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Started By
Message
August jobs revision from +54Kto -3K
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:25 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:25 am
14
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:38 am to The Egg
We are fricked. Multi trillion dollar deficits already, and now the economy is grinding to a halt. Can't spend our way out of this one.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:39 am to The Egg
Definitely slowing down for the average Joe.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:40 am to j1897
quote:Oh no. Gloom and doom. Might as well pull the pin and see what is next.
We are fricked.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:42 am to The Egg
quote:
Private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in September and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the September ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").
At least wages are outpacing inflation.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:44 am to j1897
quote:
We are fricked. Multi trillion dollar deficits already, and now the economy is grinding to a halt. Can't spend our way out of this one
What? Job creation being low is not the most significant metric when unemployment is at its current level. I don't think you can reach that conclusion until you have all the information. If unemployment increases and job creation declines, then you have a problem. I also wonder if federal works are calculated in this list. Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:48 am to Rtowntiger
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:49 am to j1897
quote:
We are fricked
WE SHOULD HAVE VOTED FOR KAMALA!!!
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:50 am to Bourre
quote:
WE SHOULD HAVE VOTED FOR KAMALA!!!
looks like you pissed off a whiner
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:52 am to RohanGonzales
quote:
looks like you pissed off a whiner
Looks like you can’t tell sarcasm
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:54 am to The Egg
Frick ADP. They are not the government and a private company. If they cannot figure their own data out, then they should probably nor report numbers. They should be able to write a simple query to report the number of new paychecks going out vs existing.
This seems more about market manipulation and less about accuracy.
This seems more about market manipulation and less about accuracy.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:54 am to The Egg
How do ADP’s numbers compare to BLS numbers?
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:56 am to j1897
quote:
Can't spend our way out of this one.
OK let's cut our way out.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 7:59 am to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Definitely slowing down for the average Joe.
If Joe is a lazy dumb arse maybe. I have a position I’ve been trying to fill for months and we are busier than ever.
Just gave all the good performers on my team a 10% mid-cycle bump to make sire they keep it up.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:02 am to j1897
quote:
Look at the 3 year trend.
Says leisure and hospitality lost the most jobs.
Could be part of that immigrant purge.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:04 am to Rtowntiger
quote:
I also wonder if federal works are calculated in this list.
Well Biden counted his 85,000 newly employed IRS agents so I would assume so
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:07 am to The Egg
I know this is touchy subject because any criticism of the economy is seen as an attack on Trump...which is silly because Trump inherited this mess. You cant undo the Covid lunacy in 10 months. You cant undo bank bailouts and years of QE in 10 months.
Its infinitely safer to invest in asset(real estate, stocks, bonds, funds etc) because our government's primary mission it seems is to inflate these prices. Also production doesnt scale as easily with inflation. If inflation goes up 5%, the stock market goes up 20%
Its risky to invest in production. Its time consuming to invest in building a business. All this printed wealth sits on Wall Street, not Main Street.
Young people cant find jobs...not because they are lazy, but because there arent enough jobs. On top of not having a job, grocery prices are crazy high. I was buying ribeyes at Walmart just 6 months ago at $11/lb every day....now they are $16/lb. It aint just beef, restaurants, services, all of it. Inflation is consuming people and their incomes are not rising to meet it.
We have fundamental issues with our economy that the same ol same ol from DC wont fix
Go to a bank and try to get a loan to start a business, or build a spec home, or anything other than buying something built years ago that the government protects the price of. Unless you are rich already, you aint getting a dime.
I realize Boomers and Xers who only see the economy as the stock market and can conveniently ignore all the young people who cant find work, will downvote me. Thats fine
Its infinitely safer to invest in asset(real estate, stocks, bonds, funds etc) because our government's primary mission it seems is to inflate these prices. Also production doesnt scale as easily with inflation. If inflation goes up 5%, the stock market goes up 20%
Its risky to invest in production. Its time consuming to invest in building a business. All this printed wealth sits on Wall Street, not Main Street.
Young people cant find jobs...not because they are lazy, but because there arent enough jobs. On top of not having a job, grocery prices are crazy high. I was buying ribeyes at Walmart just 6 months ago at $11/lb every day....now they are $16/lb. It aint just beef, restaurants, services, all of it. Inflation is consuming people and their incomes are not rising to meet it.
We have fundamental issues with our economy that the same ol same ol from DC wont fix
Go to a bank and try to get a loan to start a business, or build a spec home, or anything other than buying something built years ago that the government protects the price of. Unless you are rich already, you aint getting a dime.
I realize Boomers and Xers who only see the economy as the stock market and can conveniently ignore all the young people who cant find work, will downvote me. Thats fine
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 8:12 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:10 am to j1897
quote:
Can't spend our way out of this one.
Tariffs are making bank....Chicken Little
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:16 am to dgnx6
quote:
quote:
Look at the 3 year trend.
Says leisure and hospitality lost the most jobs.
Could be part of that immigrant purge.
Id say yes, but if people were doing those jobs and the operation can go on without those jobs, the demand is less.
Once the credit limit gets close on that credit card...hospitality and leisure gives way to groceries and gas
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:18 am to scottydoesntknow
quote:
I know this is touchy subject because any criticism of the economy is seen as an attack on Trump...which is silly because Trump inherited this mess. You cant undo the Covid lunacy in 10 months. You cant undo bank bailouts and years of QE in 10 months.
Its infinitely safer to invest in asset(real estate, stocks, bonds, funds etc) because our government's primary mission it seems is to inflate these prices. Also production doesnt scale as easily with inflation. If inflation goes up 5%, the stock market goes up 20%
Its risky to invest in production. Its time consuming to invest in building a business. All this printed wealth sits on Wall Street, not Main Street.
Young people cant find jobs...not because they are lazy, but because there arent enough jobs. On top of not having a job, grocery prices are crazy high. I was buying ribeyes at Walmart just 6 months ago at $11/lb every day....now they are $16/lb. It aint just beef, restaurants, services, all of it. Inflation is consuming people and their incomes are not rising to meet it.
We have fundamental issues with our economy that the same ol same ol from DC wont fix
Go to a bank and try to get a loan to start a business, or build a spec home, or anything other than buying something built years ago that the government protects the price of. Unless you are rich already, you aint getting a dime.
I realize Boomers and Xers who only see the economy as the stock market and can conveniently ignore all the young people who cant find work, will downvote me. Thats fine
Boomers importing all the entry / mid sector jobs from overseas too.
Trump rug pulling H1B stuff still has me pissed off.
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