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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:14 am to ABucks11
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:14 am to ABucks11
Really helpful! Makes me feel much better with it dropping off so rapidly by landfall. That’s such a shallow area from Tarpon up to Cedar Key. We lived in Crystal River for quite a few years. I know it’ll cause them some flooding problems there.
0
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:15 am to alphaandomega
quote:
I understand the situation with Tampa (and its large population centers) receiving hurricane force winds but on the TT models I am watching the eye and main portion of the storm looks to be a little off the coast and making landfall between Tallahassee and Gainesville.
Am I looking at it wrong?
The center looks like it would stay just west of Tampa, but Tampa is still obviously on the east side so there will still surge (probably a lot into the bay given the motion of the storm relative to the position of the bay), hurricane force winds, and high rain totals.
Also, as NHC mentions in their discussion, even though Ian may be weakening it will slow down and its wind field will expand. Creating a situation where hurricane conditions over a large area could persist for many hours.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:17 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:16 am to alphaandomega
quote:
What is the consensus of possible damage in the big bend?
Not nothing but it would be weakening quickly on approach, and this assumes a direct hit into the middle of the Big Bend.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:17 am to rds dc
My people in Tampa/St Pete don't seem to be taking this as serious as they should. 8 feet storm surge seems like it would quite a bit.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:18 am to Hangit
Where are you at?????
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:18 am to Abstract Queso Dip
There have been a lot of Tampa misses over the years. Tampons arent going to respond like our northern gulf coast folks who have spent two summers just living in hurricanes.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:18 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:Hasn't the area not gotten a hurricane hit in 100 years? Hard to compare when you haven't seen what can happen from a near direct hurricane path
I’ve never flooded here in 10 years, though.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:20 am to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
My people in Tampa/St Pete don't seem to be taking this as serious as they should. 8 feet storm surge seems like it would quite a bit.
St Pete down to Siesta is mostly flat too. Flat like Destin, no elevation like 30A. Those barrier islands (clearwater beach down to anna marie and siesta) could be 100% covered by surge.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:24 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:20 am to Abstract Queso Dip
8 feet in Tampa would be a very bad thing. It is not going to be just Tampa. Our whole west coast has small island and waterways all along it. Just hot water and marsh.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:22 am to alphaandomega
quote:
Am I looking at it wrong?
It shifted down a touch this morning. If this current map stays true, everything from Bonita Springs up the coast past Cedar Key, then through Jorts Vegas, will look like it went 3 rounds with young Mike Tyson.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:22 am to SippyCup
quote:
Lets assume the track stays consistent. That still brings 10+ of surge into Tampa. They cant handle that. There will be more devastation in Tampa metro than where the eye crosses.
Yeah I understand that will be really bad but Tampa is too far for us to respond to. Hoping for peoples thoughts about damage amounts in the big bend.
I just dont want to waste money that could be spent on another storm (that lands somewhere we can get to).
(FYI the charity is Here to Serve, we serve between 1000-1200 FREE hot meals twice a day. Last year we went to Lake Charles and Prarieville)
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:22 am to Tvilletiger
Exactly. My colleague said they are on higher ground and then she just mentioned that they have a drain in their front yard. Her neighbor wRned her when they moved in to be sure to keep it clean so the yard doesn't flood. Well there ain't gonna be anywhere for the water to drain once that amount comes on landfall.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:24 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:27 am to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
My people in Tampa/St Pete don't seem to be taking this as serious as they should. 8 feet storm surge seems like it would quite a bit.
I have friends in St. Pete who live about a mile from the beach. The family left Saturday, thankfully.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:28 am to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
she just mentioned that they have a drain in their front yard.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:29 am to Gris Gris
Hoping it weakens substantially before getting to cedar key. Love that place. Almost bought a hotel there.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:30 am to Y.A. Tittle
Tampa’s storm water all running into the bay is going to make this even more problematic. South Tampa specifically. Hopefully rain totals aren’t massive because there won’t be anywhere for that water to go.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:30 am to flyAU
quote:
Hoping it weakens substantially before getting to cedar key. Love that place. Almost bought a hotel there.
yup I love that place too.
I went there back in 2016 after they had another storm that went through, albeit a bit weaker than this one.
Nice place.
Blackened grouper sandwiches were the best. As well as the smoked mullet dip.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:31 am to Y.A. Tittle
Leaving Tampa today (was in town on vacay). It’s business as usual in Clearwater. No boarding up, people hitting the beach, etc.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:31 am to dukke v
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:36 am to gaetti15
The little motel with a tiki bar I was looking at buying is on Low Key. Which is named that for a reason.:. Hope the best for the couple that bought it. Supposed to go after Christmas.
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