Started By
Message
locked post

Some interesting splits for rushing offense in the SEC

Posted on 9/16/25 at 11:27 pm
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12527 posts
Posted on 9/16/25 at 11:27 pm
Lots of stats below (rushing yards per attempt vs. P4, SEC, and specific opponents). If you aren’t interested in numbers, this is probably the time to bow out.

Someone made a comment in another thread that LSU was ranked last in the SEC for rushing offense (technically we are second to last, but still bad). One thing I’ve been struggling to wrap my head around is how the level of competition - specifically the Clemson and UF defensive lines - plays into all of this. My theory was that the defensive fronts we’ve faced are probably tougher than what most other teams in the SEC have faced. So, some stats (all numbers are rushing yards per attempt; which I think are more useful than per-game averages):

There are only 6 SEC teams who have played more than 1 P4 opponent so far this year. Those teams are LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Alabama, and Vanderbilt.

Here are the rushing yards per attempt for SEC teams against P4 opponents:
1. Arkansas 5.97
2. Auburn 5.90
3. Missouri 5.55
4. Vanderbilt 5.51
5. Tennessee 5.01

6. Kentucky 4.65
7. Texas 4.49
8. Texas A&M 4.00
9. Ole Miss 3.84
10. LSU 3.64

11. Georgia 3.60
12. Oklahoma 3.45
13. Alabama 3.12
14. South Carolina 3.11

15. Florida 2.93
16. Mississippi State 2.20

The teams who have played two P4 opponents are in bold above.

So what about vs. SEC opponents? Only 9 SEC teams have played a conference game so far:
1. Arkansas 5.97
2. Kentucky 4.65
3. Vanderbilt 3.95
4. Ole Miss 3.84
4. LSU 3.84
6. Tennessee 3.68
7. Georgia 3.60
8. South Carolina 2.97
9. Florida 2.93

My next thought was.. of the teams who have played multiple P4 opponents, who were the opponents?

Here are the individual game rushing averages per attempt, ranked from highest to lowest:
Vanderbilt @ Va Tech 7.1
Tennessee N Syracuse 6.2
Ole Miss @ Kentucky 4.6
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina 3.9
LSU vs. Florida 3.8
Tennessee vs. Georgia 3.7
LSU @ Clemson 3.5
Alabama vs. Wisconsin 3.3
South Carolina N Va Tech 3.2
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas 3.0
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt 3.0
Alabama @ Florida State 3.0

The last thing I looked at was the teams we’ve played, and how other teams’ rushing offenses performed against them. Here are the individual game rushing averages per attempt against the teams we’ve faced:
USF @ Florida 4.4
LSU vs. Florida 3.8
LSU vs. La Tech 3.8
LSU @ Clemson 3.5

Ga Tech vs. Clemson 3.5
Southeastern @ La Tech 2.9
Troy @ Clemson 2.4
New Mexico St @ La Tech 1.6
LIU @ Florida 1.2

I find a few things interesting about these stats:
- Most of the SEC seems to be struggling to run the ball against P4 competition, oddly.
- I do believe that LSU has faced stronger rushing defenses than most (if not all) other teams in the SEC so far.
- In this context LSU’s rushing numbers don’t look good, but they also don’t look as cataclysmic as they do without the context. Maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Take it for what it’s worth. Maybe not much. I was just a little surprised at the numbers and thought I’d share with the board.

One last note.. Ole Miss is ranked dead last in the SEC for rushing defense (opponent rush yards per attempt) at 5.36. They are also dead last against P4 opponents at 5.31 yards per attempt. They gave up 5.5 ypc to Georgia State. If we still struggle against them.. that would worry me more than anything we’ve seen so far.
Posted by JW6
Member since Jul 2013
1716 posts
Posted on 9/16/25 at 11:31 pm to
Wow very interesting. Thanks for the deep dive. Love it
Posted by docTQ4
Atlanta GA
Member since Jan 2014
2024 posts
Posted on 9/16/25 at 11:37 pm to
Well done. Good info to get me to step a little farther away from the cliff lol.
Posted by The Last Coco
On the water
Member since Mar 2009
6916 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 6:12 am to
In order for us to properly melt about this, you need to selectively remove all of our biggest runs to show that when you take out our best plays, we suck.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
41631 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 6:49 am to
Love the dedication and work that you put into this.

My take, however, is

quote:

the defensive fronts we’ve faced are probably tougher than what most other teams in the SEC have faced.



Clemson - front 7 is legit

Tech - They run an odd front - plus they had two extra days (after a home game versus SLU) to rest up and prepare.

Florida - their defense is elite


Throw in Nuss’s injury (deep balls keep the safety’s honest), a new receiving corps, and a new Oline, and I’m shocked that we have had any success, nevertheless being 3-0.
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
31554 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 7:01 am to
Nice analysis. Maybe the sky isn’t falling after all, especially if Nuss recovers and starts getting the safeties off the LOS.
Posted by IntenseKid
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2014
3130 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 7:12 am to
As a data person, I love this and it certainly tells us a different story than we’ve been talking about.


Can you add the defense rank per opponent for each team or the average ?
Posted by Knuckle Checker
Member since Jan 2019
605 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 7:29 am to
While all this is true, BK hasn’t produced a decent running game (outside of Jayden Daniels) since he has been here. So I’m not getting my hopes up.
Posted by LSBoosie
Member since Jun 2020
16396 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 7:35 am to
This is great info, but I simply think there isn’t enough data to say anything other than LSU has a below average run game at moment. LSU should get a big time numbers boost this weekend though.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12527 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 8:01 am to
quote:

As a data person, I love this and it certainly tells us a different story than we’ve been talking about.

Can you add the defense rank per opponent for each team or the average ?

I considered that but there are a couple of issues:
1. I posted this from my phone and couldn’t do proper tables.
2. There’s a limited amount of data at this point, and teams have played dramatically different schedules.

As I mentioned in my post, most SEC teams have only played one P4 opponent. And that one P4 opponent may have played a gauntlet.. or they may have played that one SEC team + a G6 team + an FCS team.

As an example: Auburn is only giving up 2.03 yards per opponent rush attempt. On paper, they are the only SEC team with a better rushing defense than LSU. But they’ve only played Baylor, Ball State, and South Alabama. In their one P4 game, they held Baylor to 2.7 ypc. Is that good? Well.. let’s look at Baylor’s game logs. They rushed for 2.7 ypc against Auburn, 3.7 ypc against SMU, and 5.2 ypc against Samford. So.. I think Auburn’s rush defense is probably pretty good. But best in the SEC? I doubt it.

With that said, we can make an attempt at normalizing things here. Below are the same numbers I included in the OP for SEC teams’ yards per rush attempt vs. P4 opponents. In parenthesis, I’ve added those P4 opponents’ average defensive yards per rush attempt.. also against other P4 opponents:

1. Arkansas 5.97 (5.31)
2. Auburn 5.90 (4.90)
3. Missouri 5.55 (5.55)
4. Vanderbilt 5.51 (3.53 & 5.15)
5. Tennessee 5.01 (3.68 & 6.15)

6. Kentucky 4.65 (5.31)
7. Texas 4.49 (4.49)
8. Texas A&M 4.00 (3.74)
9. Ole Miss 3.84 (2.95 & 4.58)
10. LSU 3.64 (3.49 & 3.84)

11. Georgia 3.60 (3.04)
12. Oklahoma 3.45 (3.45)
13. Alabama 3.12 (3.00 & 3.27)
14. South Carolina 3.11 (3.33 & 5.15)

15. Florida 2.93 (2.34)
16. Mississippi State 2.20 (2.20)

So for example Arkansas rushed for 5.97 ypc in their one O4 game, against Ole Miss. The Ole Miss defense is averaging 5.31 ypc in games against Arkansas and Kentucky. Where SEC teams have played multiple P4 opponents (in bold again as in OP), I’ve included both opponents’ defensive averages.

There’s a flaw here though. Texas is averaging 4.49 ypc against P4 opponents. Their only P4 opponent was Ohio State, and Ohio State’s only P4 opponent was Texas. So Texas’ opponents also average 4.49 defensive ypc.. because that’s the only data point. This is the case for several of the teams on the list.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12527 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 8:14 am to
quote:

This is great info, but I simply think there isn’t enough data to say anything other than LSU has a below average run game at moment.

Yeah that’s basically my takeaway. I’m not saying I think the running game is secretly great. But I think it’s way too early to start calling our rushing offense the worst in the SEC, which is what drive me to look into this.

As of right now I think our rushing offense is probably middle-of-the-road to below average (among our SEC peers) which is about where we ranked last year. But I think there’s a reasonable chance we could see it move into the top half of the conference as we get more games under our belt.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12527 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 8:17 am to
quote:

While all this is true, BK hasn’t produced a decent running game (outside of Jayden Daniels) since he has been here. So I’m not getting my hopes up.

This statement could be rewritten as “BK hasn’t produced a decent running game other than 2 of the last 3 years.”
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
17542 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 8:20 am to
Sometimes context brings some clarity.

I find the notion espoused by many that we can't improve and get better to be short sighted. I mean anyone that did not expect this o-line to struggle early was not paying attention. I expect them to get better gradually as the year goes on.
Posted by Dotarian
Midwest
Member since Oct 2012
1682 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:41 am to
quote:

One last note.. Ole Miss is ranked dead last in the SEC for rushing defense (opponent rush yards per attempt) at 5.36. They are also dead last against P4 opponents at 5.31 yards per attempt. They gave up 5.5 ypc to Georgia State. If we still struggle against them.. that would worry me more than anything we’ve seen so far.
No question, this will be the defining element for the game against Ole Piss. We have to be able to run the ball to keep Kiffin's offense off the field. If our defense has to play 40 minutes of the game against the BlackRebelBearSharks then I worry about our chances.
Posted by A75CADDY
BatonRouge, LA
Member since Nov 2010
414 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:54 am to
Awesome analytics Sir. Thank you. I'd also argue that LSU's predictability also plays a huge part in the ineffectiveness in the run game. Carter pointed out that we run 9o percent of the time when we're in pistol. Variability in formation is the cornerstone of good offenses. We are not there yet. Also, we are guaranteed to run on second down after a 1st down completion.
Posted by redfishfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
5301 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 9:57 am to
quote:

Carter pointed out that we run 9o percent of the time when we're in pistol.


Offenses build tendencies on purpose so that in big moments they can break those tendencies.
Posted by Im4LSUnTN
Brentwood, TN
Member since Jul 2015
889 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 10:08 am to
The devil is always in the details. And your detailed analysis creates the clarity that leads me to be more optimistic about our running game. The Ole Miss game with be a “truth teller” about our running game effectiveness.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12527 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:26 am to
quote:

Also, we are guaranteed to run on second down after a 1st down completion.

Are we, though?

What if I told you that on 2nd down following a 1st down completion, LSU has actually passed 11 times and run only 5 times?

I think it’s easy to succumb to confirmation bias when it comes to playcalling. You see us complete a 7 yard pass then get stuffed on an inside zone and say “here we go again.” I’ve been there.
Posted by tiger11
Houston
Member since Mar 2004
3315 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:35 am to
Nice big picture view of the stats. The sky isnt falling...however...

without that long and late Durham run against Florida, our numbers against Florida are 24 rushes for 45 yards for 1.8 per carry....
Posted by Jojodaddy
Member since Dec 2015
522 posts
Posted on 9/17/25 at 11:42 am to
Take out the big run in garbage time at the end of the FL game and what do ya got?

Not to be a pessimist, but sometimes data shows you something you would not otherwise see, and sometimes the eye test is really what matters. For me, the eye test is glaring. We have no rhythm, no strategy that builds on itself, a lot of 0 yard or negative yard plays, and no play action. I really think the offense is well designed when you have a quarterback that gets you 50 to 60 yards per game as running supplement, but purely for RBs as only running threat it’s really lacking.

We need to see more Berry btw. 8-10 touches per game, not 2-3.



first pageprev pagePage 1 of 3Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram