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Started By
Message
Ok. What are current odds of approval. Tulsi,rfk, patel Percentages,please
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:50 pm
Tulsi….75%
RFK……50%
Patel….90%
RFK……50%
Patel….90%
This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 4:52 pm
9
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:51 pm to tigerdude12
RFK will get in with JD tie breaker.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:53 pm to tigerdude12
Just got an alert saying RFK 76%
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:53 pm to tigerdude12
100% when Trump calls recess. 
These hearings don't mean shite. They are ceremonial and a courtesy. That's it. Advice and consent. frick em.
These hearings don't mean shite. They are ceremonial and a courtesy. That's it. Advice and consent. frick em.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:54 pm to tigerdude12
So you're saying there is a 33.75% chance that all three get consent from the senate?
I think it's higher odds.
Tulsi: 95%
Patel:90%
RFK: 75%
I think it's higher odds.
Tulsi: 95%
Patel:90%
RFK: 75%
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:54 pm to Rtowntiger
quote:what dem is going to vote to confirm him?
RFK will get in with JD tie breaker.
Collins, murkowski, McConnell and Cassidy are reportedly NOs. Fetterman was the most likely and odds he votes yes are down to 5%
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:54 pm to putt23
quote:
100% when Trump calls recess.
Those are different rules for this thread.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:55 pm to tigerdude12
quote:
Tulsi….75%
RFK……50%
Patel….90%
These are good estimates. Kennedy angers the most entrenched interests. My guess is that Gabbard and Patel get confirmed, while Kennedy does not.
Does anyone know if someone who the Senate votes down can still receive a recess appointment? Kennedy is the most important nominee to me.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:56 pm to GumboPot
quote:Tulsi odds are literally 50-50 on Kalshi rn
think it's higher odds.
Tulsi: 95%
This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 4:56 pm
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:56 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Fetterman was the most likely and odds he votes yes are down to 5%
I really hope there are a couple of Dems like Fetterman that will come through.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:56 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Tillis was a no on Pete and ended up voting 'yes'. Cassidy likes the Senatorial life. He knows his goose is cooked if he fricks this up. He'll vote yes.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:57 pm to putt23
quote:
100% when Trump calls recess.
I don't believe Trump has the unilateral power to actually do that.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:57 pm to GumboPot
quote:
So you're saying there is a 33.75% chance that all three get consent from the senate?
I think it's higher odds.
Tulsi: 95%
Patel:90%
RFK: 75%
How this isn't
Tulsi: 100%
Patel:100%
RFK: 100%
Is the greatest indictment on the poverty of the Republican party one can see.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:57 pm to SoFla Tideroller
quote:this is what we’re relying on. Cassidy should be getting flooded with calls from this board
Tillis was a no on Pete and ended up voting 'yes'. Cassidy likes the Senatorial life. He knows his goose is cooked if he fricks this up. He'll vote yes.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 4:58 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Those are different rules for this thread.
I get rustled while watching some of the hearings while working and then click on the thread and start hate typing.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:03 pm to tigerdude12
I haven’t watched Kennedy’s hearings, but for anyone on the fence looking to be swayed either way on Kash / Tulsi, all you have to go on after today is:
For Kash:
1. Wrote a book with mean stuff in it
2. Jan 6
3. Trump’s pardons were bad
And for Tulsi:
1. Wouldn’t use the word “traitor” to describe Snowden, who isn’t even really in the popular consciousness anymore
2. Thought the evidence regarding Assad having chemical weapons was not convincing enough to support a regime change operation (gee, what does that remind us of?)
If you’re a partisan, the above is enough to vote no on the D side. But if you’re an independent thinker from either party, it just isn’t. I’m actually surprised how unconvincing the Ds’ attacks were.
For Kash:
1. Wrote a book with mean stuff in it
2. Jan 6
3. Trump’s pardons were bad
And for Tulsi:
1. Wouldn’t use the word “traitor” to describe Snowden, who isn’t even really in the popular consciousness anymore
2. Thought the evidence regarding Assad having chemical weapons was not convincing enough to support a regime change operation (gee, what does that remind us of?)
If you’re a partisan, the above is enough to vote no on the D side. But if you’re an independent thinker from either party, it just isn’t. I’m actually surprised how unconvincing the Ds’ attacks were.
This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:26 pm to tigerdude12
Have senate confirmations become simply a vote of approval or disapproval of the opposite party?
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:29 pm to tigerdude12
Patel - 100%
RFK - 80%
Tulsi - 80%
RFK - 80%
Tulsi - 80%
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:30 pm to tigerdude12
The odds for each are either 100% or 0%. Any other guess is 100% wrong.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:32 pm to Undertow
I think it’s more accurately described as a split along Establishment / Non-Establishment lines. Rubio got confirmed 99-0, as an established Washington insider. These three are pretty far outside the Establishment, so I think it’s breaking by party simply because most Rs are too scared to get on Trump’s bad side, while the Ds can’t fathom people so outside the Establishment (the same thing happened with Hegseth).
This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 5:33 pm
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