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Fed Study Vindicates Trump: 150 Years of Evidence Shows Tariffs Lower Inflation
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:02 pm
quote:
A sweeping new analysis of tariff policy spanning 150 years suggests that the economic establishment may have fundamentally misunderstood how tariffs affect prices and employment, a finding with profound implications for understanding President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the proper response by the Federal Reserve.
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco examined major tariff changes from 1870 through 2020 across the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Their conclusion challenges the conventional wisdom that dominated economic policy debates in recent years: when countries raise tariffs, prices actually fall, not rise.
“We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment and lowers inflation,” the authors, Régis Barnichon and Aayush Singh, write in their working paper released this month.”This goes against the predictions of standard models, whereby CPI inflation should go up in response to higher tariffs.”
But coffee and bananas
20
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:08 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
“We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment
Yay Trump!
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:10 pm to SDVTiger
Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?
Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?
Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:11 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment and lowers inflation,”
Oh, so demand destruction
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:12 pm to SDVTiger
so no link to this (((study)))?
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:13 pm to SDVTiger
So it's bad economic policy just for a different reason, great revelation there. Also is there a link?
Also is there a link? This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:14 pm to Fuzzy Dunlop
https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2025/11/what-is-a-tariff-shock-insights-from-150-years-of-tariff-policy/
I knew this would cause a melt from the panicans
They are so mad
I knew this would cause a melt from the panicans
They are so mad
This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:17 pm to SDVTiger
Seems like a good time to copy and paste this email I received from a very large supplier just earlier this week:
quote:
Partners and friends, I know it’s a busy time for everyone and I wish you a wonderful holiday season ahead. In the summer, I let you know we would hold prices through the end of 2025. We have, and I’m pleased to say we’ll honor that promise for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, the small price adjustment we made in June wasn’t enough to offset the significant cost increases we’ve faced. As a result, prices on many (redacted) products will increase in January. Because tariffs vary greatly between our sourcing countries, it’s impossible to make a simple flat rate increase like we did in the summer. So we're approaching this brand by brand and category by category, being as careful as we can. On average, prices will increase by about 5%. The full list of styles with price changes is available here. I know this isn’t welcome news. We have done all we can to pass on the smallest possible increase. Since tariffs were announced eight months ago, we’ve been working hard to minimize their impact on you. We have negotiated with our sourcing partners to lower prices. We moved products out of higher tariff countries, re-sourcing approximately 40% of our styles. And we absorbed a significant amount of costs ourselves. We hope this will be the only time we raise prices in 2026, but we need to see stability in tariffs before we can commit to that. It remains a dynamic time—you have our promise to always be transparent and do the right thing for you, our customers. As always, we appreciate your partnership. I know you have choices where you buy your apparel. We’ll continue to work every day to earn your trust and your business. Best,
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:18 pm to SDVTiger
People also just trusted what the CBO claimed when they’ve been wrong before.
And it is hard to prove your predications that are 10 years out when you could have one or two administration changes implementing their own policies.
And it is hard to prove your predications that are 10 years out when you could have one or two administration changes implementing their own policies.
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:19 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Oh, so demand destruction
If they wont stop printing dollars
demand destruction is the only other possible mechanism
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:20 pm to The Baker
quote:
If they wont stop printing dollars
demand destruction is the only other possible mechanism
Good luck with that message the next election.
"We put you out of a job for your own good"
This post was edited on 11/14/25 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:23 pm to The Baker
quote:
If they wont stop printing dollars
Who is "they"?
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:25 pm to SDVTiger
I can speak from anecdotal experience and here’s what I can tell you
Lumber imported from Canada has risen in price due to tarriffs
Also, windows with parts from China have increased.
I don’t see anything that has dropped in price as a result of levying a tarriff.
Lumber imported from Canada has risen in price due to tarriffs
Also, windows with parts from China have increased.
I don’t see anything that has dropped in price as a result of levying a tarriff.
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?
Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?
H Kilburn.
The idea is that foreign companies eat most of the cost of tariffs. Not that consumers do. Foreign companies can get a big discount by manufacturing state side. So they do. That’s why Toyota is building plants here.
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:34 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
But coffee and bananas
Yea.
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:44 pm to LSUbest
quote:
Yea
The essentials according to powerbottom
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:49 pm to SDVTiger
They are right and most people don’t understand this concept because they don’t realize prices and inflation are two different things. The previous administration spent 4 years screwing up the economy with retarded policies that contributed to 9% inflation. It’s going to take more than 12 months to unfrick ourselves from that.
People get really upset when they find out prices aren’t going to come down much, if at all. That’s why Bidens administration was such a disaster. Onshoring manufacturing is a great start and should create higher wages in the US but that doesn’t happen overnight.
People get really upset when they find out prices aren’t going to come down much, if at all. That’s why Bidens administration was such a disaster. Onshoring manufacturing is a great start and should create higher wages in the US but that doesn’t happen overnight.
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:51 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Then how will we bring manufacturing back to the US, if prices don't increase, which is the stated goal of tariffs by Bessent?
Isn't the higher prices making domestic manufacturing palatable/profitable the backbone of that policy?
Jesus you are a moron. Let’s see, if a business saves 20% by manufacturing overseas but the tariff is 25% then what would the smart business man do? He would move the manufacturing back to the United States. Costs less and less lag time/transportation costs. Save 5% plus he has a more reliable supply chain.
How hard is this to grasp for a small town ambulance chaser?
Posted on 11/14/25 at 3:56 pm to ABearsFanNMS
quote:
How hard is this to grasp for a small town ambulance chaser?
Its the TDS
Posted on 11/14/25 at 4:01 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
But coffee and bananas
Nanners, baw.
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