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Win Out and You're In
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:53 pm
I can't imagine the Tigers not getting into the playoffs if they win out. I felt this way a couple weeks ago too. I have had Tigers moving high up the rankings to where I have them now:
2022 Power Groupings - Week 10
Georgia (9-0)
Ohio State (9-0)
Michigan (9-0)
TCU (9-0)
Oregon (8-1)
LSU (7-2)
Tennessee (8-1)
UCLA (8-1)
Ole Miss (8-1)
Alabama (7-2)
2022 Power Groupings - Week 10
Georgia (9-0)
Ohio State (9-0)
Michigan (9-0)
TCU (9-0)
Oregon (8-1)
LSU (7-2)
Tennessee (8-1)
UCLA (8-1)
Ole Miss (8-1)
Alabama (7-2)
7
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:55 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
Ya I think so. They're not gonna put a 1L Tennessee in the CFP above us who didn't even win their division, and they certainly won't put a 1L Georgia over us if we beat them in the SEC Championship. ACC lost their chance when ND beat Clemson.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:56 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
Maybe, maybe not. It’s hard to know at this point one way or another.
Either way it’s nice to be in the discussion, which no one expected us to be.
FWIW, I totally disagree with Tenn being below us in those power rankings currently. If we win out, that could certainly change, but no reasonable person would put us ahead of Tennessee right now.
Either way it’s nice to be in the discussion, which no one expected us to be.
FWIW, I totally disagree with Tenn being below us in those power rankings currently. If we win out, that could certainly change, but no reasonable person would put us ahead of Tennessee right now.
This post was edited on 11/9/22 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:03 pm to JPLSU1981
I don’t Tennessee would want to play us again next week either.
We’re a different team than what they got the first time.
We’re a different team than what they got the first time.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:30 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
Disagree. We need help.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:46 pm to AkronTiger
quote:
Ya I think so. They're not gonna put a 1L Tennessee in the CFP above us who didn't even win their division, and they certainly won't put a 1L Georgia over us if we beat them in the SEC Championship. ACC lost their chance when ND beat Clemson.
Under that scenario LSU is in by virtue of SEC Champion. Then it's between Georgia and Tennessee. Georgia beat Tennessee so Georgia gets the 2nd spot.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:47 pm to Mats86
quote:
Disagree. We need help.
We absolutely do. People thinking we don’t are delusional and/or have not paid attention to the CFB committee’s prior Final Fours. They kept an 11-2 Big 10 Conference Champ Penn State out and their MAIN reason that they kept coming back to was that 2nd loss.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:48 pm to AkronTiger
quote:
They're not gonna put a 1L Tennessee in the CFP above us who didn't even win their division
You're leaving out a key factor in the LSU vs Tennessee debate.
Maybe the committee will ultimately favor SEC title over H2H/better record, but I don't think it's a slam dunk decision one way or the other. If it was a close loss on the road maybe, but Tennessee curbstomped us in Tiger Stadium... that will be factored in by the committee.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 2:19 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
Yep, win the next six and we're national champs. Win the following 15 and we're repeat national champs. 
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:00 pm to Broski
quote:
Maybe the committee will ultimately favor SEC title over H2H/better record, but I don't think it's a slam dunk decision one way or the other. If it was a close loss on the road maybe, but Tennessee curbstomped us in Tiger Stadium... that will be factored in by the committee.
Exactly. Tennessee has -250 odds on the betting sites to make the playoffs. Now, that obviously factors in the fact that Georgia would be a big favorite over us in the SECCG, but still. It’s unlikely, but if the rest of the season plays out chalk with us beating Georgia being the only upset (I know TCU is a dog to Texas this weekend, but when I say “chalk,” I’m counting TCU as a 13-0 Big 12 Champ), there’s no guarantee at all we get in. I honestly think it’s less than 50/50.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:01 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
Even if we don’t and get the sugar bowl I mean what more can we ask for
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:02 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
I don’t think we get in if we win out without a little help. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t think we completely control our own destiny.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:05 pm to Hot Carl
Yes, but the Big 10 isn’t the SEC. What happened to Michigan last year?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:09 pm to SissyBoyFloyd
I don't see how you put LSU ahead of Tennessee since Tenn won head to head and their only loss is to number 1.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 4:21 pm to Broski
quote:
Maybe the committee will ultimately favor SEC title over H2H/better record, but I don't think it's a slam dunk decision one way or the other. If it was a close loss on the road maybe, but Tennessee curbstomped us in Tiger Stadium... that will be factored in by the committee.
They will also have factored that LSU would have improved to the point of beating the team that curb stomped them towards the end of the season. Usually, it's the impressions of the end of the season that influence the powers that be more than earlier in the season.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 8:50 pm to chryso
Yes, I agree I should have Tenn ahead of the Tigers right now.
If Oregon wins out they are in. But they have the toughest remaining games, imo. Utah, Wash, their rival Oregon St which is no slouch, then possibly USC. I doubt either UCLA OR USC with only 1 loss making it over Tenn.
No way they will put the loser of Ohio St/Michigan in.
And that pretty much leaves TCU which I have serious doubts about having to play at both Tex and Baylor back to back. If they win out, they surely deserve to be in.
I guess my favorite final 4 would be:
Michigan
LSU
TCU
Oregon
If I was to bet right now however:
Georgia (or LSU)
Mich or Ohio St (a toss up)
TCU
Oregon
If LSU runs the table and beats Georgia, and TCU falls, Georgia would probably be back in.
If LSU falls to Georgia, and TCU falls, then Tenn would back in most likely.
If LSU, Oregon, and TCU run the table, then the only question remaining is who wins the Mich/Ohio St game.
If Oregon wins out they are in. But they have the toughest remaining games, imo. Utah, Wash, their rival Oregon St which is no slouch, then possibly USC. I doubt either UCLA OR USC with only 1 loss making it over Tenn.
No way they will put the loser of Ohio St/Michigan in.
And that pretty much leaves TCU which I have serious doubts about having to play at both Tex and Baylor back to back. If they win out, they surely deserve to be in.
I guess my favorite final 4 would be:
Michigan
LSU
TCU
Oregon
If I was to bet right now however:
Georgia (or LSU)
Mich or Ohio St (a toss up)
TCU
Oregon
If LSU runs the table and beats Georgia, and TCU falls, Georgia would probably be back in.
If LSU falls to Georgia, and TCU falls, then Tenn would back in most likely.
If LSU, Oregon, and TCU run the table, then the only question remaining is who wins the Mich/Ohio St game.
This post was edited on 11/9/22 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 11/9/22 at 10:00 pm to chryso
quote:
I don't see how you put LSU ahead of Tennessee since Tenn won head to head and their only loss is to number 1.
Because it's about when you win or lose, if the loss was at the end of the season then you win the SEC championship it would be a different story. There will be a clear demarcation from the UF game to Sec championship game where LSU had clear improvement and won the SEC. Sports people especially voters love the rocky narrative (underdog knocked down then gets back up), 2006 Tim Tebow speech post ole miss narrative . It's not a rational 1 loss vs 2 loss zero sum discussion. If LSU wins they're in no doubt in my mind but beating UGA will be a tall order.
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