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I cannot keep up with the media or the polls.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:46 pm
Who do you think will win between Trump and Harris? Not who you hope will win but who do you honestly feel will win?
I myself will vote for Trump but I have no idea who will win the election.
I myself will vote for Trump but I have no idea who will win the election.
19
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:48 pm to aTm boy
It's so scary sometimes that I almost want to take a break. The debate last week was awful. Mother and I both took ill afterwards, and that's not hyperbole.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:48 pm to aTm boy
go talk to the average american......its Don 9/10 times
don't believe the media wanting you to think this is close
don't believe the media wanting you to think this is close
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:50 pm to B2BWWchamps
quote:
.its Don 9/10 times
I only know of a handful of people that will vote Kamala. Then again, I generally don't associate with that sort of trash.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:52 pm to aTm boy
It’s very close, but there are trends in the data that are favorable to Harris…
It seems like a virtual tossup, but things could change, and Election Day could produce a surprising result that isn’t due to anything nefarious. Truman defeating Dewey was a shocker to most observers, but nobody claimed the race
was rigged.
It seems like a virtual tossup, but things could change, and Election Day could produce a surprising result that isn’t due to anything nefarious. Truman defeating Dewey was a shocker to most observers, but nobody claimed the race
was rigged.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:55 pm to B2BWWchamps
quote:Everyone in my bubble is voting for Trump. My wife is a Democrat but she is voting for Trump too. My main concern is for the swing states. The media makes them sound like they are edging toward Kamala.
go talk to the average american......its Don 9/10 times
don't believe the media wanting you to think this is close
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:55 pm to aTm boy
quote:
My main concern is for the swing states. The media makes them sound like they are edging toward Kamala.
quote:
don't believe the media wanting you to think this is close
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:56 pm to aTm boy
I feel Trump is going to win. This feels a little like 2008 in reverse. Economy down with an unpopular sitting president. Kamala kinda feels like when Palin came aboard. It created some enthusiasm, but as the few undecideds look at now compared to 2019 I think most will swing towards Trump. Many will be holding their noses and voting for him though.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:56 pm to VOR
quote:
It seems like a virtual tossup
quote:That's good news, thanks!
VOR
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:57 pm to aTm boy
If I was forced to bet, I'd bet Harris. That's appalling to me, but I think most people in this country are inundated with the lefts messages through schools, news media, entertainment media and social media. It's ubiquitous and takes effort to avoid.
This post was edited on 9/17/24 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:57 pm to VOR
How can you be so left leaning? What shaped your world view mate?
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:59 pm to VOR
quote:
It seems like a virtual tossup, but things could change, and Election Day could produce a surprising result that isn’t due to anything nefarious.
What would be a "surprising result" in a race that is a "virtual tossup"?
Posted on 9/17/24 at 1:59 pm to Jake88
Mate we must stand strong. Despite your checkered history of this I know you can come through.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:00 pm to aTm boy
quote:
I cannot keep up with the media or the polls.
Then stop looking at them.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:00 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Mother and I both took ill afterwards
Are you a woman posting as a dog, talking about your owner?
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:02 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Despite your checkered history of this I know you can come through
My history is not checkered. I DO NOT vote Democrat and I always vote, even in those mid April sneak a millage past the voter elections. Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:11 pm to aTm boy
Only 6 states really matter:
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia
I think Trump wins Nevada and Georgia. I think Harris wins Arizona and Michigan.
Trump MUST win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania to have a chance. Pennsylvania , because of the Philly machine, seems unlikely to go for Trump.
So...I think winning Wisconsin is a must for Trump in order to win the election.
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia
I think Trump wins Nevada and Georgia. I think Harris wins Arizona and Michigan.
Trump MUST win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania to have a chance. Pennsylvania , because of the Philly machine, seems unlikely to go for Trump.
So...I think winning Wisconsin is a must for Trump in order to win the election.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:12 pm to aTm boy
My guess is that they will find enough votes for Harris. It might take ten days, but, they will find them.
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:15 pm to aTm boy
If I had to predict right now, i would say Trump wins.
He wins Penn, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Probably wins Michigan.
Harris wins Georgia. Maybe North Carolina
He wins Penn, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Probably wins Michigan.
Harris wins Georgia. Maybe North Carolina
Posted on 9/17/24 at 2:18 pm to aTm boy
I'm less entrenched than most here about Trump's chances (meaning I'm more open to negative polling/predictions) but I'm probably equally invested in the ultimate outcome. My best guess:
I think the polls themselves favor Harris, but that doesn't tell the full story and you don't have to believe in a polling conspiracy to come to that conclusion. Nate Silver is probably the best example of this - he acknowledges the reality that Trump is likely to lose the popular vote but acknowledges the reality that fairly close national polling favoring Kamala is likely indicative of Trump winning the EC. Of course, state polls matter most, and state polls are notoriously unreliable.
State polls are pretty iffy in and of themselves if you're looking for reasons to feel Trump has it in the bag. But other metrics (polling averages compared to 2016 and 2020, registrations, mail in ballot numbers, etc.) provide some reason for optimism for Trump.
Right now, I think the landscape overall very slightly favors Trump. I'm hopeful that it'll increasingly tilt toward Trump, but I also expect more hijinks and drama along the way. I'm also hesitant to put too much faith into the limited data points from 2016 and 2020. We're dealing with new electoral maps and a lot of people moving around in the country, especially post-2020.
I think the polls themselves favor Harris, but that doesn't tell the full story and you don't have to believe in a polling conspiracy to come to that conclusion. Nate Silver is probably the best example of this - he acknowledges the reality that Trump is likely to lose the popular vote but acknowledges the reality that fairly close national polling favoring Kamala is likely indicative of Trump winning the EC. Of course, state polls matter most, and state polls are notoriously unreliable.
State polls are pretty iffy in and of themselves if you're looking for reasons to feel Trump has it in the bag. But other metrics (polling averages compared to 2016 and 2020, registrations, mail in ballot numbers, etc.) provide some reason for optimism for Trump.
Right now, I think the landscape overall very slightly favors Trump. I'm hopeful that it'll increasingly tilt toward Trump, but I also expect more hijinks and drama along the way. I'm also hesitant to put too much faith into the limited data points from 2016 and 2020. We're dealing with new electoral maps and a lot of people moving around in the country, especially post-2020.
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