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re: Our RPI is 33 with 2 SEC series left to play
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:03 pm to LSUJockStrap
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:03 pm to LSUJockStrap
quote:
Your excellent breakdown has me thinking that we will be left out
Me as well. If we are fighting UF for a spot i think they get in over us just comparing resumes
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:05 pm to CWILKS3
quote:
Florida legitimately might end the season with a sub .500 record which disqualifies them from the NCAAT
I didn't know this if it's true
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:06 pm to WigSplitta22
Even if Florida finishes with a record under .500?
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:06 pm to tigerbait1.6
quote:
Taking the series from T&M was huge. It most likely did save our season
It gave us a chance, for sure, but got to close it out strong, or it means nothing
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:07 pm to wheelz007
quote:
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
I think we are a weak 2 seed somewhere. It would be a dramatic turnaround.
Unfortunately, going 4-2 is a less than 50% probability, IMO. I'd say it's probably a 25% chance.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:14 pm to wheelz007
quote:
If
is the middle word in life…
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:39 pm to Alt26
quote:
I would say, today, LSU is behind Florida in the pecking order. Florida has the No. 1 SOS and 11th best non-conf. SOS. They've also won 10 games vs Q1 opponents
Florida is (10-14) 24-23 and playing UCF 23-24,as their last OOC and Kentucky 35-10 (18-6), and @Georgia 35-12 (13-11) in the last two series. They need to go 3-4 in those last 7 games to be .500. AS I understand it, If they get swept in one and lose the other series they cannot qualify for the NCAA tournament invitation without winning the SECT due to having a losing record. They are in a more precarious position than LSU in many ways. They could also easily end up 12-18 in the SEC.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:45 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:Yeah, but that was a road game against a consensus Top 5 team. Same as the Tennessee series. Would be a nice feather in your cap, doesn't hurt to lose.
Don't forget the Arky game 2 that went to extra innings after they blew the lead
The Florida and Vandy losses cause huge, seismic shifts. Win those games, and forget official SEC standings, the perception is that LSU is equal/better than those teams, so we'd not be scrambling and anxious about an invite. We'd be likely viewed the same as South Carolina, Miss State and currently UGA- very good teams in the mix to host a regional, just not quite as good as the top teams.
Vandy is currently on the very bottom edge of that category, slightly ahead of Bama. If we took those two games, we jump both those teams in the pecking order.
We will jump Bama if we take that series, but I don't think we can catch Vandy. They will have the better record in conference, and took the series at our place. So however they end up, we're gonna be just a tick behind, no matter what.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:55 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:
Go 4-6 and I don’t think what happens in Hoover matters
We really need to win 4 of 6 and win at least 1 in SEC tournament.
I think 5 more wins in the SEC and we win be at worst a 3 seed in an easy regional.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:57 pm to boweswi05
We also need to root for Texas, ULL, and Xavier.
Everyone else we played as well, but those are the ones that can help us the most by winning.
Everyone else we played as well, but those are the ones that can help us the most by winning.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 4:05 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Some years
it’s who will buy 15,000 tickets for a regional…
Posted on 5/6/24 at 4:12 pm to boweswi05
We can win 2 games in a regional…3? Less than 5% chance
Posted on 5/6/24 at 6:38 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:I will disagree 100% with this.
We can win 2 games in a regional…3? Less than 5% chance
We may not win Game 1-> game 2-> game 3; that's the one that corresponds to the 3rd game in the series, that we usually get run-ruled in.
But if we win 1 and ONE of 2/3, then we're at 1 loss, going into an elimination game against somebody's midweek pitchers. And with White, Jones and Travinski, game 4 is going to be a hard thing to put us away. In fact, the deeper we go, the more it shifts to our favor, because outside of Kling, our bats can dominate midweek guys and the bottom of the bullpen. And who knows, maybe Kling flips the switch next after Little has.
The short version is this: if you draw THIS LSU team in your regional, you want to knock them out quickly. You don't want them to win 2 of the first 3 games.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 6:46 pm to wheelz007
KPI has:
Bama - 18
LSU - 29
Ole Miss - 30
Bama - 18
LSU - 29
Ole Miss - 30
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:22 pm to wheelz007
Win these last 2 series and we are in IMO
Would much rather play our way into a 2 seed tho
Wouldnt you rather match up with a 3 seed?
Hell, depending on the match up we could throw off vs the 3 and save Holman/Jump for the marble/championship games
quote:
It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
Would much rather play our way into a 2 seed tho
Wouldnt you rather match up with a 3 seed?
Hell, depending on the match up we could throw off vs the 3 and save Holman/Jump for the marble/championship games
This post was edited on 5/6/24 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:49 pm to Honkus
quote:
Hell, depending on the match up we could throw off vs the 3 and save Holman/Jump for the marble/championship games
Oh how quickly you forget last season Honkus. No chance that happens
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:54 pm to Honkus
No way that’s is happening. He threw Skenes in game 1 vs Tulane who had one of the worst records (19-40) of all time of any team to make the ncaa tournament.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:05 pm to wheelz007
Bama has been really tough at home in the conference this season.
They have series wins against Tenn, South Carolina, and Arky. Only home series loss was 2/3 to A&M.
Winning that series will be a tall task for LSU, which has looked bad on the road this season outside of two games against an awful Mizzou squad.
They have series wins against Tenn, South Carolina, and Arky. Only home series loss was 2/3 to A&M.
Winning that series will be a tall task for LSU, which has looked bad on the road this season outside of two games against an awful Mizzou squad.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:20 pm to skullhawk
LSU's ability to sell out Alex Box is irrelevant in considering whether we make the NCAA Ty or not. Under no scenario would any Regional be hosted in BR.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 11:31 pm to skullhawk
quote:I think mindset of the team will come into play. We're playing to stay alive, and we just took a series against #1 (who won't drop below 5). Team probably feels like it turned a corner this weekend.
Bama has been really tough at home in the conference this season.
They have series wins against Tenn, South Carolina, and Arky. Only home series loss was 2/3 to A&M.
Winning that series will be a tall task for LSU, which has looked bad on the road this season outside of two games against an awful Mizzou squad.
We can't worry about game 3, it's just not something we will win this season. But games 1 and 2 have been competitive all year long.
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