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re: This is what I think the final CFP poll will look like if LSU wins out.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:38 am to Hurricane2020
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:38 am to Hurricane2020
This scenario is the exact reason college football will be expanding the playoffs sooner, rather than later. I bet just thinking about a situation like this is giving those committee members anxiety.
1
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:40 am to Hurricane2020
USC/Oregon 1-loss winner will be in serious consideration for a slot.
If the loss to Georgia wasn't so bad, I'd say Oregon would get in over Georgia, but that blowout would keep them out if they finish with 1 loss.
If USC finishes with 1 loss (1 point at Utah) after beating Oregon, I think they would get in over Georgia and be 4th.
1. Ohio State
2. TCU (Have to remain undefeated)
3. LSU
4. USC (Michigan, Georgia and Tennessee in consideration.)
If TCU loses, everyone moves up a slot and Georgia gets the 4th slot over Michigan and Tennessee.
Semi: Ohio State vs USC & TCU vs LSU.
..or..
Semi: Ohio State vs Georgia & LSU vs USC.
If the loss to Georgia wasn't so bad, I'd say Oregon would get in over Georgia, but that blowout would keep them out if they finish with 1 loss.
If USC finishes with 1 loss (1 point at Utah) after beating Oregon, I think they would get in over Georgia and be 4th.
1. Ohio State
2. TCU (Have to remain undefeated)
3. LSU
4. USC (Michigan, Georgia and Tennessee in consideration.)
If TCU loses, everyone moves up a slot and Georgia gets the 4th slot over Michigan and Tennessee.
Semi: Ohio State vs USC & TCU vs LSU.
..or..
Semi: Ohio State vs Georgia & LSU vs USC.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:40 am to Hurricane2020
I think UGA gets in. One conf champ stays home. Lot of ball to play. I think TCU goes down this week to Texas.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 7:41 am
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:41 am to Hurricane2020
Clemson and TCU are not going to the championship. Clemson blew their chance abs TCU will lose at least one of the last 3. And if they are undefeated they won’t be after the title game. They are done
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:41 am to Hurricane2020
A one loss Oregon doesn’t get in over a one loss UGa that beat them by over 30.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:47 am to IAmTheTator
I am, Michigan will have a WORTHLESS strength of schedule that will immediately eliminate itself out of contention with a loss to OSU. With it's only win against a decent-good Penn st and the mighty Illinois, Michigan, with zero top 10 wins, will have a much worse strength of record than TCU, Oregon, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:47 am to ShaneTheMaster
quote:
No way 1 loss Georgia is left out
I concur
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:48 am to Hurricane2020
Nice analysis...cant argue with that. However for all the props given to Georgia they only played and beat 2 ranked teams. And Oregon was the first game of the year; the most jumpiest game; the stage of the season with the least stock. Also, giving them a pass for the struggle wins they had with the lesser teams as being lazy is not fair; those struggles count against them. Tenessee messed up against em just because they couldnt pressure Bennett.
I can easily argue that a one loss Tennessee deserves to be ahead of one loss Georgia, especially if we dominate them in SECC
I can easily argue that a one loss Tennessee deserves to be ahead of one loss Georgia, especially if we dominate them in SECC
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:50 am to Hurricane2020
quote:
Who do you put Georgia in over?
quote:
Undefeated TCU
And certainly
quote:
Pac-12 Champ Oregon
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:53 am to LSUAlum2001
Your top 4 is similar to mine, but I think Oregon wins out and beats USC and their post Georgia blowout resume will be one of the best in the country. Better than Georgias will be actually. Oregon will have top 10 wins over UCLA and USC a top 15 win over utah, and a top 25 win over Washington.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:55 am to Tigaux6661
I appreciate it, I can see that scenario as well but I can't realistically factor in LSU beating Georgia by 2-3 scores.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:58 am to Hurricane2020
These things usually work themselves out in the last few games and then in the conference championship games. TCU and Oregon could drop a game and it wouldn't be that much of a surprise. I'm not a SEC homer at all, I'm a LSU fan and that's it. The rest of the SEC is the enemy as far as I'm concerned. But having said that, if UGA and Tennessee both finish with one loss, man. They would both have a strong case for making it in.
It comes down to rewarding conference champions or picking the 4 best teams. If LSU wins them imo the 4 best teams would be Ohio State, LSU, UGA, and Tenn. All due respect to TCU if they finish as an undefeated conference champion but the Big 12 isn't that strong this year.
It comes down to rewarding conference champions or picking the 4 best teams. If LSU wins them imo the 4 best teams would be Ohio State, LSU, UGA, and Tenn. All due respect to TCU if they finish as an undefeated conference champion but the Big 12 isn't that strong this year.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:59 am to coondaddy21
We really needed a 6 seed playoff to get rid of this problem. Most years sort themselves out, but this could be one of those problem years where someone gets snubbed that deserves it. There are 4 (Bama is eliminated but is good enough to beat anyone) teams in the SEC that would be deserving of a playoff spot. 6 gives every major conference a spot unless they are just trash and have 2 losses in a bad conference and an at large bid.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:12 am to blowmeauburn
quote:
Agree. Think Georgia is in no matter what. It becomes LSU or Oregon.
Uga is not getting in over LSU if they play last game season and they lose.
I don’t care if they have a better record
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:13 am to Hurricane2020
You’re giving way too much credit to the BIG12 & PAC12 champs.
The CFP committee already let you know where they stand putting a 1-loss Bama at #6 in front of TCU, Oregon, & USC.
They all need help to get in even if LSU beats UGA.
The CFP committee already let you know where they stand putting a 1-loss Bama at #6 in front of TCU, Oregon, & USC.
They all need help to get in even if LSU beats UGA.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:14 am to Hurricane2020
It can be 10 to 14 points but dominant...look at the Tennessee Georgia game...it was a 14 point game but double strap on domination.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:15 am to Hurricane2020
If Ohio State is undefeated and Michigan keeps it close, they will only have a loss to the #1 team. The computer models and “eye tests” love Michigan. Especially if Ohio State blows the doors off in their championship game (which they will) I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan got in ahead of Oregon, Tennessee, or a 1-loss TCU.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:17 am to ShaneTheMaster
quote:
No way 1 loss Georgia is left out
I scrolled to that and hit the back button. Laughable that he’d put that in writing knowing UGA beat Oregon by 40 plus (and he has Oregon in the playoff).
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:18 am to Hurricane2020
quote:Wait!
LSU would be favored by 20-30pts in a rematch today.
You think Oregon would be a toss-up or even less than a 10pt dog against a 1L UGA???
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:19 am to ShaneTheMaster
quote:
No way 1 loss Georgia is left out
Yes, in that scenario I think Georgia replaced Oregon. One other thing to consider, while not dispositive, Georgia did beat Oregon earlier in the year 49-3. Georgia goes instead of Oregon.
A different question: if Ohio St. and Michigan play a great close game, does the Big 10 send 2 instead of the SEC? In that scenario, I could see LSU getting left out and UGA going instead.
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