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Started By
Message
Bears and bulls
Posted on 6/15/23 at 9:43 am
Posted on 6/15/23 at 9:43 am
An observation and a poll..
Generally speaking; bears come out of the woods after the market has sold off 15-20%
Bulls charge after the market recovers.
Upvote if you’re bullish on the S&P (flat to up) over next three months. Downvote if bearish (down).
S&P is right at 4,385 here on the morning of 6/15. I’ll bump this on 9/15.
Generally speaking; bears come out of the woods after the market has sold off 15-20%
Bulls charge after the market recovers.
Upvote if you’re bullish on the S&P (flat to up) over next three months. Downvote if bearish (down).
S&P is right at 4,385 here on the morning of 6/15. I’ll bump this on 9/15.
14
Posted on 6/15/23 at 10:04 am to LSUcam7
I think the Bulls have been here even back in Oct 2022 when the market was tanking and the bears were screaming crash. Had Tech/Growth not caught fire the last few months then would have been alot lower than we are now. I say flat for next few months then back down around 3900/3800 come sept. I have no clue how we end the year though. 
Posted on 6/15/23 at 10:13 am to FLObserver
quote:
Bulls have been here
That’s true. There were a few.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 10:31 am to LSUcam7
What I would like to know is the price point the Covid bears/chicken littles of the board got out and the price point they got back in, or if they are still on the sidelines.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 10:38 am to Joshjrn
quote:
got out and the price point they got back in, or if they are still on the sidelines.
I am sure they timed it perfectly
Posted on 6/15/23 at 10:49 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
I am sure they timed it perfectly
Oh I have no doubt that it will be like fricking magic
Posted on 6/15/23 at 11:10 am to LSUcam7
This is how people get “frozen” in fear and never get back in the market after cashing out.
We have this surprise market run that every analyst says shouldn’t happen, and people keep “waiting” for it to go back down to get fully invested.
Who knows what happens next, but this is why you stay invested for the long term.
We have this surprise market run that every analyst says shouldn’t happen, and people keep “waiting” for it to go back down to get fully invested.
Who knows what happens next, but this is why you stay invested for the long term.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 11:15 am to Joshjrn
Actually the only bear still posting on the money board is bard. The rest of them have disappeared. Couldnt imagine dumping everything even great companies just to try and time getting in at a lower price. Am i buying companies that have run up? not really but am buying great companies that tank for no great reason. For instance yesterday UNH dropped big i added some shares.
This post was edited on 6/15/23 at 11:23 am
Posted on 6/15/23 at 11:40 am to FLObserver
Can’t pay for internet/cell bills when your long puts lose 98%.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 11:52 am to LSUcam7
quote:Lots of us just keep investing in funds/ETFs each week/month/year without even looking at what the market is doing. Time in the market >> timing the market.
Bulls have been here That’s true. There were a few.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 12:09 pm to LSUcam7
I don't think it will be Bull or Bear, just stagnant overall with minor ups and downs.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 12:10 pm to LSUcam7
for me, the S&P has defied logic over the last 3 years, so I am not sure why it won't continue.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 4:23 pm to Shamoan
The past three years I can come to grips with. But the last three weeks or so… the last three days?! 
And yeah, I also wonder about the folks who spoke about going all cash for uh… “interesting” reasons. Unless they were knocking on the door to retirement when they did that, the younger ones anyway really screwed the pooch (as it seems now).
And yeah, I also wonder about the folks who spoke about going all cash for uh… “interesting” reasons. Unless they were knocking on the door to retirement when they did that, the younger ones anyway really screwed the pooch (as it seems now).
Posted on 6/15/23 at 6:46 pm to LSUcam7
S&P has a 100+ year history of always going up over time. No one can time the market. Most people who try to time it get wrecked.
My friend cashed out and is still convinced some huge crash is coming. Been trying to convince him to get back in before it's back to highs yet again. Oh well. People have to learn on their own.
My friend cashed out and is still convinced some huge crash is coming. Been trying to convince him to get back in before it's back to highs yet again. Oh well. People have to learn on their own.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 7:06 pm to SM1010
quote:
S&P has a 100+ year history of always going up over time. No one can time the market. Most people who try to time it get wrecked. My friend cashed out and is still convinced some huge crash is coming. Been trying to convince him to get back in before it's back to highs yet again. Oh well. People have to learn on their own.
Someone close to me did that during the Obama presidency. Was certain we were headed for a double dip crash that never came. Lost his arse.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 7:42 pm to SM1010
Did you happen to catch the character running commercials on the financial news networks beginning about three months ago? I don’t recall his name. The one who opened with “coming market chaos like never seen before”, “you only have 90 days to move your money”, “I’ve been on Wall Street for decades”, “I’m too rich to care what people think”… blah, blah, blah. I guess he was pimping a book or a paid subscription website.
Well, time’s up. The market hasn’t crashed - done just the opposite. The government didn’t default on its debts. No zombie apocalypse. Not even a single mothership has popped down to pick up the first bunker dweller.
Jokes aside, I wonder how many people fell for that con?
Well, time’s up. The market hasn’t crashed - done just the opposite. The government didn’t default on its debts. No zombie apocalypse. Not even a single mothership has popped down to pick up the first bunker dweller.
Jokes aside, I wonder how many people fell for that con?
Posted on 6/16/23 at 4:17 am to LSUcam7
I've been aggressively bullish and will be until S&P is hitting 4500 (not far off now ), then will ease my foot off the gas as we wait for Q2 earnings.
regardless, though, I expect volatility to remain low so a melt up is likely in the coming months, but earnings will obviously have to support that higher upside to 4700-ATH. right now, you can argue there's not much more upside based on current earnings estimates.
I came into 2023 pretty neutral on the S&P, but glad things have changed and we've achieved some great gains! I can't help, but laugh at analysts who are still bearish and fearmongering. it's sad for them.
), then will ease my foot off the gas as we wait for Q2 earnings. regardless, though, I expect volatility to remain low so a melt up is likely in the coming months, but earnings will obviously have to support that higher upside to 4700-ATH. right now, you can argue there's not much more upside based on current earnings estimates.
I came into 2023 pretty neutral on the S&P, but glad things have changed and we've achieved some great gains! I can't help, but laugh at analysts who are still bearish and fearmongering. it's sad for them.
Posted on 6/16/23 at 4:26 am to SM1010
quote:
My friend cashed out and is still convinced some huge crash is coming. Been trying to convince him to get back in before it's back to highs yet again. Oh well. People have to learn on their own.
thank your friend for his service. investors like him are part of the reason for the beginning of this bull run. everyone who wanted to sell, already sold. sellers were exhausted.
Posted on 6/16/23 at 6:10 am to LSUcam7
As someone about to begin doing this full time, IDGAF if it goes up down or sideways. I can make money in all three. That being said today will be a day of reckoning with quad witching unclenching an insane amount of gamma and JHEQX collar roll. It may not be today or even Monday, but in the next week we’ll see the real order flow be revealed. Right now it’s entirely dealer hedging that’s taken us where we are as institutions take advantage of the JPM collar and get short positioned.
Posted on 6/16/23 at 6:51 am to BourbonDad
quote:
IDGAF if it goes up down or sideways. I can make money in all three.
Did you do anything short term or are you waiting until next week?
I just did a Jul 21 445/440 SPY put spread yesterday. SPY RSI is almost at 80.
This post was edited on 6/16/23 at 6:57 am
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