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Started By
Message
Is the bear market over?
Posted on 4/3/23 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 4/3/23 at 8:40 pm
Is inflation going to lift the market or have we not seen the bottom?
11
Posted on 4/3/23 at 8:57 pm to Upperaltiger06
I love bama should be here shortly to let you know the pain is just around the corner. 
To answer your question no one knows. There will probably be some nice runs if the Inflation number continues to drop but still have yet to really see it on food and energy prices.
I really bought stocks a few months back but still dont want to burn thru all powder if we get a turn south. So hanging on to about 15% cash right now with a few buys on good companies if they have a drop on bad news.
To answer your question no one knows. There will probably be some nice runs if the Inflation number continues to drop but still have yet to really see it on food and energy prices. I really bought stocks a few months back but still dont want to burn thru all powder if we get a turn south. So hanging on to about 15% cash right now with a few buys on good companies if they have a drop on bad news.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 9:01 pm to FLObserver
Seems like a good and reasonable strategy for an investor. 
And even for long only traders, this year should have provided some very healthy returns, as long as they were playing with stocks in “real” companies.
And even for long only traders, this year should have provided some very healthy returns, as long as they were playing with stocks in “real” companies.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 9:02 pm to Upperaltiger06
Just keep buying
Posted on 4/3/23 at 9:11 pm to Upperaltiger06
It generally takes around 12 months to really impact the economy, meaning the March numbers should begin to show results from the Fed's first hikes last year. At the same time we're seeing OPEC and the Russians cutting oil production by ~3.66 million barrels per day.
One of the big signals the Fed is looking for to know when to pause/pivot on rate hikes is for Unemployment to start going up. Job creation has remained stubbornly strong so Unemployment has continued to remain low.
If March Unemployment is up again and CPI is down more, we can expect the bulls to gain steam as that will likely confirm a pause to rate hikes in May.
The question right now is how large will be the cumulative effect of all those rate hikes as we continue to move forward, combined with the still high food prices and fuel prices which are pretty much guaranteed to rise right as the peak travel season closes in?
I think there's still some room for bullishness through the summer, depending on what the Fed does after May.
One of the big signals the Fed is looking for to know when to pause/pivot on rate hikes is for Unemployment to start going up. Job creation has remained stubbornly strong so Unemployment has continued to remain low.
If March Unemployment is up again and CPI is down more, we can expect the bulls to gain steam as that will likely confirm a pause to rate hikes in May.
The question right now is how large will be the cumulative effect of all those rate hikes as we continue to move forward, combined with the still high food prices and fuel prices which are pretty much guaranteed to rise right as the peak travel season closes in?
I think there's still some room for bullishness through the summer, depending on what the Fed does after May.
This post was edited on 4/3/23 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 4/3/23 at 9:25 pm to Upperaltiger06
People talking about the end of the dollar and buying gold on here, it’s a sure sign.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 11:39 pm to Dawgfanman
Yes. The bottom of the bear market was 10/13.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 5:08 am to Upperaltiger06
For now, we are bull. Later, if recession is at the door, we turn bear.
I see the S&P could easily rally to 4400-4500 before the Fed pivots--a rally based on hope, too many puts, and sell side analysts inflating forward PE.
Dec. 2021 - Dec. 2022, actual earnings declined 11%.
Current 2023E forecasts 11% earnings growth (meanwhile we have investment bankers saying earnings will again decline this year). 2024E forecasts another 11% growth to $245. If the market believes those numbers, 4400-4500 S&P forward PE would be about 18, which is not unreasonable.
FOMO would be in high gear at that stage and you'll see calls for ATH very soon all over the place. That is when we short.
Disclaimer: another unforeseen volatility event is certainly not out of the question and with VIX being crushed, it only makes it more likely.
I see the S&P could easily rally to 4400-4500 before the Fed pivots--a rally based on hope, too many puts, and sell side analysts inflating forward PE.
Dec. 2021 - Dec. 2022, actual earnings declined 11%.
Current 2023E forecasts 11% earnings growth (meanwhile we have investment bankers saying earnings will again decline this year). 2024E forecasts another 11% growth to $245. If the market believes those numbers, 4400-4500 S&P forward PE would be about 18, which is not unreasonable.
FOMO would be in high gear at that stage and you'll see calls for ATH very soon all over the place. That is when we short.
Disclaimer: another unforeseen volatility event is certainly not out of the question and with VIX being crushed, it only makes it more likely.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 8:05 am to Upperaltiger06
The Fed Res is doing what they said they would do. The best "true" inflation report that I have found is [link=(this one)]https://truflation.com/[/link].
We saw a spike in the last two weeks but overall we are down a lot and the yield curve is starting to price in a rate cut in July (this changes almost daily) while Powell says there are no plans for a rate cut.
Inflation isn't at 2% but it's improving fast. Fasted than I thought possible.
As far as the stock market goes, it 100% depends on the federal reserve and what they do. This is not a free market.
If the feds don't cut rates like the bond markets are anticipating, we go down. If they do cut rates, it might moon.
Again, this is not how a free market is supposed to work.
I am not investing in the stock market.
I'm paying off balloon loans on property that are coming due since rates are crazy high.
I have been buying Bitcoin
I am diversifying away from USD buying property in Venezuela as I see them as the guarantee winners in this battle between BRICS and the G7 (I'll share more on this if there is any interest).
I know I am the biggest bear there is on money talk and I would love to be wrong about the state of our economy. I just don't see how a logical person can look at everything that is taking place right now and be slightly bullish.
We saw a spike in the last two weeks but overall we are down a lot and the yield curve is starting to price in a rate cut in July (this changes almost daily) while Powell says there are no plans for a rate cut.
Inflation isn't at 2% but it's improving fast. Fasted than I thought possible.
As far as the stock market goes, it 100% depends on the federal reserve and what they do. This is not a free market.
If the feds don't cut rates like the bond markets are anticipating, we go down. If they do cut rates, it might moon.
Again, this is not how a free market is supposed to work.
I am not investing in the stock market.
I'm paying off balloon loans on property that are coming due since rates are crazy high.
I have been buying Bitcoin
I am diversifying away from USD buying property in Venezuela as I see them as the guarantee winners in this battle between BRICS and the G7 (I'll share more on this if there is any interest).
I know I am the biggest bear there is on money talk and I would love to be wrong about the state of our economy. I just don't see how a logical person can look at everything that is taking place right now and be slightly bullish.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 8:30 am to Upperaltiger06
I just had to pull some $$ out of my kid's LA START account for college expenditures, which I was hoping to keep in to await a market rebound. So now it is sure to go up.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 8:45 am to I Love Bama
quote:
I just don't see how a logical person can look at everything that is taking place right now and be slightly bullish.
Because the market has been running on hope-ium for the last year. The likelihood of a pause in May is keeping spirits up. If March's economic indicators continue to move in the direction the Fed has been wanting (an extension of the Feb numbers), that likelihood increases (which will be expressed through market gains).
If the May pause really does happen, the market's bullish inclination will continue (at least until the point where/if Unemployment moves up faster and farther than expected, oil prices push inflation back into stickiness/rising, etc).
Posted on 4/4/23 at 9:06 am to Bard
quote:
If the May pause really does happen, the market's bullish inclination will continue (at least until the point where/if Unemployment moves up faster and farther than expected, oil prices push inflation back into stickiness/rising, etc).
Agreed. This oil cut by the Saudi was a slap in the face to USA and the FED.
The smart play here is to open oil production wide arse open here in USA. More jobs, crushes inflation and takes power away from BRICS.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 9:34 am to I Love Bama
quote:
The smart play here is to open oil production wide arse open here in USA. More jobs, crushes inflation and takes power away from BRICS.
It’s pretty damn open. We will almost certainly set production records this year for domestic oil. We are drilling more than ever practically.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 9:42 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
It’s pretty damn open. We will almost certainly set production records this year for domestic oil. We are drilling more than ever practically.
Had no idea. Love to hear that.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 9:42 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
It’s pretty damn open. We will almost certainly set production records this year for domestic oil. We are drilling more than ever practically.
Yep. And we might can squeeze a little more out of the ground, but we can't refine anymore here than we already are.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 11:27 am to Upperaltiger06
quote:No. Bear markets are defined by fairly severe up head fakes before finally finding their bottom. This current jag could run for a bit, though.
Is the bear market over?
Posted on 4/4/23 at 12:13 pm to Upperaltiger06
Things have just begun to break. There's more to come. Frankly, the market shrugged off these bank failures rather too easily IMO.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 12:15 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:Just curious - what relevant data do you think was gained from the bank failures?
Frankly, the market shrugged off these bank failures rather too easily IMO.
Posted on 4/4/23 at 12:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
This current jag could run for a bit
Posted on 4/4/23 at 1:16 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
what relevant data do you think was gained from the bank failures?
Asset total in 2023 bank failures catching up to 2008
People should be freaking out and they aren't.
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