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Fed Study Vindicates Trump: 150 Years of Evidence Shows Tariffs Lower Inflation

Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:02 pm
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92511 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:02 pm
quote:

A sweeping new analysis of tariff policy spanning 150 years suggests that the economic establishment may have fundamentally misunderstood how tariffs affect prices and employment, a finding with profound implications for understanding President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the proper response by the Federal Reserve.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco examined major tariff changes from 1870 through 2020 across the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Their conclusion challenges the conventional wisdom that dominated economic policy debates in recent years: when countries raise tariffs, prices actually fall, not rise.

“We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment and lowers inflation,” the authors, Régis Barnichon and Aayush Singh, write in their working paper released this month.”This goes against the predictions of standard models, whereby CPI inflation should go up in response to higher tariffs.”




But coffee and bananas
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
36239 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

“We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment



Yay Trump!
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
463912 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:10 pm to
Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?

Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40519 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment and lowers inflation,”


Oh, so demand destruction
Posted by beaux duke
Member since Oct 2023
2859 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:12 pm to
so no link to this (((study)))?
Posted by Fuzzy Dunlop
Member since Mar 2025
138 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:13 pm to
So it's bad economic policy just for a different reason, great revelation there. Also is there a link?
This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:14 pm
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92511 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:14 pm to
https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2025/11/what-is-a-tariff-shock-insights-from-150-years-of-tariff-policy/

I knew this would cause a melt from the panicans

They are so mad
This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:16 pm
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
9698 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:17 pm to
Seems like a good time to copy and paste this email I received from a very large supplier just earlier this week:

quote:

Partners and friends, I know it’s a busy time for everyone and I wish you a wonderful holiday season ahead. In the summer, I let you know we would hold prices through the end of 2025. We have, and I’m pleased to say we’ll honor that promise for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, the small price adjustment we made in June wasn’t enough to offset the significant cost increases we’ve faced. As a result, prices on many (redacted) products will increase in January. Because tariffs vary greatly between our sourcing countries, it’s impossible to make a simple flat rate increase like we did in the summer. So we're approaching this brand by brand and category by category, being as careful as we can. On average, prices will increase by about 5%. The full list of styles with price changes is available here. I know this isn’t welcome news. We have done all we can to pass on the smallest possible increase. Since tariffs were announced eight months ago, we’ve been working hard to minimize their impact on you. We have negotiated with our sourcing partners to lower prices. We moved products out of higher tariff countries, re-sourcing approximately 40% of our styles. And we absorbed a significant amount of costs ourselves. We hope this will be the only time we raise prices in 2026, but we need to see stability in tariffs before we can commit to that. It remains a dynamic time—you have our promise to always be transparent and do the right thing for you, our customers. As always, we appreciate your partnership. I know you have choices where you buy your apparel. We’ll continue to work every day to earn your trust and your business. Best,
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85180 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:18 pm to
People also just trusted what the CBO claimed when they’ve been wrong before.


And it is hard to prove your predications that are 10 years out when you could have one or two administration changes implementing their own policies.


Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
18603 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

Oh, so demand destruction


If they wont stop printing dollars

demand destruction is the only other possible mechanism
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40519 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:20 pm to
quote:


If they wont stop printing dollars

demand destruction is the only other possible mechanism


Good luck with that message the next election.

"We put you out of a job for your own good"
This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:20 pm
Posted by Green Chili Tiger
Lurking the Tin Foil Hat Board
Member since Jul 2009
50192 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

If they wont stop printing dollars


Who is "they"?
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
15531 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:25 pm to
I can speak from anecdotal experience and here’s what I can tell you

Lumber imported from Canada has risen in price due to tarriffs

Also, windows with parts from China have increased.

I don’t see anything that has dropped in price as a result of levying a tarriff.
Posted by SaintsTiger
1,000,000 Posts
Member since Oct 2014
1883 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?

Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?


H Kilburn.

The idea is that foreign companies eat most of the cost of tariffs. Not that consumers do. Foreign companies can get a big discount by manufacturing state side. So they do. That’s why Toyota is building plants here.
Posted by LSUbest
Coastal Plain
Member since Aug 2007
14935 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

But coffee and bananas


Yea.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92511 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

Yea


The essentials according to powerbottom
Posted by Bring Da Wood
Texas
Member since Dec 2006
2119 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:49 pm to
They are right and most people don’t understand this concept because they don’t realize prices and inflation are two different things. The previous administration spent 4 years screwing up the economy with retarded policies that contributed to 9% inflation. It’s going to take more than 12 months to unfrick ourselves from that.

People get really upset when they find out prices aren’t going to come down much, if at all. That’s why Bidens administration was such a disaster. Onshoring manufacturing is a great start and should create higher wages in the US but that doesn’t happen overnight.

Posted by ABearsFanNMS
Formerly of tLandmass now in Texas
Member since Oct 2014
19709 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?

Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?


Jesus you are a moron. Let’s see, if a business saves 20% by manufacturing overseas but the tariff is 25% then what would the smart business man do? He would move the manufacturing back to the United States. Costs less and less lag time/transportation costs. Save 5% plus he has a more reliable supply chain.

How hard is this to grasp for a small town ambulance chaser?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92511 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

How hard is this to grasp for a small town ambulance chaser?


Its the TDS
Posted by CrimsonJazz
Member since Dec 2014
1043 posts
Posted on 11/14/25 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

But coffee and bananas


Nanners, baw.
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