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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:32 pm to
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23457 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

Increasing moisture advection and upper difluence will bring heavy rain with rates up to 3" per hour for spots in the southern-third of Florida this evening.


Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35711 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

One thing worth watching is there's a subtle tough at 250-mb not seen at 500-mb. If Ian continues rapidly strengthening and becomes more vertical to where it feels the flow at 250-mb better the streamlines into the 250-mb trough will nudge Ian slightly WNW and closer to the trough. It won't be a big shift west but it will send it slightly farther up the Florida coast and could be the difference between big bend and Tampa for landfall.



This is damn strong analysis yall.

Im concerned the SW side weakness this morning might have slowed the deepening enough to frick Tampa.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98754 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

(Abrams) in the TWC studio


No tight wet T shirts on location. A most distressing development.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
62237 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:34 pm to
I have done all I can do that I know of... Going to enjoy this last night with power as I am sure we will lose it here. I have a small 6500w generator with 24 gallons of gas. Plenty of food and water. And of course, Don Julio and mixers.

Probably gonna get some wings tonight and have some cocktails and embrace the suck. Raining here in Bradenton but its just the normal afternoon stuff


Im open for any suggestions fro the pros..


Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
91256 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

This is damn strong analysis yall.


The Boat flexing up in here
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
36791 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:35 pm to
leave if you can.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
20598 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

Bradenton


Have cousins who live there. What is the expected potential flooding/storm surge situation there?
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35711 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Was GFS or Euro more accurate early on for this one?


Neither were amazing. Euro was more "right" overall I guess but they mostly pointed out the right questions instead of really answering them.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35711 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

Im open for any suggestions fro the pros..


You need to take a long think about your drainage situation.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
62237 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:41 pm to
quote:

Have cousins who live there. What is the expected potential flooding/storm surge situation there?



Bradenton is all over the place. My shop is in west bradenton and that area is fricked. Its about 2 miles from the gulf and will get hammered. I did what I can do there early this morning


My home is out by I75 which is about 10-12 miles east of there. We are not as prone here to flood since we are a good bit higher. I dont have the option to leave really so we will rock and roll with it.

Posted by Tbonepatron
Member since Aug 2013
8447 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Im open for any suggestions fro the pros..


Get a couple dozen extra wings for leftovers
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
62237 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Get a couple dozen extra wings for leftovers




That is a great idea.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6164 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

I have done all I can do that I know of... Going to enjoy this last night with power as I am sure we will lose it here. I have a small 6500w generator with 24 gallons of gas. Plenty of food and water. And of course, Don Julio and mixers.

Probably gonna get some wings tonight and have some cocktails and embrace the suck. Raining here in Bradenton but its just the normal afternoon stuff


Im open for any suggestions fro the pros..




Get yourself a window unit.

Get more gas! You wont be able to find gas for miles after the storm. You can never have too much gas (the kind that goes in the generator).

Oil for generator.

Depending on where you are, you could lose gas, water and sewer. Prepare for that. Wet wipes are your friend.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 3:44 pm
Posted by SabineRat
Member since Oct 2015
45 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:44 pm to
Gas, liquor, chainsaw (with oil & bar oil), ice chest (red cross, national guard or other charities will have ice), extension cords and I’m leaving out some shite. Sadly us cajuns have way to much experience hurricane camping lol
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107331 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:44 pm to
Maybe get a few books too

Thoughts with all of y’all waiting this thing out
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
39599 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Im open for any suggestions


Spare gas tank/charcoal for BBQ? Spare coffee, filters, pet food, etc.

Charge any spare battery packs for phone charging. Get a pack of the wife's favorite cookies and hand them to her when she freaks.
Posted by 850SaintsGator
Pensacola
Member since Sep 2021
2282 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:45 pm to
We fled Irma …took us 6hrs to get Tallahassee and we were taking back roads to miss the crush on i75


My sister lives in Tampa- i told her to go to Miami bc it’s closer, not gonna get a big impact and it’s easier to get back to Tampa
Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
85067 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

My sister lives in Tampa- i told her to go to Miami bc it’s closer, not gonna get a big impact and it’s easier to get back to Tampa

My best friend lives in Tampa as well. Worried like hell for him as well, he only lives a bit over a mile away from bay. He's going to Lakeland. I told him the same as you, head South to Miami.

It's weird, I usually visit annually, and he always talks about where he lives in relation to the water, and that locals always talk about the catastrophe if a hurricane comes directly up through the bay. It's never happened, (that I know of), but they all talk about that day, and the destruction that will come.

I hope tBoat is correct about the Big Bend scenario.
Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
30805 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:51 pm to
Fill your bathtub with water so you can flush the toilets in the event you lose water pressure
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 3:53 pm
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22384 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

24 gallons of gas


This ain't enough baw.
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