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How often has LSU really competed for championships since 2000?
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:31 am
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:31 am
I found myself pretty down on the season because we don't look like a team that will likely make a run at a championship and often think that should be the standard most years. However, when I started thinking about it how often have we really had a team that has the athletes and is good enough to make a run, is that really a realistic standard? I started watching LSU in 05 but looking back if I'm being generous 03,05,06,07,10,11,12,19 are the years we had good teams with a legitimate shot. that's 7 out of 24 years not counting this year, which seems good but which means 17 out of the 24 were just ok. Most of the time with teams ranked 15-20.
The point of this long paragraph being, how much slack should we logically give BK? If this year's team is a top 10 team but not a top 3 team and next year is a top 20 team but he is still recruiting at a high level, is it more reasonable to just keep hoping he can pull something off rather than clamor for the axe?
The point of this long paragraph being, how much slack should we logically give BK? If this year's team is a top 10 team but not a top 3 team and next year is a top 20 team but he is still recruiting at a high level, is it more reasonable to just keep hoping he can pull something off rather than clamor for the axe?
18
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:33 am to Srobi14
Well, we went 13-0 then competed (sort of) for the championship in 2011 and everyone wanted to fire the coach…so there’s that.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:33 am to Srobi14
LSU has been a mediocre program in the playoff era.
1 appearance only is pathetic.
1 appearance only is pathetic.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:35 am to Srobi14
None of those year did we have a 12 team playoff. I don’t think many are expecting LSU to win the national championship this year. We are expecting to be a top 4 SEC team and make the playoff. How many years since 2000 has LSU been a top 4 SEC team?
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:42 am to Srobi14
quote:
how much slack should we logically give BK?
Bout $70 mil worth…
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:47 am to Srobi14
About 20%
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:50 am to Srobi14
2003 didn't feel like a natty year during the year, especially after the Florida loss, but that defense carried us and the offense made the plays they needed to.
2005 was post-Katrina and that year felt like we were hanging on for dear life all year. That Monday night game against Tenn. sucked.
2006 with Russell felt like we had a chance
2007 with Flynn felt like we had a chance after the Florida game.
2010 felt like a good team
2011 felt like a natty winner after the Oregon opener
2013 felt like a good team until we realized the defense was poo
2019 felt like a natty winner after the Texas game
So 7 out of 24 years is right. One under Saban, Five under Miles, One under Orgeron.
This year started out as a natty winner potential season. Now, we'll see what happens Saturday and if they fixed some of the OL issues. If not, we're cooked for this year. You can't win in the SEC without good line play on both sides.
2005 was post-Katrina and that year felt like we were hanging on for dear life all year. That Monday night game against Tenn. sucked.
2006 with Russell felt like we had a chance
2007 with Flynn felt like we had a chance after the Florida game.
2010 felt like a good team
2011 felt like a natty winner after the Oregon opener
2013 felt like a good team until we realized the defense was poo
2019 felt like a natty winner after the Texas game
So 7 out of 24 years is right. One under Saban, Five under Miles, One under Orgeron.
This year started out as a natty winner potential season. Now, we'll see what happens Saturday and if they fixed some of the OL issues. If not, we're cooked for this year. You can't win in the SEC without good line play on both sides.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:59 am to MetArl15
quote:
LSU has been a mediocre program in the playoff era.
1 appearance only is pathetic
Yeah, disregard that it was at a time when 2 of the biggest dynasties this sport will ever see were active (Georgia, Bama) and usually only 1 school from that conference could get in.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:11 am to Srobi14
quote:
but looking back if I'm being generous 03,05,06,07,10,11,12,19 are the years we had good teams with a legitimate shot
Objectively, if we had a 12 team playoff (with conference champs getting in)
2001- Poor record, 3 losses, but we win in Atlanta so we get in. Dangerous team due to explosive offense, too.
2003- yep
2004- probably. 2 loss regular season, 1 pt loss at Auburn, UGA blows us out.
2005- yep, although getting blown out by UGA again drops us in seeding
2006- 2 losses, we get in
2007- yep, Winning in Atlanta guarantees we get in
2010- probably, loss in final game @ Arkansas drops us in seeding
2011- obviously we're 13-0, would be top seed
2012- yep,
2019- yep, same as 2011
**2009, we were in play until a 2 pt loss @ Ole Miss late. 2018, in play until the 7OT loss to A&M to finish the season. 2017, if we simply beat Troy at home, it's a 2 loss year and we likely get in. 2022 and 2023, those season opening OOC losses to Fla State end up being being 3rd losses when we had 2 SEC losses; play a cupcake and we're likely in.
Maybe NOT 2022, because we lost in Atlanta (another loss), but we did go to Atlanta.
2022 and 2023 are shining examples of why you should not play teams with a pulse to open the season. Sure the fans like them if we win. Not worth the risk as evidenced here- let's play that team in the playoffs instead.
2022 is also an example of the risk conference championships pose; 10-2 you get in. 10-3, maybe not.
So basically, from 2013 onwards, we go in 2019, and we're just outside in 18, 22, 23.
2024 is weird; opening loss to USC... replace that with a cupcake W. You're then in play but lose 3 straight, last being @ Florida. Win that Fla game which we should, add the cupcake W to open, and we're in.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:11 am to Srobi14
2 years ago we had a championship offense. If only we had an AVERAGE defense that year…
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:26 am to Srobi14
There are certain years the pieces are in place for a championship run. Almost always the biggest piece for LSU has been a veteran QB. Mauk, Flynn, Russell, Jefferson, Burrow, Daniels. LSU has that this year.
Also, more often than not the preseason rankings have suggested a championship run may be in the cards. Only in 2003 did LSU not start the season ranked in the top 10. When you look some of the other years you listed you see a high preseason ranking:
05 (5)
06 (8)
07 (2)
11 (4)
12 (1/3)
19 (6)
25 (9)
It hasn't always been a perfect, predictor, but years LSU truly competed for championships (outside of 03), they didn't "sneak" up on anyone. They were expected to be good (as evidenced by the preseason rankings)
IF LSU fails to make the CFP this year it will be the second time in 3 years BK had a team start the season in the top 10 and fail to reach the CFP. But moving past the preseason rankings, look at the rest of the SEC and country. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, ALL have new starting QBs. LSU has a QB with the most production from last year than any returning QB. Outside of the SEC Ohio St, Notre Dame, Oregon, all have new QBs. That should be a HUGE advantage for LSU (like it was in 2023). Thus far, it hasn't.
Then you throw in what LSU did in the transfer portal. LSU had the No. 1 ranked transfer class. LSU also had continuity in the coaching staff, unlike last year when LSU had a new OC and DC. The transfers on the defensive side have proven to make a huge impact. It's the overall play of the offense that has been the disaster.
Unless something changes quickly, we are looking at another 2023. Great on one side of the ball. Really bad on the other. LSU's defense in 2022 was not bad. And in 2023 all it had to be was average to make the CFP. Yet, the staff couldn't even drag the defense to that low bar. Here, LSU's defense has been really good. So much so that LSU is 5-0 with even just an offense as good as Iowa! Yet, the staff is struggling to drag the offense to even that low bar.
Last year was never going to be a championship run year with so much "new" in place. Neither was 2022. 2023 should have been. This is year is another. The excuses that may have been justifiable in other years don't apply this season. Anything short of a CFP appearance will be a big disappointment
Also, more often than not the preseason rankings have suggested a championship run may be in the cards. Only in 2003 did LSU not start the season ranked in the top 10. When you look some of the other years you listed you see a high preseason ranking:
05 (5)
06 (8)
07 (2)
11 (4)
12 (1/3)
19 (6)
25 (9)
It hasn't always been a perfect, predictor, but years LSU truly competed for championships (outside of 03), they didn't "sneak" up on anyone. They were expected to be good (as evidenced by the preseason rankings)
IF LSU fails to make the CFP this year it will be the second time in 3 years BK had a team start the season in the top 10 and fail to reach the CFP. But moving past the preseason rankings, look at the rest of the SEC and country. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, ALL have new starting QBs. LSU has a QB with the most production from last year than any returning QB. Outside of the SEC Ohio St, Notre Dame, Oregon, all have new QBs. That should be a HUGE advantage for LSU (like it was in 2023). Thus far, it hasn't.
Then you throw in what LSU did in the transfer portal. LSU had the No. 1 ranked transfer class. LSU also had continuity in the coaching staff, unlike last year when LSU had a new OC and DC. The transfers on the defensive side have proven to make a huge impact. It's the overall play of the offense that has been the disaster.
Unless something changes quickly, we are looking at another 2023. Great on one side of the ball. Really bad on the other. LSU's defense in 2022 was not bad. And in 2023 all it had to be was average to make the CFP. Yet, the staff couldn't even drag the defense to that low bar. Here, LSU's defense has been really good. So much so that LSU is 5-0 with even just an offense as good as Iowa! Yet, the staff is struggling to drag the offense to even that low bar.
Last year was never going to be a championship run year with so much "new" in place. Neither was 2022. 2023 should have been. This is year is another. The excuses that may have been justifiable in other years don't apply this season. Anything short of a CFP appearance will be a big disappointment
This post was edited on 10/7/25 at 11:29 am
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:33 am to Srobi14
“Competed for championships” is tough to achieve. We should be in a 12 team playoff every damn year
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:39 am to TigerGrad03
I think the 2001 and 2018 teams would have made some noise in a 12 team playoff.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:45 am to MetArl15
quote:
LSU has been a mediocre program in the playoff era.
1 appearance only is pathetic.
There are only 21 programs out of 136 FBS programs that have made the CFP (15%). Only 12 programs have have made multiple appearances (8%). Only 6 programs have won a national title (4%).
What exactly constitutes being "mediocre" in your opinion? Being outside the top 8% in appearances? Kind of a high bar you're setting to escape mediocrity, but this is the rant I guess
This post was edited on 10/7/25 at 11:47 am
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:49 am to Scoob
quote:
Objectively, if we had a 12 team playoff (with conference champs getting in)
2001- Poor record, 3 losses, but we win in Atlanta so we get in. Dangerous team due to explosive offense, too.
2003- yep
2004- probably. 2 loss regular season, 1 pt loss at Auburn, UGA blows us out.
2005- yep, although getting blown out by UGA again drops us in seeding
2006- 2 losses, we get in
2007- yep, Winning in Atlanta guarantees we get in
2010- probably, loss in final game @ Arkansas drops us in seeding
2011- obviously we're 13-0, would be top seed
2012- yep,
2019- yep, same as 2011
We'd have gotten in in 2018 as well. We were ranked 11th in the final CFP poll
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:59 am to Srobi14
In the realm of a 12-team playoff, LSU had a bunch of teams that could compete for championships.
The problem with the old system is that there was zero margin for error and you basically had to be perfect. Very hard to do, especially in the SEC. It's crazy that we were able to win it twice in four years pre-playoff.
Think about the teams that could've made a run and got hot in a 12-team playoff (01, 05, 06, 10, 12, etc.).
Just make it to the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.
The problem with the old system is that there was zero margin for error and you basically had to be perfect. Very hard to do, especially in the SEC. It's crazy that we were able to win it twice in four years pre-playoff.
Think about the teams that could've made a run and got hot in a 12-team playoff (01, 05, 06, 10, 12, etc.).
Just make it to the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:42 pm to John Rambeaux
quote:
it was at a time when 2 of the biggest dynasties this sport will ever see were active (Georgia, Bama)
UGA's been great in a compact (8-9 years) amount of time. Not sure that=dynasty. In fact, using the timebox offered up by the OP, LSU has as many SEC titles and 1 more natty. And LSU and UGA have both played and lost a nc game to Bama...the actual dynasty in the bunch.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:44 pm to Srobi14
This program has done precious little in the playoff era. So there's that. This year will more likely than not, be BK's worst to date at LSU.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:44 pm to TigerGrad03
quote:
2013
quote:
the defense
Posted on 10/7/25 at 1:02 pm to lsufball19
quote:Since 2014 and not counting this season, LSU is 101-42 overall and 59-33 in the SEC (including SECCGs). That’s an average of 9-4 (5-3). That is mediocre and exactly what we make fun of Texas A&M for.
What exactly constitutes being "mediocre" in your opinion?
If you exclude the one magical 2019 season, it’s beyond pathetic. But the ability to have a team like that with LA talent helps reinforce that this program is mediocre in the playoff era. The potential is there always, but it’s been largely unremarkable.
This post was edited on 10/7/25 at 1:04 pm
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