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Bloomberg - A Million Simulations Shows US Debt Danger.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:23 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:23 am
quote:
Now, fresh analysis from Bloomberg Economics offers a sobering perspective. Throw in a whole bunch of different potential combinations of economic variables — some 1 million of them — and 88% of the time, the results show that the debt-to-GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path.
What’s unsustainable? The initial definition is one that sees the ratio go higher over the coming decade than the 97% figure recorded for last year, which was almost double where things were as recently as 2009.
And why is this issue pressing now? Concerns are escalating because the US has now logged years worth of solid growth, with the job market effectively at full employment. And yet the official Congressional Budget Office projections show the debt-to-GDP ratio hitting 116% in 2034 — an all-time high.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said last week that the US public debt situation “is more urgent than I can ever remember.” On Monday, Citadel founder Ken Griffin told investors in a letter to the hedge fund’s investors that US national debt is a “growing concern that cannot be overlooked.”
And recall Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell weighed in in unusual fashion earlier this year with his admonition that “it’s probably time, or past time” for politicians to address the fiscal situation.
LINK
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:26 am to CarRamrod
quote:
no shite....
Yeah my thoughts exactly. You can see it with people going out to eat that really shouldn’t 3-4 times a week. Then buy trucks they can’t afford and a house way out of their pay grade. It’s obviously a problem.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:37 am to Bunk Moreland
Seems like the only people not concerned with the debt, are the people who's job it is to be concerned about the debt.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:42 am to Bunk Moreland
File in the "no shite" column.
As for the "ran a million forecast simulations", I assume this is a poorly written way of saying they ran a Monte Carlo simulation out to 1,000,000 iterations.
As for the "ran a million forecast simulations", I assume this is a poorly written way of saying they ran a Monte Carlo simulation out to 1,000,000 iterations.
quote:
Throw in a whole bunch of different potential combinations of economic variables — some 1 million of them — and 88% of the time, the results show that the debt-to-GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 9:50 am to Bunk Moreland
Seriously?
Bloomberg had to run a million fricking sim models just to see that our spending is unsustainable?
Any second grader with some modicum of common sense can clearly see that... yet the American sheeple will still insist that this is "just transitory" because that's what the talking box told them.
Bloomberg had to run a million fricking sim models just to see that our spending is unsustainable?
Any second grader with some modicum of common sense can clearly see that... yet the American sheeple will still insist that this is "just transitory" because that's what the talking box told them.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:01 am to Bunk Moreland
Why are, as a nation and society, plummeting head first and unstoppable into the libtard abyss on every level .... economically, societally, philosophically ... it's gonna be a rough and dark landing.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:04 am to Bunk Moreland
None of the Presidential candidates mention the debt/deficit. It's like it isn't there.
Fricking pathetic.
Fricking pathetic.
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 10:07 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:05 am to Bunk Moreland
We've been trying to tell them this for years.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:07 am to Bunk Moreland
Thanks Bloomberg! Real up to date and insightful!
Now write an article on the dot com bubble and how loads of subprime mortgages could cause economic problems!
Now write an article on the dot com bubble and how loads of subprime mortgages could cause economic problems!
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:14 am to Bunk Moreland
Repeat after me. The crooked politicians have stolen the money (including, but not limited to Social Security). When there was no more money to steal, they simply printed some more money. When the printing money scheme was creating hyperinflation they did this....
Having said that, the crash will not be pretty. Get out of the big cities while you're able.
81 million votes
Having said that, the crash will not be pretty. Get out of the big cities while you're able.
81 million votes
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 10:21 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:26 am to WhiskeyThrottle
Voters dont care, we are already into uncharted waters and no one will do a thing until were off the cliff.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:11 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
What’s unsustainable?
They pose the question and do not actually answer it.
Where does this end? Total economic collapse?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:15 am to TigerAxeOK
quote:No. Ots been obvious to anyone that know how compound interest works since 2013.
Bloomberg had to run a million fricking sim models just to see that our spending is unsustainable?
The number of people suing terms like “unexpectedly” when it blow up will be most interesting. And basically all of them wil be lying.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:18 am to scrooster
quote:
the libtard abyss on every level
Trump spent Trillions as well. Recklessly and for no reason.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:47 am to Bunk Moreland
The political solution is austerity. Almost certainly will not happen.
The likely solution is drastic inflation
The likely solution is drastic inflation
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:51 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Voters dont care
Because most are idiots and only live for today.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:54 am to joshnorris14
quote:Have a look what happens when you merely suggest raising the SS age by 2 years.
The political solution is austerity. Almost certainly will not happen.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:57 am to CarRamrod
quote:
no shite....
Water is apparently wet as well!
Started after the 1980 election with Ronnie trying to rebound quickly from the oil shocks that killed Nixon, Ford, and Carter. Every POTUS since has piled on except year 8 of Clinton. Easier to distract with other issues like ...
Abortion
Guns
Border
Posted on 4/3/24 at 12:00 pm to ronricks
Can you contain your tds for at least a day?
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