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Yahoo Finance:The smart money is preparing for Trumpflation

Posted on 6/20/24 at 7:34 pm
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 7:34 pm
quote:

The average inflation rate when Donald Trump was president was 1.9%. During Joe Biden’s presidency, inflation has averaged 5.4%. Many voters think of Biden as the inflation guy.

Yet some prominent investors think future inflation will be worse if Trump wins the 2024 election than if Biden wins. In a June 18 analysis, Goldman Sachs argued that investors should buy gold if they’re worried about the inflationary impact of Trump’s economic agenda, should he become president.


quote:

Trump wants to impose a new 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 10% tariff on all other imports. Since tariffs are taxes paid by Americans, that would raise a typical family’s costs by $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Shoppers would be spending more for the same stuff, which is basically what inflation is.

Trump also thinks the White House should have more control over the Federal Reserve, a prospect that would alarm financial markets if it ever happened. The Fed has a tough enough job as it is trying to keep inflation and employment at optimal levels, and political interference from the White House could make that a lot harder.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-smart-money-is-preparing-for-trumpflation-200215069.html
Posted by jfw3535
South of Bunkie
Member since Mar 2008
5403 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 7:36 pm to
Orange man bad!!!!
Posted by WhiskeyThrottle
Weatherford Tx
Member since Nov 2017
6890 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

Since tariffs are taxes paid by Americans, that would raise a typical family’s costs by $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.


Isn't the premise of his tariffs that he's wanting to drop or significantly reduce the federal income tax? If the article author wasn't bias they might not leave that small but significant detail out.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4873 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 7:46 pm to
That’s not a realistic plan, it would never pass congress.

But if it did, they’d have to raise tariffs 133% to be able to fund the governments $2T spending habit. Yes, I agree the gov needs to be downsized and stop spending too much but if we did that AND raised tariffs then you’d be looking at a major recession with inflationary pressures. It’s just not a plausible scenario.
This post was edited on 6/20/24 at 7:47 pm
Posted by LoneStar23
USA
Member since Aug 2019
5781 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 8:37 pm to
TDS is such a strange disease
Posted by GeauxTigers123
Member since Feb 2007
3052 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 8:41 pm to
I don’t think his tariff plan will come to fruition.

TDS is a real thing. I’m as conservative as they come and I don’t care for trumps antics. But I can’t understand why people have such a hate for him.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
38248 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

Orange man bad!!!!
If you look at his stated policies, it would be safe to assume pretty big inflation.

I haven't seen anyone in this thread rebut the actual premise - outside of some preposterous idea that taxes will be severely cut.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47418 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 10:55 pm to
quote:

That’s not a realistic plan, it would never pass congress.

I mean I agree but what I saw was he wanted to replace income tax with tariffs.

So if the argument is the plan is too ridiculous to pass so why mention it? Then the whole thing shouldn’t be mentioned.

He’s not doing one without the other so it’s fair to say they should bring up that part of it.
This post was edited on 6/20/24 at 10:56 pm
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
38248 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 12:06 am to
quote:

He’s not doing one without the other so it’s fair to say they should bring up that part of it.
Kind of like how he wasn't building the wall unless Mexico paid for it?

Pretending there's any sort of coherence is ridiculous. He would do whatever he could get away with. It's not like he's going to just drop tariffs if he thinks he can't get a tax cut.
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
5510 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 4:39 am to
Asia to US Ocean freight rates are up 3-4x in a 45 day window with no signs of slowing down through the end of 2024.

Inflation is coming 12-18 months from now regardless of who is President.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91268 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 6:33 am to
quote:

Isn't the premise of his tariffs that he's wanting to drop or significantly reduce the federal income tax?


They’re not really related. He wants to do both, but he’d take one without the other. The tariffs can likely get done via EO while taxes are a different story altogether.
Posted by Twenty 49
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2014
20748 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:20 am to
In his past term, he pounded on the Fed to keep interest rates low (and he mailed out tons of stimulus checks with his signature on the letter).

Both of those did stimulate the economy. But now that we have inflation it will be interesting to see if he again calls for lower interest rates. I won't be surprised if he does, despite the likely negative effect on inflation, because he is a guy who has made his career through being in huge amounts of debt.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:21 am to
I don't really understand the comments in this thread. As a Trumper myself, I agree that inflation will be worse under Trump.

Have we already forgotten who was president when the decision was made to shut down the economy and give everyone free cash?

Have we already forgotten what president said they want 0% interest rates?

LINK

Have we already forgotten whos economic team is actively planning to devalue the dollar ?

LINK

All of this said, it's not going to be any better under Biden but the inflation spike under his presidency is a DIRECT result of decisions that were made under the Trump administration and the federal reserve.

I hate Biden and think he needs to be in a nursing home but it is disingenuous to put the inflation blame on him.

Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
7286 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:32 am to
quote:

That’s not a realistic plan, it would never pass congress.

But if it did, they’d have to raise tariffs 133% to be able to fund the governments $2T spending habit. Yes, I agree the gov needs to be downsized and stop spending too much but if we did that AND raised tariffs then you’d be looking at a major recession with inflationary pressures. It’s just not a plausible scenario.


So for this to actually work, you would still need some kind of tax on income earners at a certain threshold IMO.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92686 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:51 am to
quote:

Have we already forgotten whos economic team is actively planning to devalue the dollar ?



quote:

according to three former Trump administration officials granted anonymity to discuss confidential policy plans.


When will ppl learn that all of these msm ppl are full of shite

Every single article always has that verbiage
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
40080 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 8:14 am to
TD: "The rich asset owners think the economy is doing fine because their assets are being inflated while they make enough money to stomach rising prices. It's the lower and middle class who are getting smoked in this economy"

Also TD: "We should eliminate taxes the rich asset owners disproportionately pay and make up for it by increasing the costs of goods by 50%."
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 8:37 am to
quote:

When will ppl learn that all of these msm ppl are full of shite


Agree for the most part but what is your response to the other two points?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92686 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Agree for the most part but what is your response to the other two points?


Are you asking what my response is to the fake news from the msm?

Or what are the points you want a response to?
Posted by GrizzlyAlloy
Member since Aug 2020
2581 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 9:05 am to
quote:

That’s not a realistic plan, it would never pass congress.


Tariffs were how the US government was originally funded, long before an income tax.
Posted by frogtown
Member since Aug 2017
5615 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 9:18 am to
quote:

Tariffs were how the US government was originally funded, long before an income tax.


That was before the era of Big Government.

You could slap a 10% tariff on all imports and only raise $380 billion. That might fund the Federal Govt for a month or two.
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