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re: I'm not as pessimistic as others, there are reasons why you wouldn't pitch Skenes today..

Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:44 am to
Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
4778 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:44 am to
quote:

This means LSU would have used relievers versus Tulane because no way does Floyd go 9 versus them


In your own words, NOBODY can predict this.

While Skenes was amazing yesterday, I would have bet a few bucks that Floyd would have won as well. Floyd could have completed the game yesterday too. I’m certainly not saying he would have, but he’s made it further in games than Skenes before yesterday. Maybe Floyd doesn’t go the distance, maybe he does. Either way, Oregon State has MUCH better bats that we need to face today. Let’s hope Floyd is up to the task. I think he is but everyone one of us would be lying if we didn’t admit we’d prefer Skenes today over Floyd.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:51 am to
quote:

OSU is a contact teams like TAMU meaning they will run his pitch count up.


What does this even mean? They swing at the ball and put in play? News flash, everyone tries to do that
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:52 am to
quote:

While Skenes was amazing yesterday, I would have bet a few bucks that Floyd would have won as well. Floyd could have completed the game yesterday too. I’m certainly not saying he would have, but he’s made it further in games than Skenes before yesterday. Maybe Floyd doesn’t go the distance, maybe he does. Either way, Oregon State has MUCH better bats that we need to face today. Let’s hope Floyd is up to the task. I think he is but everyone one of us would be lying if we didn’t admit we’d prefer Skenes today over Floyd.


It’s amazing how simple it is.
Posted by Tiger1988
Houston
Member since May 2016
24459 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:57 am to
quote:

While Skenes was amazing yesterday,
really? He got hit harder than he has all year but as with baseball there were some amazing plays behind him which LSU hasn’t really flashed all year.
Floyd wouldn’t get all the swings and misses. That game was 2 plays from being a 1-2 run game and Skenes out in 6-7. That catch by Jobert was massive. That’s a run and more hitters are going to bat.
quote:

In your own words, NOBODY can predict this.

I also said I would take a shot -which was to explain the logic. Your logic is a belief
quote:

I would have bet a few bucks that Floyd would have won as well. Floyd could have completed the game yesterday too.
no way does that happen. More pressure on the defense because he doesn’t get the Ks and they would have scored more runs off of him. LSUs hitting was not “great” yesterday.

quote:

everyone one of us would be lying if we didn’t admit we’d prefer Skenes today over Floyd.

THIS ISNT ONLY ABOUT 1 game.
Posted by Tiger1988
Houston
Member since May 2016
24459 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:59 am to
quote:

What does this even mean? They swing at the ball and put in play? News flash, everyone tries to do that

Go back to football.
It means they foul balls off and grind out hits to run the pitch count up. That is what it means. Which is why he wouldn’t have lasted no more than his usual 6 MAYBE.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39661 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:21 am to
quote:

All that matters is their option on what gives the best chance to win. frick results

I am open minded to why CJJ started Skenes, but I would not have done it. You, however, are wrong when you imply that results matter in evaluating the decision. They do not. Results are not known when the decision is made, so they cannot be used in evaluating it.

An example: If I decide to bet everything I own that Tulane will win the CWS, that would be a stupid decision. If Tulane went on to win it, it would still have been a stupid decision. See?

Now, I’m not arguing against CJJ’s decision. After watching Tulane, and hearing CJJ’s explanation, his decision makes more sense. Skenes had his worst outing last week on 5 days rest, and CJJ did not want to put him back in that position for the Supers. Tulane is obviously a much improved team, and they could have beaten us - CJJ did not “waste” Skenes on Tulane. Also, CJJ didn’t say it, but OSU is low on pitching, and we should pound them today. Maybe Tulane in game one was our toughest challenge in this regional.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 7:22 am
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
261638 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:24 am to
Rantards are retards

If they knew what was best they'd be coaching. We can win the entire thing and these nerds would still claim they were right.

Coaches understand things these frickers do not understand.
Posted by Jeff
Biloxi, MS
Member since Jan 2004
2223 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:26 am to
Two thoughts on the best and worst case scenarios. Pitching Floyd for a complete game win on Friday was the best case scenario possible, but I believe everyone would agree that was simply not going to happen. We probably would have won, but other arms would have been needed and we might have lost. Pitching Skenes on Friday avoided the worst case scenario, losing the first game and very likely not advancing out of the regional. I believe everyone would agree LSU winning Friday with Skenes was a lock. I believe Jay chose the lock after weighing the the percentages of how we might do against OSU’s or SH’s available pitchers vs how either of those teams might do against Floyd. Getting to 2-0 was the obvious goal and using Skenes and Floyd was the plan regardless of the order they were used. I also don’t buy the argument about Tulane’s overall record. They were coming in hot, winning their tournament, while we were limping into this regional. I’m sure NO ONE dreamed Tulane could win their tournament ahead of time. There was risk involved saving Skenes. We will NEVER know what would have happened had Jay saved him. To argue it is ridiculous.
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
3750 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:29 am to
Biggest reason is that he pitched yesterday.
Posted by Geaux Guy
Member since Dec 2018
5348 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:30 am to
Perfectly OK with Skenes pitching. To me, it’s saying ‘we’re done tinkering around and are planning to blow right through this regional’.

Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:09 am to
quote:

It means they foul balls off and grind out hits to run the pitch count up. That is what it means.


Oh, seems like you’d want you better pitcher going against the better hitting team.

quote:

Which is why he wouldn’t have lasted no more than his usual 6 MAYBE.
How many will Floyd last? I don’t understand how this is a hard concept to grasp lol. It why every 1 seed holds their ace for the second game.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77623 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:10 am to
Definitely not every 1 seed does that
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:13 am to
quote:

Definitely not every 1 seed does that


If you have a true ace you do.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77623 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:14 am to
Wveey year a couple teams do it. Usually west coast teams it seems.

Stanford also started their ace this year
Posted by Lptigerfan
Jeff Davis Parish
Member since May 2015
598 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:14 am to
Do we know if LSU (if they win the regional) would automatically get a fri-Sum Super Regional schedule? Don't they give some Thurs -Sat Supers? What if they waited to pitch Skenes on Sat and we got a Thurs -Sat Super? Would Skenes be able to throw game 1 ?
Posted by PigDog33
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2021
768 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:32 am to
quote:

“It didn’t happen my way so it’s the wrong way!!” This is everyone who didn’t want Skenes pitching


This ain’t that. Most anti-logical decision made by any coach in lsu baseball history.

Just look at probability of beating Tulane with Floyd + beating OSU with skenes
Vs
Probability of beating OsU with Floyd assuming skenes gaurantees you victory over Tulane.
80% chance of going 2-0 vs 50-60% chance of going 2-0?
It’s not even close. Anyone arguing otherwise doesn’t get it.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 8:33 am
Posted by supersaints9
Colleyville,Tx
Member since Dec 2009
14189 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Even if we win, it wasn’t done my way!!!!”


Did you doubt that LSU wouldn’t beat fricking Tulane with Skenes on the mound? You sound fricking INSANE!
Posted by Jeff
Biloxi, MS
Member since Jan 2004
2223 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:37 am to
How did you arrive at your percentages?
Posted by supersaints9
Colleyville,Tx
Member since Dec 2009
14189 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:41 am to
quote:

Maybe Tulane in game one was our toughest challenge in this regional.


Posted by PigDog33
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2021
768 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:42 am to
quote:

How did you arrive at your percentages?


Implied % based off odds. It was -150 earlier now -160 = 61.54% to be exact.

80% with skenes is my made up percentage but I’m sticking with it lol
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