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re: I'm not as pessimistic as others, there are reasons why you wouldn't pitch Skenes today..
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:03 pm to subotic
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:03 pm to subotic
quote:
Well yeah. That's what I'm saying. It's completely academic and hypothetical if the results are the same. We don't have the results yet so how can we attempt to objectively analyze anything at this point?
Two phases of analysis
Before first pitch game 1.
After last pitch game 2.
First phase, data based
Second phase, result based
But the result may not negate the utility of phase 1 before first pitch
1
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:05 pm to 13
quote:
I believe I understand arguments for both situations but I’m interested in why you believe it wrong regardless of outcome.
Oregon St displayed yesterday that they are a stronger offensive team than Tulane. Oregon St’s two most likely starters have better statistics than Dylan Carmouche against better competition and Oregon St has a better bullpen than Tulane. Oregon St was clearly the more dangerous opponent. Against that backdrop, playing the percentages tells you to pitch Skenes in Game 2. Baseball is inherently unpredictable, so the best percentage play may not produce the desired outcome. That’s why you don’t necessarily judge a decision based on outcome. On average, though, the expected outcomes point to Skenes in Game 2. If both are capable of beating Oregon St, it doesn’t matter. Same if neither is expected to beat Oregon St. Where it matters is if Floyd materially impacts the likelihood of beating Oregon St. Some are arguing that it was the right decision because Floyd wouldn’t have beaten Tulane. If true, he’s not likely to beat Oregon St either. Ultimately, the only thing that matters is going 2-0. Skenes against Oregon St optimizes that likelihood.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:06 pm to GoldenAge
quote:
The pitching staff you’re considering an automatic win with on Friday is the same one you’re claiming dooms us Saturday
post more, this guy gets it
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:07 pm to 13
quote:
So if PS doesn’t start Friday, but instead starts Saturday and we don’t win the regional, would it still be the right call?
Just imagining the grin on your face as you typed this, and also thinking how little you know about percentages and process because the answer is unequivocally the opposite of what you think lol
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:07 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Oregon St displayed yesterday that they are a stronger offensive team than Tulane. Oregon St’s two most likely starters have better statistics than Dylan Carmouche against better competition and Oregon St has a better bullpen than Tulane. Oregon St was clearly the more dangerous opponent. Against that backdrop, playing the percentages tells you to pitch Skenes in Game 2. Baseball is inherently unpredictable, so the best percentage play may not produce the desired outcome. That’s why you don’t necessarily judge a decision based on outcome. On average, though, the expected outcomes point to Skenes in Game 2. If both are capable of beating Oregon St, it doesn’t matter. Same if neither is expected to beat Oregon St. Where it matters is if Floyd materially impacts the likelihood of beating Oregon St. Some are arguing that it was the right decision because Floyd wouldn’t have beaten Tulane. If true, he’s not likely to beat Oregon St either. Ultimately, the only thing that matters is going 2-0. Skenes against Oregon St optimizes that likelihood.
This guy gets it
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:09 pm to gabzooks
So what data are we using for "phase 1?" Just wins and losses?
Are Jay's conclusions not subjective just like yours and mine?
Are Jay's conclusions not subjective just like yours and mine?
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:10 pm to subotic
quote:
So what data are we using for "phase 1?" Just wins and losses?
Baseball is probably the most data rich sport there is
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:14 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
If both are capable of beating Oregon St, it doesn’t matter.
Following this line of thought, Jay has other variables to consider if he has this confidence. If we advance 3-0 and Skenes is on schedule, that is objectively a better situation heading into super regionals. Results matter more than anything.
The opinion that Skenes gives us the best chance to win game 2 is basically universal, but that's not all we have to consider.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:15 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Oregon St’s two most likely starters have better statistics than Dylan Carmouche against better competition and Oregon St has a better bullpen than Tulane.
who do you have as their most likely starts?
I dont think they have anyone left who will go more than 2-3 innings.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:16 pm to gabzooks
quote:
Baseball is probably the most data rich sport there is
Not an answer.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:16 pm to subotic
quote:
Are Jay's conclusions not subjective just like yours and mine?
Jay went against what season-long data (for Tulane and osu) suggested
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:19 pm to subotic
Do I have to spell out what I think you already know?
There’s a season full of pitching and hitting and defense and all-types of scenario stats for both Tulane and osu. There
There’s a season full of pitching and hitting and defense and all-types of scenario stats for both Tulane and osu. There
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:21 pm to GoldenAge
quote:
The pitching staff you’re considering an automatic win with on Friday is the same one you’re claiming dooms us Saturday.
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone go so far as to say LSU is doomed against Oregon St, only that the likelihood of winning is diminished. Using Skenes against Tulane was overkill. There comes a point at which the strength of the starting pitcher against Tulane was good enough to create an expectation of victory with as much certainty as the uncertainty of baseball will allow. Pitching Skenes vs Floyd in that game had diminishing returns. It only marginally impacted the likelihood of victory. It was a waste of the excess pitching value Skenes brings to the table. That would have been maximized in the process of maximizing the likelihood of beating Oregon St by pitching him in Game 2.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:22 pm to gabzooks
quote:
season-long data
Well this is a flawed premise as this is not a computer simulation. Recent trends matter, such as OSU's top 2 arms being unavailable.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:23 pm to gabzooks
quote:
Do I have to spell out what I think you already know?
There’s a season full of pitching and hitting and defense and all-types of scenario stats for both Tulane and osu. There
I'm sure Jay threw all that shite out the window and didn't consider any of it.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:24 pm to subotic
quote:
Well this is a flawed premise as this is not a computer simulation. Recent trends matter, such as OSU's top 2 arms being unavailable.
Fine
But surely you understand why some might give significant weight to season data and dislike the skenes start? Or you just like to argue to argue?
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:30 pm to subotic
quote:
Following this line of thought, Jay has other variables to consider if he has this confidence. If we advance 3-0 and Skenes is on schedule, that is objectively a better situation heading into super regionals. Results matter more than anything. The opinion that Skenes gives us the best chance to win game 2 is basically universal, but that's not all we have to consider.
If Johnson is that confident in victory today with Floyd on the mound, then setting up for Supers makes sense. I just don’t think the data or LSU’s recent offensive struggles justify that degree of confidence.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:30 pm to gabzooks
quote:
But surely you understand why some might give significant weight to season data and dislike the skenes start?
Of course I understand, I disliked the Skenes start myself. I guess I just don't possess the hubris to think my analysis must be correct because it's the popular opinion.
quote:
Or you just like to argue to argue?
Weak.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:31 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
If Johnson is that confident in victory today with Floyd on the mound, then setting up for Supers makes sense. I just don’t think the data or LSU’s recent offensive struggles justify that degree of confidence.
Personally I agree with you completely. But Jay deserves a pat on the arse if we advance 3-0.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:32 pm to drizztiger
So many posters on tRant who KNOW what the right decision is regarding pitching Skenes on Friday or Saturday. I dare say none of these posters had all the information that CJJ had that factored into his decision. He was in a much better position than any of the posters to make the call. But us posters are so smart that we can make a better decision with less information. None of us KNOW if it was the right decision, we just have opinions based on our limited knowledge of the factors. Personally, I'd have pitched him today...based on my LIMITED information. Go Tigers!!!
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