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Updated odds to make CFP via Caesar’s Sportsbook
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:43 pm
I’m sure we will get another update after tomorrow night.
Some interesting numbers here. Committee has their work cut out for them down the stretch here.
Michigan, TCU, LSU all seem a little inflated based on where they would be today but they all have at least one game where they will be a +200 dog or greater. Michigan could theoretically lose that game and still get in but most of these schools with tough games left you are better off with a rolling ML parlay.
quote:
Georgia -1250
Ohio State -500
Tennessee +120
Michigan +170
Oregon +300
USC +325
TCU +450
LSU +750
Clemson +850
UCLA +1000
Alabama +2000
Ole Miss +2500
Some interesting numbers here. Committee has their work cut out for them down the stretch here.
Michigan, TCU, LSU all seem a little inflated based on where they would be today but they all have at least one game where they will be a +200 dog or greater. Michigan could theoretically lose that game and still get in but most of these schools with tough games left you are better off with a rolling ML parlay.
9
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:48 pm to volfan30
+750 doesn’t have any value imo. You could possibly money line roll LSU vs. Arky/aggy/UGA and get above that
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:51 pm to MasterofTigerBait
Tennessee, possibly Michigan and if you think Bama or Clemson possibly sneak in are the only bets with any value on the board as a straight bet. Maybe UCLA or Ole Miss?
No value with UGA or OSU obviously.
TCU, LSU, Oregon, USC you are better off rolling over every game.
No value with UGA or OSU obviously.
TCU, LSU, Oregon, USC you are better off rolling over every game.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:54 pm to volfan30
Money on Alabama is basically a waste. They have two losses and no realistic path to Atlanta. Ole Miss would be a better bet; they could maybe find a way in at 11-1.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:55 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
Bama bet you are hoping LSU loses to Arkansas and A&M I guess and then Bama finds a way to beat UGA and some results go your way in other games. Very unlikely obviously.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:56 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
They have two losses and no realistic path to Atlanta.
The realistic path is the beat Ole Miss, LSU drops a game, and they beat UGA in the SEC title game
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:57 pm to volfan30
Tennessee losing Saturday may have been more beneficial to them than a win. They don’t have to play in the SEC Championship and will sneak into the playoff as #4 when all the dust settles.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:57 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The realistic path is the beat Ole Miss, LSU drops a game
That wouldn't get them to Atlanta, we have both tie breakers.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:57 pm to volfan30
Alabama is a sucker's bet. If they beat Ole Miss they would need LSU to lose to both Arkansas and A&M to win the west, and then they have to beat Georgia.
If they are 10-2 and runners up in the west they have no chance. Especially over a potentially 11-1 Tennessee that beat them, a possible 13-0 or 12-1 UGA, and the possible 11-2 LSU team.
If they are 10-2 and runners up in the west they have no chance. Especially over a potentially 11-1 Tennessee that beat them, a possible 13-0 or 12-1 UGA, and the possible 11-2 LSU team.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:59 pm to BigDawg0420
quote:
Tennessee losing Saturday may have been more beneficial to them than a win. They don’t have to play in the SEC Championship and will sneak into the playoff as #4 when all the dust settles.
If LSU wins the SEC, UGA is still going. Had Tenn beat UGA, they would get the same treatment. Now they need UGA to win.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:59 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The realistic path is the beat Ole Miss, LSU drops two games, and they beat UGA in the SEC title game
FIFY. Bama is done. Their fans have already moved on to basketball season.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 12:59 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The realistic path is the beat Ole Miss, LSU drops a game, and they beat UGA in the SEC title game
LSU would have to lose to both A&M and Arkansas, not just one. Not going to say it’s impossible, but very unlikely. And even if that unlikely event does happen, Bama would still have to beat UGA.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:00 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The realistic path is the beat Ole Miss, LSU drops a game, and they beat UGA in the SEC title game
LSU would have to drop both SEC games remaining.
Ole Miss is the better bet, if LSU drops one and they win out they could be 12-1 SEC champs. I am not putting a dime on it though.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:00 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
That wouldn't get them to Atlanta, we have both tie breakers.
Got it.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:00 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
Bama’s odds are throwing away money. For them to make it, the following would have to happen
1. Win out including beating UGA
2. LSU loses to Arkansas AND Texas A&M
1. Win out including beating UGA
2. LSU loses to Arkansas AND Texas A&M
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:04 pm to volfan30
Do yourself a favor and use either fanduel or draftkings
Caesars odds are absolute trash for almost everything
Even their boosted stuff is worse than fanduels normal odds more than half of the time
Caesars odds are absolute trash for almost everything
Even their boosted stuff is worse than fanduels normal odds more than half of the time
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:08 pm to 3PieceSpicy
FanDuel and DraftKings don’t have CFP odds right now. That’s why I used Caesar’s.
When actually betting I use whatever site hangs the best number. On or offshore.
When actually betting I use whatever site hangs the best number. On or offshore.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:13 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
Money on Alabama is basically a waste. They have two losses and no realistic path to Atlanta.
‘Bama has the best two quality losses in the country.’
-ESPN spin machine
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:17 pm to volfan30
Utah isn’t on there but I think they’d be a good value bet. Assuming they win out they’d eliminate USC, Oregon, and UCLA. TCU will finish with two losses. Bama will eliminate Ole Miss this weekend. LSu will lose to Georgia.
So it comes down to Utah vs 1 loss Mich/Tenn for the last spot
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Utah/Mich/Tenn
So it comes down to Utah vs 1 loss Mich/Tenn for the last spot
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Utah/Mich/Tenn
Posted on 11/7/22 at 1:17 pm to BigDawg0420
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/10/23 at 5:07 am
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