a pretty tough non-conference schedule to start the season with 4 teams that finished in the top 80 Net. BC (122), TTU (28), and SMU (42) coming up will be very telling.
2. Offense appears to be actually good, even with the easier schedule. Points per possession and most shooting categories are way up. We're getting to the FT line more and making them. Offensive rebounding looks better. But most importantly, turnovers are way down and assists are way up. Having a real point guard is so important.
3. Defense, on the other hand, looks pretty average compared to previous seasons. The only bright spot is it looks like they have cleaned up the boards better this season. The past few seasons were maddening watching other teams get 2, 3, or even 4 shots in a single possession. Steals are low and the other teams have a positive A/T ratio on average, which is not good at this point in the season against poor competition. Maybe there has been a philosophy change here - focusing more on playing fundamental defense instead of getting steals, but steals usually lead to easy baskets on the other end. I guess we'll see.
Watching the past few seasons it felt like the biggest areas for improvement were cleaning up the turnovers, defending the 3, and locking down the defensive boards - which are less skill-based and more effort/attitude in my opinion. As someone who has played a lot of basketball in my life, it's been hard to watch. I live and work in Auburn, and it's fun for the city and campus having a competitive basketball team to follow. I wish that for LSU. Even if MM has a decent season and saves his job, it would be nice to get a new coach to bring some energy and life back into the program like Bruce Pearl was able to do here.
I might compare the past three full seasons in the same way and track this season along with them, or maybe do SEC only comparisons for different vantage points. Open to suggestions.
Edited: These rankings are KenPom Net, not NCAA NET.
My takeaways:
1. Very weak schedule this season. The average KenPom Net rankings say the schedule so far is inline with the 22-23 and 24-25 seasons, but they haven't played anyone under 100 Net so far. 23-24 was actually a pretty tough non-conference schedule to start the season with 4 teams that finished in the top 80 Net. BC (122), TTU (28), and SMU (42) coming up will be very telling.
2. Offense appears to be actually good, even with the easier schedule. Points per possession and most shooting categories are way up. We're getting to the FT line more and making them. Offensive rebounding looks better. But most importantly, turnovers are way down and assists are way up. Having a real point guard is so important.
3. Defense, on the other hand, looks pretty average compared to previous seasons. The only bright spot is it looks like they have cleaned up the boards better this season. The past few seasons were maddening watching other teams get 2, 3, or even 4 shots in a single possession. Steals are low and the other teams have a positive A/T ratio on average, which is not good at this point in the season against poor competition. Maybe there has been a philosophy change here - focusing more on playing fundamental defense instead of getting steals, but steals usually lead to easy baskets on the other end. I guess we'll see.
Watching the past few seasons it felt like the biggest areas for improvement were cleaning up the turnovers, defending the 3, and locking down the defensive boards - which are less skill-based and more effort/attitude in my opinion. As someone who has played a lot of basketball in my life, it's been hard to watch. I live and work in Auburn, and it's fun for the city and campus having a competitive basketball team to follow. I wish that for LSU. Even if MM has a decent season and saves his job, it would be nice to get a new coach to bring some energy and life back into the program like Bruce Pearl was able to do here.
I might compare the past three full seasons in the same way and track this season along with them, or maybe do SEC only comparisons for different vantage points. Open to suggestions.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 9:23 am
14
Posted on 12/2/25 at 3:28 am to BigerTait
quote:Great start to this season so far but we’ve already seen how unprepared we looked for SEC play in those seasons. Interesting how much better we did in the SEC in 23-24 season when we played a more difficult OOC schedule.
Very weak schedule this season. The average NET rankings say the schedule so far is inline with the 22-23 and 24-25 seasons
A lot of casuals have not tuned into any games yet this year at all because of the weak schedule and they will only be judged on if we can be competitive in the SEC i.e. make the tournament. Just as I don’t pay attention to NBA until postseason starts, the seasons yet to begin in my book where MM will be judged which is good.
Listening to Verge speak on the football program in pinned thread at the top, it doesn’t sound like someone that will force us to accept mediocrity anymore at LSU
Posted on 12/2/25 at 3:49 am to BigerTait
I appreciate your post. 
The next 3 games will give us some better insight prior to 3 cupcakes to finish the year.
Btw, does Chicken have you on a one post per year restriction?
The next 3 games will give us some better insight prior to 3 cupcakes to finish the year. Btw, does Chicken have you on a one post per year restriction?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 6:34 am to BigerTait
First big test will be Texas Tech, if they can pull that off on the road it will be very encouraging.
Thomas has been outstanding, hopefully he can continue that in conference play .
Nwoko and Mackinnon are better than I thought they would be.
Thomas has been outstanding, hopefully he can continue that in conference play .
Nwoko and Mackinnon are better than I thought they would be.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 6:42 am to BigerTait
Great post!
Technically that is correct, but i was encouraged by the scrimmage against ucf (top 65). Both teams treated it as a real game
quote:
but they haven't played anyone under 100 NET
Technically that is correct, but i was encouraged by the scrimmage against ucf (top 65). Both teams treated it as a real game
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:30 am to BigerTait
The last few teams had me hopeful of mediocre SEC play. As soon as league games started LSU wasn’t competitive or were barely competitive. This years team looks better but the league is pretty stout this year. I’m hopeful of more competitive this year but I’m not holding my breath.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:33 am to AllemanWC
quote:
This years team looks better but the league is pretty stout this year. I’m hopeful of more competitive this year but I’m not holding my breath.
I think the SEC is down this year.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:49 am to BigerTait
I love this write up. Thank you for the data!
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:51 am to BigerTait
Great post!
The offense has been very efficient. Ironically, the formula is similar to some of Wade's best offensive teams. Great FG% from 2, good offensive rebound %, taking (and making) a LOT of FTs, low turnovers. That's how you can be good even if you aren't a great 3 point shooting team. Honestly, the only time the offense has struggled this season is the 2nd half vs. Drake. Some of that can be attributed to missed FTs.
IMO, the turnovers are still a work in progress. Thomas has been excellent in that department. He leads the SEC, by a pretty significant margin, in A:TO ratio. It's the frontcourt guys, specifically Reed and Miller, who are more of the concern. Reed is inconsistent as he's always been. Some nights he's really good and a dominant post scorer. Other nights he's turning the ball over 3 times in 12 minutes of action. Miller had his best scoring night vs. DePaul. But he also turned the ball over 5 times. Nwoko is playing great. But he won't be able to carry the load alone in SEC play. Reed and Miller are SEC bodies. They have to play like it when the competition level rises. Tamba has been very good against weak competition. But it's unlikely that will continue against bigger, more athletic frontcourts.
Last year was McMahon's best defensive team. That was largely due to the rim protection Chest and Collins brought. That is not there any longer. I don't think this team can ever be more than just an average defensive team (at best). But that can be enough to make the NCAAT if the offense continues to hum. I'm not really sure what to think about the defense at the moment. They were not good vs FIU and Alcorn. Then they were great vs Drake and DePaul. Which is the outlier?
It's still early, but McMahon, who has generally been good against a crappy non-conf. schedule, has been far better this year. McMahon has also been solid in the Thanksgiving tournaments (now a 7-3 record), but this past tournament was the best LSU ever performed (though probably against the weakest competition).
It has generally been the December jump in competition where things started to unravel. Can this team continue the trend of looking different than previous teams? that will be what to watch for in the next 2 weeks.
quote:
2. Offense appears to be actually good, even with the easier schedule. Points per possession and most shooting categories are way up. We're getting to the FT line more and making them. Offensive rebounding looks better. But most importantly, turnovers are way down and assists are way up. Having a real point guard is so important.
The offense has been very efficient. Ironically, the formula is similar to some of Wade's best offensive teams. Great FG% from 2, good offensive rebound %, taking (and making) a LOT of FTs, low turnovers. That's how you can be good even if you aren't a great 3 point shooting team. Honestly, the only time the offense has struggled this season is the 2nd half vs. Drake. Some of that can be attributed to missed FTs.
IMO, the turnovers are still a work in progress. Thomas has been excellent in that department. He leads the SEC, by a pretty significant margin, in A:TO ratio. It's the frontcourt guys, specifically Reed and Miller, who are more of the concern. Reed is inconsistent as he's always been. Some nights he's really good and a dominant post scorer. Other nights he's turning the ball over 3 times in 12 minutes of action. Miller had his best scoring night vs. DePaul. But he also turned the ball over 5 times. Nwoko is playing great. But he won't be able to carry the load alone in SEC play. Reed and Miller are SEC bodies. They have to play like it when the competition level rises. Tamba has been very good against weak competition. But it's unlikely that will continue against bigger, more athletic frontcourts.
quote:
Defense, on the other hand, looks pretty average compared to previous seasons.
Last year was McMahon's best defensive team. That was largely due to the rim protection Chest and Collins brought. That is not there any longer. I don't think this team can ever be more than just an average defensive team (at best). But that can be enough to make the NCAAT if the offense continues to hum. I'm not really sure what to think about the defense at the moment. They were not good vs FIU and Alcorn. Then they were great vs Drake and DePaul. Which is the outlier?
It's still early, but McMahon, who has generally been good against a crappy non-conf. schedule, has been far better this year. McMahon has also been solid in the Thanksgiving tournaments (now a 7-3 record), but this past tournament was the best LSU ever performed (though probably against the weakest competition).
It has generally been the December jump in competition where things started to unravel. Can this team continue the trend of looking different than previous teams? that will be what to watch for in the next 2 weeks.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:52 am to BigerTait
You guys do this to yourself every year. They're playing mostly shite teams at beginning of season. Wait until the real games start to form an opinion. I suspect it will go as previous seasons but hopefully not.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:53 am to BigerTait
Have yourself a downvote
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:53 am to Septiger
quote:
I think the SEC is down this year.
It's certainly down from last year. But that's because it was historically good last year. There was almost nowhere to go but down. Still, it's currently the top rated conference in both NET and KenPom. What may be the case is the SEC doesn't have as many elite teams as it had last season, but it may be strong from top to bottom.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:21 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Listening to Verge speak on the football program in pinned thread at the top, it doesn’t sound like someone that will force us to accept mediocrity anymore at LSU
This gives me hope. Even if we are made to suffer through another bad or mediocre SEC schedule, Verge will pull the trigger.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:31 am to BigerTait
quote:
Even if MM has a decent season and saves his job, it would be nice to get a new coach to bring some energy and life back into the program like Bruce Pearl was able to do here.
Clearly you haven't watched the games and sideline this year. The energy, chemistry, and engagement is way up this year from the whole team from the coaches down. You don't need a coach always one call from a coronary like Pearl (who never won a championship).
McMahon is working referees hard, team is cheering each other on every possession, and there's real tangible coaching, development, and adjustments being made. Will the end results be different? Who knows, but the effort is there, talent is there, and player buy-in is there and those aren't things that metrics can tell you.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:33 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:56 am to The Pirate King
quote:
Clearly you haven't watched the games and sideline this year. The energy, chemistry, and engagement is way up this year from the whole team from the coaches down. You don't need a coach always one call from a coronary like Pearl (who never won a championship).
I think he's talking about promoting the program and trying to generate interest outside of just showing up and coaching. McMahon doesn't do that and has never done that. He doesn't like doing it. That's fine. Everyone's personality is different. But if you aren't out promoting the program and you lose, a LOT, you can't be surprised when the tone around the program is one of apathy...which is what surrounds the program now.
If he wins big this year (relatively speaking) then the fans might start to come back. But the three year hole in fan interest that has been dug is very deep. It's going to take more than wins over teams most casual fans have never heard of to start changing the atmosphere
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:40 pm to BigerTait
Excellent spreadsheet. Are the per game numbers for previous seasons over the entire season or through 7 games?
I think our defense has improved from the first few games. We aren't trying to double as much which caused breakdowns. We may rely on 3/4 and full court presses more which takes advantage of our size and speeds up the game, both in our favor.
I think our defense has improved from the first few games. We aren't trying to double as much which caused breakdowns. We may rely on 3/4 and full court presses more which takes advantage of our size and speeds up the game, both in our favor.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:52 pm to BigerTait
The biggest positive from this season is that we are blowing the teams on our schedule that we should be blowing out. In years past we’d have a terrible non-conference schedule and beat bad teams by 10-15 points and act like it was an accomplishment to get a win. We ate much improved on that regard.
I am still wanting to see how we handle the physicality of SEC play before really getting my hopes up for this season though.
I am still wanting to see how we handle the physicality of SEC play before really getting my hopes up for this season though.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 3:45 pm to mmcgrath
Just the first 7 games of each season. I would imagine most of those stats got worse after going through the SEC schedule.
I was just trying to compare apples to apples at this point in the season to see if/where improvement might have occurred.
I’ll work on a similar spreadsheet for the entire season, maybe with different splits (OOC vs IC, home vs away, etc).
I was just trying to compare apples to apples at this point in the season to see if/where improvement might have occurred.
I’ll work on a similar spreadsheet for the entire season, maybe with different splits (OOC vs IC, home vs away, etc).
Posted on 12/2/25 at 3:48 pm to BigerTait
This schedule is an absolute disgrace for a SEC basketball program. Will only have 2 non conference games against top 100 teams…
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:37 am to BigerTait
That is excellent. I know that last year really fell off the rails at this point while two years ago picked up in January. Should be interesting to follow.
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