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Longterm (20y) Treasury Bond Yields going up
Posted on 5/14/25 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 5/14/25 at 9:28 pm
Not huge move but I thought this week's news would point them lower
Is this a function of US increasing debt?
Is this a function of US increasing debt?
Posted on 5/15/25 at 4:37 am to thelawnwranglers
Curious about this as well. How high will it go? Kind of unsettling that it’s not coming down in spite of all the recent positive news.
This post was edited on 5/15/25 at 6:29 am
Posted on 5/15/25 at 6:17 am to Lsu05
I think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.
Posted on 5/15/25 at 7:50 am to bigjoe1
quote:
think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.
Listen to business stuff this am. Basically too soon to see impact of Tarriff in system so sounds like uncertainty like you said
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:29 am to bigjoe1
quote:
I think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.
We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:52 am to Enadious
Yes, inflation is probably here to stay for awhile. All roads lead to the Fed putting liquidity into the system soon. When they are gonna do it is the question.
Posted on 5/15/25 at 10:25 am to Enadious
quote:
We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.
I shouldn't have bought those ,20 years
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:45 pm to Hitman67
quote:which is terrible when you consider that’s printing money out of thin air
All roads lead to the Fed putting liquidity into the system soon.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:15 am to thelawnwranglers
Short interest at an ATH. People can be a bear at your own risk, but don't come crying back they get squeezed.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 3:27 pm to evil cockroach
quote:
which is terrible when you consider that’s printing money out of thin air
What the Fed has done has been because of what Congress has done. Without Congress creating hundreds of billions per year (and now over a trillion and a half per year) in deficit spending, the Fed wouldn't be having to buy anything. "Deficit spending" is just another term for "debt creation".
Posted on 5/16/25 at 5:08 pm to thelawnwranglers
Moodys downgraded US credik rating late today.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 7:26 am to Enadious
quote:
We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.
Hence why should have purchased gold like us crazies recommend after the Covid money printer went BRRR.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 11:51 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
Is this a function of US increasing debt?
lol no
Posted on 5/18/25 at 1:28 pm to Bard
quote:
the Fed wouldn't be having to buy anything.
The bond market needs buyers although would best if not the Fed. Foreign holders selling are likely pressuring prices raising yields. The international trade situation needs addressing but retaliation comes in many forms.
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