- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Nate Silverware releases 538’s first 2022 forecast
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:34 pm
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
·
Follow
NEW: Republicans are favored to win the House in November, while the Senate is a toss-up, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2022 election forecast.
Republicans have an 87% chance to win the House but only a 53% chance to win the Senate, according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which is now live
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
Follow
Replying to @NateSilver538
And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. LINK
@FiveThirtyEight
·
Follow
NEW: Republicans are favored to win the House in November, while the Senate is a toss-up, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2022 election forecast.
Republicans have an 87% chance to win the House but only a 53% chance to win the Senate, according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which is now live
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
Follow
Replying to @NateSilver538
And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. LINK
13
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:38 pm to Jbird
If we can just take back the house we might be able to ride this out to 2024.
SCOTUS is safe, Senate is deadlock.
Gridlock
SCOTUS is safe, Senate is deadlock.
Gridlock
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:39 pm to Jbird
President Hillary approves of these polls.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:40 pm to Jbird
quote:
And here's my overview.
Here's my overview: Until after August, nobody knows a damned thing.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:41 pm to Jbird
It’s funny how the Dems never have “bad” candidates. All the salt of the earth.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:44 pm to Jbird
I read a 53% chance of winning the senate as 53 R seats in the senate. If Murkowski isn't one of them, that's as much as we can hope for.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:46 pm to Jbird
Hersch "Nate" Silver is a mess!
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:47 pm to Jbird
quote::
1/6 endorser
Great pollster, totally feeling the pulse of the country
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:49 pm to Jbird
I'm kind of curious if the polling companies have learned anything after 2016 and 2020. Nate's work will always be reliant on this data.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:01 pm to Jbird
quote:
1/6 endorser
What does this even mean? A catch-all for anyone who feels like like they were cheated out of the democratic process?
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:04 pm to Jbird
The senate could be tough for Rs. And then Beto will run against Cruz again in 2024.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:13 pm to Jbird
Prediction:
GOP picks up 55 House seats. 265 GOP and 170 Dem.
GOP picks up 2 Senate seats. 52 GOP and 48 Dem (46 Dem and 2 Is that caucus with Dems).
GOP picks up 55 House seats. 265 GOP and 170 Dem.
GOP picks up 2 Senate seats. 52 GOP and 48 Dem (46 Dem and 2 Is that caucus with Dems).
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:24 pm to Jbird
Are they taking into consideration where cheating has and hasn't been fixed. If not anyone putting much faith into their forecast will be in for a lot of disappointment.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:02 pm to Jbird
quote:
53% chance to win the Senate,
Thanks Trump.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News