Reports of over 20 young camp girls missing In TX floods

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TEXAS FLOOD: There are many questions about the tragic flash flood on the Guadalupe River late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The death toll is now over 50, including some children who were at Camp Mystic.

Here are some key points about the warning process...

*A flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County at 12:41a CT (just after midnight Thursday night). The watch mentioned isolated rain amounts of 10 inches, and stated "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." This followed a flash flood watch that was issued Thursday afternoon.

*A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14a CT For Kerr County, which mentioned "life threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers".

*A flash flood "emergency" was issued at 5:34a CT for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.

*NWS Austin/San Antonio had five on staff during the event; normally two would be on duty. Extra staffing was planned before the event started.

*This type of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River is nothing new. Similar events happened in 1998, 1978, 1935, and 1921. This year's event was related to deep moisture from a tropical system (Barry) that originated in the East Pacific and made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico, on June 29.

Social scientists will do much research on this in coming months and years. In my opinion one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful locally NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.

One takeaway is the importance of having a NOAA Weather Radio at every home, business, and any place where there are large number of people gathered (like a camp on a river). I would imagine cell service is very spotty along the Guadalupe where the camps were located. NWR does not use cell service and will wake you up. The alert is very loud, and can't be missed.

Again, I ask that you keep political rhetoric off the comment section here; left wing and right wing extremists are pushing false information and narratives are not close to the truth. Now is simply the time to support families that are suffering after the tragedy.

We will have a long discussion on this event with the WeatherBrains crew tomorrow night. In addition to the audio podcast you can watch it live as well on the WB YouTube Channel: YouTube.com/weatherbrains

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Kerrville mayor says he wasn’t aware of state resources that Gov. Abbott said were in place ahead of flooding

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Kerrville’s mayor said he was unaware of any help sent by the state to his community ahead of the flood, a day after Gov. Greg Abbott said the state had “assets, resources and personnel” in place two days before a flood tore through the Hill Country, claiming 120 lives as of Wednesday evening.

“The state was aware that there was a possible serious flooding event days in advance and pre-positioned assets and resources and personnel,” Abbott said at a Tuesday press conference. “We originally pre-positioned those assets, personnel and resources on Wednesday. Then, when greater clarity was discerned on Wednesday, we moved them closer and made sure we had adequate supplies going into Friday. We were ready.”

The Texas Division of Emergency Management “activated” state emergency response resources across West Texas and the Hill Country on July 2, according to a TDEM press release. TDEM cited “heavy rainfall with the potential to cause flash flooding” and encouraged Texans to prepare for flooded roads and monitor weather forecasts.

The state agency listed a number of state agencies and Texas A&M services “available to support local flood response operations,” such as rescue boat teams, helicopters, and personnel to monitor road conditions.

Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring said during a press conference on Wednesday that he wasn’t aware of any resources or personnel sent to his area, although the TDEM had people in Kerrville after the floods struck his city.

“I haven't seen the governor’s remarks ... I don't know what resources TDEM had in place at that time,” Herring said.

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NWS officials said they communicated directly with local officials the night of the flood, but Herring said he wasn’t aware of the flooding until around 5:30 a.m. when the city manager called him. By that time, floodwaters were already meters high and parts of Highway 39 were flooded, limiting evacuation efforts.

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“The losing teams are the ones that try to point out who's to blame,” Abbott said. "The championship teams are the ones that say, ‘Don't worry about it, man, we got this.’”

“The way winners talk is not to point fingers, they talk about solutions. What Texas is all about is solutions,” he later added.

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