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Brian Kelly and "analytics" on going for 2
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:52 pm
I get going for 2 and the analytics. However, going to call B.S. on his attempt. Would have been much better (IMHO) and easier if he just fakes the extra point. AtM would not have been expecting it. Hell - nobody would.
The BIG problem w "analytics" and letting everyone know you're actually going for 2 is that if you don't make it you are in serious jeopardy of needing 3 scores instead of 2 scores which basically gives you an "L."
On a side note I firmly believe that had we went for 1 point and not had the b.s. TD overturned our next possession that we were in GREAT shape for another amazing comeback w all 3 timeouts left and ALL the momentum......
LINK
The BIG problem w "analytics" and letting everyone know you're actually going for 2 is that if you don't make it you are in serious jeopardy of needing 3 scores instead of 2 scores which basically gives you an "L."
On a side note I firmly believe that had we went for 1 point and not had the b.s. TD overturned our next possession that we were in GREAT shape for another amazing comeback w all 3 timeouts left and ALL the momentum......
LINK
19
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:56 pm to DrD
I thought it was a bad decision to go for 2. He has made quite a few questionable decisions going for it on 4th down...see Tenn game. I am old school and like to play it by the book personally but CFB is changing and you see these calls, bc of analytics, every week.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:56 pm to DrD
Kelly explained why he went for it in his post game presser. Give it a listen.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:58 pm to DrD
quote:
Would have been much better (IMHO) and easier if he just fakes the extra point.
No. Guarantee you the data says lining up and going for 2 has a much higher success rate than faking extra points
Posted on 11/30/22 at 12:58 pm to DrD
I disagree with his call going for two, it’s risky and it could have payed off tremendously if we had gotten it. I’m not mad at the decision. He is going to be aggressive in games and I’m ok with it.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:00 pm to DrD
Analytics are a tool, and should never replace your instincts on a play by play basis..
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:00 pm to DrD
"Analytics" I am fine with them. If you are down as for as LSU was at that point. I think you wait till you get closer. I felt the wind come out of me in my living room.
Also "Analytics" are good. But as a head coach you have got to use the veto button when needed on the book. I have seen more and more coaches going on 4th and 1 inside their own 40 in the last 2 years.
If a coach goes for 2 instead of extra point. That's a coaching decision. I can agree or disagree when or when not to do it. I just think you go for 2 later in the comeback than early in comeback.
Edit: not sure going for 2 is Analytics. It's a math issue and Head Coach can choose when to do it.
Also "Analytics" are good. But as a head coach you have got to use the veto button when needed on the book. I have seen more and more coaches going on 4th and 1 inside their own 40 in the last 2 years.
If a coach goes for 2 instead of extra point. That's a coaching decision. I can agree or disagree when or when not to do it. I just think you go for 2 later in the comeback than early in comeback.
Edit: not sure going for 2 is Analytics. It's a math issue and Head Coach can choose when to do it.
This post was edited on 11/30/22 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:02 pm to jmon
I heard the explanation on the post game and I am okay with it. The problem is it was unsuccessful. He looked like a genius after the Alabama game. That could have backfired on him too.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:05 pm to DrD
Why do all you losers harp on games from 4 days ago, when we are playing a bigger game in 3 days?
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:05 pm to geauxpurple
quote:
I heard the explanation on the post game and I am okay with it. The problem is it was unsuccessful. He looked like a genius after the Alabama game. That could have backfired on him too.
I dont think it really backfires because people understand if you're given 1 play to beat or lose to bama from the 3 yard line you just take it and roll the dice.
In the situation of being down 13 vs. 14 vs. 15, you almost always take the guaranteed be down 14. Yes, sure, chances are if you go for 2 twice you'll get it once, but there's also a whole lot of scenarios where you go for 2 twice and dont get it either time, and we were 1 2 point play away from that being a reality that game, and then at that point you GUARANTEE you lose because you'd be down 9 instead of 7 by taking the 2 XP late in the 4th.
I understand the analytics behind it, but int that situation it doesnt seem like a good idea in the 4th quarter because there's so much room for failure and forcing yourself out the game even if you do make a great comeback.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:06 pm to geauxpurple
Alabama game he was 2 yards from victory and 1 play. When or lose he was going to have to do it per rules 15 minutes later anyway. The ATM game I just felt like he could have waited.
This post was edited on 11/30/22 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:08 pm to DrD
quote:
letting everyone know you're actually going for 2 is that if you don't make it you are in serious jeopardy of needing 3 scores instead of 2 scores which basically gives you an "L."
The idea is to go for two and make it 13 that way even if you give up a field goal it is still a 2 possession game.
quote:
Would have been much better (IMHO) and easier if he just fakes the extra point.
No in that situation If you are going to go for two you put your offense on the field. The other coaches have those same analytics. A smart coach wouldn’t go all out for the block in that situation.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:12 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Analytics are a tool, and should never replace your instincts on a play by play basis..
And his instincts said to follow the analytics in that moment. I am willing to bet in the Bama game the analytics didn’t say go for two but his instincts were I need to go win this game now.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:15 pm to DrD
It was a dumb decision no matter how anyone tries to spin it.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:20 pm to Topwater Trout
As regards the Tennessee game I believe he thought it to be a lost cause So why not go for the 4th
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:21 pm to geauxtigers33
quote:
The idea is to go for two and make it 13 that way even if you give up a field goal it is still a 2 possession game.
I realize that but if we give up a fg the game is over anyways.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:24 pm to DrD
Shut up. You don't know more than the coaches.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:28 pm to Topwater Trout
Bingo, for that scenario to have played out you’d need 4-6 more total possession in the game with 6 minutes remaining which is near impossible. Using the “analytics” excuse is BS because the 2 score or 3-4 possession game is much more likely going by the actual percentages with the time we had left.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:30 pm to SalE
quote:
As regards the Tennessee game I believe he thought it to be a lost cause So why not go for the 4th
He passed up some scoring opportunities in that game. I understood why but sometimes it's better to get points. We were behind the 8 ball early in that game so it was definitely understandable.
FTR I will always hate going for it 4th and short inside the 30 in a big game.
Posted on 11/30/22 at 1:39 pm to DrD
The decision Kelly made was we were not playing for a tie and overtime. You can agree or disagree with this decision, but once made, the analytics would tell you to go for two. The reason why is that you want to know were you stand (i.e. how many scores you need) asap as this effects how you play the rest of the game. Overall this increases your odds of winning somewhat.
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