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Message
We're about 7 weeks out - lets take a look at the RCP Midterm Maps
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:18 pm
The House of Representatives
RCP averages show that the GOP will take the House. You need 218 for the majority and there are 218 clear cut GOP wins.
So now you are playing for a margin. Of the 33 tossups, Democrats currently hold 27 of the seats and are playing defense. If the GOP can take their 6 and an additional 6 of the 27 Dem tossups, that will give them a healthy 230-205 lead and Pelosi will have zero power.
The Senate
The Battle for the Senate is a little different. RCP currently gives the GOP 47 to the Dems 46, with 7 tossup states. Whichever side wins four of the seven controls the Senate.
Arizona
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
The latest polls show:
Dems ahead in Arizona (2 points), Pennsylvania (4) and New Hampshire (8)
GOP ahead in NC (3 points), Nevada (4), and Wisconsin (4)
and a statistical tie in Georgia.
This thing is going to come down to whether Kemp can bring Walker across the finish line in Georgia, isn't it?
RCP averages show that the GOP will take the House. You need 218 for the majority and there are 218 clear cut GOP wins.
So now you are playing for a margin. Of the 33 tossups, Democrats currently hold 27 of the seats and are playing defense. If the GOP can take their 6 and an additional 6 of the 27 Dem tossups, that will give them a healthy 230-205 lead and Pelosi will have zero power.
The Senate
The Battle for the Senate is a little different. RCP currently gives the GOP 47 to the Dems 46, with 7 tossup states. Whichever side wins four of the seven controls the Senate.
Arizona
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
The latest polls show:
Dems ahead in Arizona (2 points), Pennsylvania (4) and New Hampshire (8)
GOP ahead in NC (3 points), Nevada (4), and Wisconsin (4)
and a statistical tie in Georgia.
This thing is going to come down to whether Kemp can bring Walker across the finish line in Georgia, isn't it?
19
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:21 pm to anc
I live in NC and I dunno. Our senators are doing everything they can to piss off gun owners.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:23 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
I live in NC and I dunno. Our senators are doing everything they can to piss off gun owners.
If gun owners in NC are so stupid that they would not vote or vote for Democrats because of anything that Thom Tillis has done or said, you deserve Democratic Senate representation.
Nothing Richard Burr has ever said or done is relevant to the Senate race.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:23 pm to anc
Ohio is close too.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:25 pm to anc
quote:
This thing is going to come down to whether Kemp can bring Walker across the finish line in Georgia, isn't it?
Yes.
I believe the average house pickup for the non incumbent WH party for midterms is 35 seats. A 35 seat shift to the GOP would result in 230-205...
This assumes that the current two vacancies in the House go Dem.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:25 pm to anc
Hoping the plumbing doesn’t have a leak.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:25 pm to anc
I think it'll be wider GOP margins ahead than this shows.
Americans, the real ones, are tired of this crap
Americans, the real ones, are tired of this crap
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:30 pm to anc
quote:
Pennsylvania (4)
I don’t what’s more mind boggling: the democratic candidate is literally brain damaged communist and leading in the polls or the very best that the entire state of PA could muster is Dr. Oz, who an odd bird himself.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:33 pm to armtackledawg
quote:
Ohio is close too.
LOL! No, it's not. Vance and Dewine are killing their races.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:34 pm to anc
It's insane that after all the shite we've watched the democrats pull over the last 2 years that the republicans are barely getting by. Just goes to show you how pathetic they are.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:35 pm to NCIS_76
quote:
Hoping the plumbing doesn’t have a leak.
We predict a HUGE water main blow up like in November 2020 and we will have to shut down the Arena in Atlanta again...for all but those of us "counting ballots".
- Ruby Freeman and Stacy "Queen" Abrams
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:42 pm to anc
I don't think Arizona is that close. Lake has extended her lead and I think she brings the Senate with her. Same in Georgia.
I would expect to see Trump make a hard Pennsylvania push at some point.
The House will go huge to Republicans. They gained +14 in 2020.
The Senate I think goes Red too.
I would expect to see Trump make a hard Pennsylvania push at some point.
The House will go huge to Republicans. They gained +14 in 2020.
The Senate I think goes Red too.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:42 pm to anc
GOP will 100% win in November.
The problem is it won't matter. GOP = DNC = monoparty. It's a farce. I can't get excited about this.
The problem is it won't matter. GOP = DNC = monoparty. It's a farce. I can't get excited about this.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:45 pm to anc
quote:
Arizona
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
For the Senate, NH and NV are gone. PA and WI will see serious election fraud shenanigans, and they'll try it in AZ and GA again as well.
It will probably be enough to secure the Senate for the groomers again, unfortunately. At this point, I'd consider a two year stalemate a pretty huge win though, should the GOP retake the House.
Even if the GOPe regained the House AND Senate, I still don't trust them to do anything of value. They've ALL sold their soul to China. We're better off with an ineffectual Congress than we are with either party in command.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:50 pm to anc
quote:
Arizona
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Polls show that 90% of dead voters approve of the job Biden is doing in these states. Doesn’t bode well for Republicans winning the senate
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:51 pm to anc
I'm still calling a 1 seat majority for the democrats in the house and a 3 seat majority in the senate for democrats.
The last seats won't be called until close to Thanksgiving.
The last seats won't be called until close to Thanksgiving.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:56 pm to anc
stacey abrams' most recent gaffe could (should) be the end for her and may swing votes towards Herschel 1 or 2 %
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:57 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
The problem is it won't matter. GOP = DNC = monoparty. It's a farce. I can't get excited about this.
Get Turtle and McCarthy out of leadership roles and that would likely change a bit.
Turtle knows so is actively trying to torpedo some of these races. His PAC pulled all support from Masters for instance.
He doesn't want to win the senate with a bunch of America First candidates as they will not support him.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:03 pm to anc
quote:
The latest polls show:
Dems ahead in Arizona (2 points), Pennsylvania (4) and New Hampshire (8)
GOP ahead in NC (3 points), Nevada (4), and Wisconsin (4)
and a statistical tie in Georgia.
This thing is going to come down to whether Kemp can bring Walker across the finish line in Georgia, isn't it?
Dr. Oz may be a shitty candidate but Fetterman is fading fast and the PA race may not even be close when its over.
Walker may also be a shitty candidate, but Kemp is not only dragging him along but Abrams is really dragging Warnock down with GA voters.
Blake Masters might still overtake Kelley in AZ but that race still has to play out.
If I were a betting man I would call both PA and GA for the R and a 52-48 Republican majority in the Senate.
EDIT: What scares me is a 51-49 Republican Senate -Republicans will look at Mitt Romney and finally understand why the D's hate Joe Manchin so much.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:37 pm to anc
I’m gonna be pissed of Georgia fricks us out of senate control again
5 of the 7 toss up states were fraud states in 2020 too. Not reassuring at all
5 of the 7 toss up states were fraud states in 2020 too. Not reassuring at all
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